Tintin
21d ago
Sure, but:
- Just because the stock prices would likely pump then (when it is 100% obvious production is fucked for X time), doesn't mean they're correct not to pump now (when things are more complicated, timeline-wise). Even a blind man will start running when he hears everyone panicking.
- if, hypothetically, oil stocks would refuse to move then, you would still hold on to your assumption that the market knows better, and propose alternative explanations!
- there already is some damage to middle eastern oil facilities
Tintin
21d ago
The thing is, I could also say something like that: being neither a jew nor a muslim, I too wish to wash my hands of the israel-palestine conflict, and not send any money to either. And yet, if a third party talked with each of us at length, I bet he'd characterize me as strongly pro-Israel and you as strongly pro-Palestine. And this is not a mistake. One can't "identify as" neutral, though many try.
Last election you said you were probably voting BSW (far-left splinter party with pro-Russia positions led by a communist). You seem to think Palestinians are and always will be justified to "fight back" in any and every way because of past grievance, hence, total innocence of the wretched.
Tintin
21d ago
I don't want to sound like a prosecutor, but do you deny your left-wing, anti-nato, pro-Palestine views, and are you now, or have you ever, been a member...?
I'm establishing a bubble here. If those are your opinions, then you will tend to see them in others with greater frequency than you would in the general population.
Tintin
22d ago
Plus you're Russian, which have their "Ostalgie" in the 90s. Plus you hold roughly Chomskyite views on the evil of the West, america, israel, and the contrasting fundamental innocence of the Wretched of the world, like the khmer rouge, milosevic putin and hamas.
Tintin
22d ago
Yeah, my social democrat lower middle class parents were devastated. Even by european leftist standards, /u/4bpp is extreme in his anti-americanism and anti-israelism.
European anti-Americanism works in layers, as in scott's counter-signaling model. The politicians at the top/international elite are atlanticist, the leftist upper middle class is anti, the broad middle class is pro again, the high working class "conspirationist podcast" tranche is against, and real proles/idle poor love American soaps/action movies again.
Tintin
22d ago
I don't believe the market anymore. I imagine my counterpart: a guy in glasses looking at the discrepancy between the rising oil prices and the unmoved oil companies; not reacting, because he thinks he knows those companies, their current balance sheets, he has status quo bias; he thinks that surely things will go back, trump will taco, and the future curve has a reassuring bend; but in reality, this is merely probable, it's not sure at all. They are not the same companies they were a month ago; the possibility that the hormuz strait stays closed should be priced in, and it isn't.
Tintin
22d ago
Which observers believed that the US can't enjoy air superiority against Iran?
I don't think air superiority is the right term for what the US enjoys above iran... What's above air supremacy? air superlativity?
The Coalition lost 70 planes in the first gulf war. Are there any confirmed plane losses, aside from the three who fell to Kuwaiti friendly fire? Or is this propaganda?
And the entire leadership was wiped out, that's new too. I thought the iranians had a chance to damage an american warship, since the ukrainians and argentinians managed to sink russian and english boats. It's a complete massacre, come on.
Tintin
22d ago
Best Hindsight Trader: If, around 15-25 February, you thought trump was going to attack iran in the next weeks, what should you have done ?
Buy oom USO calls expiring march 20 for 1500 % gain. Which are just repackaged oil futures, but I'm not fucking with margin.
What I did instead: bought oom spy puts expiring march 20. Exited yesterday for modest gains.
Very interesting that the other possibility, short-term oom calls on american oil companies, also wouldn't have worked. Despite the record rise in oil prices, they barely moved. Apparently the market thinks this will all blow over in a week? OK, buying oom calls on oil companies.
Tintin
24d ago
Why don't you leave? You say yourself this could get way worse if the interceptors are all used up and the boats stranded. That time you sped up when you saw missiles in the sky, that was literally a sign from heaven, followed by correct instincts kicking in. When you calmed down and drove home, that was the insane reaction. It's not worth it to take a 1% chance of things getting really bad, let alone 20%(!!!!).
When you're on a sinking boat, the last thing you hear is don't panic. But is my duty to inform you that if you die by debris or dehydration, the rest of the world will shrug and say "well, why didn't he leave?".
Tintin
25d ago
I don't really think the US, being a major fuel exporter, benefits from this. Or that they are morally obligated to keep the lanes open. I don't buy that trump's doing it to help allies or the world economy (because, tariffs). It's Trump's 70's real estate moghul understanding of economics, where high oil prices are terrible and cause stagflation in new york.
Tintin
26d ago
I was going to say the opposite: it's incels who don't actually exist (they already constantly argue that female incels don't exist, so they're half right).
If you're comfortably celibate, but refuse to rule out a relationship with a perfect, infatuated woman who shows up at your gamer den with homemade lasagna, do you fall into inceldom? If so, then a lot of women are incels.
It's all haggling about price in the end. Some people's orders get filled, and others' don't. Most "incels" could lower their standards, or increase their efforts (increase their offer), so the concept of "involuntary" dissolves into meaninglessness.
Tintin
26d ago
Consider the opportunity costs; as you say, you could get 10-20k/y by investing it, with which you could also pay your rent. In any case, given the likelihood that you're going to move, possibly to Europe, it's a moot point: you shouldn't buy a house.
Tintin
26d ago
Fuck the house, the car, and especially the money market/bonds, just index fund it. If you didn't need a car before, you shouldn't buy one now: it's a separate issue. This is also true, though to a lesser degree, for the house. Break the proletarian cycle of "have money => spend money". Finance and consumption are different ledgers.
