Well I'm calling it for Harris - the people I know in D.C. are very calm and expecting a Blue victory. Could be underestimating him like previously, but in the context of the Selzer poll it seems like people don't want to be blamed if the predictions are off and are seeing a Harris win as very likely.
Come back to laugh at me later if this wrong.
Edit: Leaving this up for posterity. :)
Throwaway05
18d ago
The way I model this for myself is by asking "would I rather watch Top Gun in a movie theater or this setup." Especially with IMAX....movie theater wins. Sound is part of it, but it's also just that much more immersive.
Throwaway05
18d ago
There are a number of things that could be done by bad people that are more effective.
A few things prevent this:
-Lots of this stuff is trend based.
-Lots of this stuff is supposed to be showy, certain things are less so.
-Lots of stuff is enormously more impactful than what we normally see, but everyone who is aware of those options doesn't publicize them.
I'm being vague because the idea is not to give anyone any ideas.
Throwaway05
20d ago
What about a discussion with your boss?
"Are you guys going to fire me?"
"Uhhh nooooooooo."
vs.
"At the time of this meeting we do not plan to fire you anytime soon."
With the former I'm going to be aware and can plan accordingly, with the latter I might be fooled by any of the technicalities in that sentence or the more proficient lying.
Throwaway05
21d ago
Have you seen a doctor yet? You'll probably need an ENT.
This could be a million things. Atypical anatomy. Something like allergies or GERD causing odd problems.
Serious things are possible and you'll want to rule them out.
Throwaway05
21d ago
(It is hard to cancel a doctor in private practice.)
Not necessarily. Private pay patients have choice and can google, in Cali they may avoid Scott.
You also have to not piss off your partners, staff, malpractice provider, landlord, etc. Again in Cali can be a problem.
Throwaway05
21d ago
Yeah I think the medical side of things are most worried about the flu side of things. Monkeypox doesn't excite me, Myco isn't a big deal.
A Kessler cascade is one of my biggest fears though, yikes.
Throwaway05
23d ago
Welllllll no.
I know Scott's article makes a case but it's way more complicated than that.
Sleep medicine, Psychiatry, and PCPs all have wildly different views about Melatonin all of which can be simplified as "sure, fine, it's safe" but a lot is happening under the hood there.
Some evidence it does absolutely nothing.
Research is complicated because anxious college students, the elderly, someone in a Psychiatric inpatient unit recovering from an episode of something, and a 40 year old man with a bowel perf in the hospital all have wildly different sleep needs and problems. Makes research very hard.
Then you add in the stuff like spaced dosing being more effective...
Throwaway05
23d ago
Once you get used to pepper enough you can still taste the flavor and so on even at high heats.
Think of it like metal music - once you get used to the genre you can hear the melodies and vocal talent on display, but if you aren't used to it can sometimes sound like random noises and screaming.
Throwaway05
24d ago
On this note, I have a large number of friends who live in a Blue state, and have a tenuous connection to a swing state (for instance their parents live there) and they are just registering and voting in the swing state via absentee ballot.
Anyone who can swing it.
Throwaway05
25d ago
Like I said pain is complicated, likewise pharm is complicated - some people are fast metabolizers of certain medication and get no effect at all.
Personally I find NSAIDs to be even better for low dose opiates for pain associated with significant inflammation (for me).
Throwaway05
25d ago
The physiology of pain is very complicated. Briefly - Ibuprofen is an NSAID, a non-steroidal anti-inflammatory drug it basically works by turning off a part of the inflammatory response which is a large part of most types of pain. Bowel pain? Inflammation. Healing wound? Inflammation. Stub your toe? Inflammation.
If you have the right type of pain it can be immensely effective, even more effective than opioids in the sense that it can actually "heal" the pain instead of just doing other stuff (if swelling is pushing on a nerve for instance).
However it can be bad for you because you need inflammation......
For the wrong type of pain it's not going to do a lot.
A good rule of thumb is that if swelling is involved you'll want to use ibuprofen, if it's not Tylenol.
However how functional your liver kidneys, and gastric system etc. are matters a lot.
Throwaway05
25d ago
Inspired by another poster who wrote about misadventures with Tylenol, I just want to provide a brief commentary on medications.
More medication is not necessarily more better.
Many medications essentially work by targeting a receptor of interest or receptors of interest.
If you double the dose you might go from 95% of the effect you want to 98% of the effect you want, while also saturating other receptors that cause side effects.
For ones that are more receptor specific (like Ibuprofen (Advil)) we find that things like doubling the dose from 400 to 800 has little impact on pain, more of an impact on anti-inflammatory properties, and a massively increased risk of side effects.
Don't just take a handful of pills expecting more to do more of what you want!
Throwaway05
25d ago
4000mg acetaminophen 1h before, so it has time to properly kick in;
Unless you have a relevant advanced degree and significant domain specific knowledge DO NOT DO THIS.
Tylenol overdose is one of the worst ways to do imaginable.
Throwaway05
26d ago
One of the things that I found interesting was Joe talking afterwards about how he couldn't pin Trump down. It makes sense! He's a good interviewer, politicians in general and Trump in particular manage to dodge and weave - but Joe makes it explicit.
And I think we spend a lot of time Monday morning quarterbacking communication and would do no better without additional training or something.
Throwaway05
26d ago
Interesting. Again I don't think it's invalid to not be about Trump, but I did find it very entertaining - Joe is a great interviewer but it felt like he was on the Trump ride and at times sitting there going "wow." The anecdote about the Lincoln bedroom isn't particularly interesting, but the fact that it was Trump saying it and the way he said it was.
If I want to hear about the technical details of Space X I want an engineer, if I want to hear Elon do his thing I want to hear Elon. Talking over Joe, being hard to pin down. That's part of the Trump experience.
And again, no problem if you don't like that or aren't about it in this situation because you want to see Joe nail him down on the JFK stuff.
From a campaign perspective you have Trump sitting down and seeming more or less normal, with it (despite media push about that) and reasonable (despite reputation about that) for multiple hours.