Tintin
27d ago
My objection wasn‘t about extreme bullying, I just don't think turning everyone into turbo-normies with your extra mild, 100% less abrasive, I-can‘t-believe-it‘s-not-real-bullying bullying is a good thing.
Sure, some nerds could use a primer on how normies function, how they communicate, and what lies they expect. In many ways normies are better adapted, and wiser, than bullying victims. Some of the lessons imparted by bullying may serve a useful social purpose, like hygiene preventing epidemics.
But by and large I can't sanction your blatant normie apologism. Most normie norms are zero sum social games, and quite a few discourage truth-telling. Which though personally beneficial, is just damaging on a societal level.
Tintin
28d ago
Every time the mob comes for someone, there's a tendency to point and laugh at the guy, even from his ideological allies. Mostly to reassure themselves that it couldn't happen to them, partly to avoid splash from their low-status ally.
But what does it mean to be nothing like damore? To be so perfectly socialized that one never dare go against 'the room'. To be so risk averse that one gladly sacrifices personal integrity, employer's welfare, and tolerates daily injustices, just to keep one's job. Are we to bully nerds so they can become this worm of a man?
Tintin
29d ago
Bought some spy puts last week because I was certain trump would do it, but now I‘m thinking, that was stupid, spy doesn‘t need to care. I should have bet the event directly, or calls on oil.
Tintin
29d ago
You can‘t really live your life in expectation, it‘s exhausting. Think of all the men who make themselves presentable, go out, and carry an „emergency condom“, that never gets used. Those hours grooming, and cleaning up their rooms, have terrible ROI. I also weep for the nofappers, who forgo hundreds of orgasms in the hope of maybe one. That math cannot compute.
It‘s one thing to make an effort when you know someone‘s coming; it‘s another to do it for the remote chance that someone might be coming – purely for the sake of the panopticon, for the unseen seer, the social conscience. You don‘t want to be one of those people who could never take a sabbatical because they‘re afraid of a hypothetical HR guy asking them what this hole in the CV was. And what's the point of being alone if you can't let a sock rest on the floor once in a while?
That said, when I spend a few months barely talking to anyone, I talk to myself more often. That‘s perfectly fine of course, balance is maintained. The problem is, I start doing it in the presence of others who are currently talking to me. While they tell me their day or vacation, I mutter to myself about something else, because I have lost my tolerance for social boredom. Which isn‘t fine; considered by fellow humans as neither friendly nor sane behaviour. But maybe they're being social-normative, and I'm actually giving them valuable feedback on their skill as a raconteur.
Tintin
2mo ago
To be clear, your prediction is that if the americans are out, and Russia invades Poland, Russia will just win?
I'm 99% confident they'd lose, based on the ukrainian precedent, the damage they already took, and various bar graphs of resources available to Europe vs Russia.
Tintin
2mo ago
It's annoying to have to endure pearl harbor and then go island by island against a fanatical enemy.
I find your position puzzling: you describe eurocrats as detached from reality but agree with their outdated view of Russian military power?
Tintin
2mo ago
Cancelling our alliance makes the US neutral, not an enemy. Why wouldn't they sell? Does the neo-US under Trump hate money? Not that American gear is even necessary to beat a country with a fraction of your GDP, population, military budget.
If it's not a threat, than the argument "if we let them take Ukraine, they'll come for us next" makes absolutely no sense.
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They can be a nuclear threat, without being an invasion threat - like North Korea to Japan.
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Just because they are weak and their loss in a war inevitable, doesn't mean they won't attack. Such people overestimate themselves, their war plans rely on the other's side's morale breaking (Russia in Ukraine, Japan at pearl harbor). We can't let them have ukraine because it would encourage them in their delusion that our morale will break when they attack us.
Tintin
2mo ago
I think it's very relevant who pays for it. Paying for it is the act of an ally, selling that of a neutral. Refusing to sell is hostile, it's siding with Russia - and we haven't even officially ended our alliance yet.
I don't understand your other question, the argument against appeasement. I have neither desire nor need to appease Russia, none. They are evil and weak and getting weaker every day. They should get kicked harder, bleed some more. We should escalate.
Tintin
2mo ago
Trump already did cut support for Ukraine?
Yes, europe will be able to handle russia on its own, easy. The politicians are largely dickless and slow to adapt to the new reality, starting with merz. But I think another, already pre-programmed, humiliating session of trump's retarded ideas and insults should do it. You could see european politicians' heads slowly emerging from the sand at Davos, before Trump backed down and Rutte kissed his ass again.
Tintin
2mo ago
On China: You are right to doubt our commitment. Everything else aside, Trump‘s and his supporters‘ comments reek of hubris, jingoism and imperial sickness. And the last thing europe needs is to get sucked into a huge war against a formidable enemy like china because of american pride. So from a european perspective, the alliance is doing less and less for us, and the probability that it could cost us catastrophically keeps increasing.
Americans want a level of compensation (delian tribute, really) we‘re never going to give – because it‘s not like we‘d fall to russian conquest if you just leave ; post WWII yes, but the wolf isn‘t at the door anymore. A chihuaha perhaps, or a wounded pygmy bear – and a panda, but they‘re vegetarian, as far as we know.
Anyway, the question of „who was a bad ally first“ is all rear-view mirror stuff. Whoever „started the breakup“ is irrelevant, we agree the relationship is bad now, so let‘s just end it.
And maybe some people voted hitler because they were really anti-tobacco. I'm sure you contain multitudes. But you vote BSW, so you get labeled as a leftist, and imo you should accept that. It's fine, you can be a leftist, in fact there aren't enough here. Let's skip the whole israel issue since we both said we'd rather not talk or care about it.
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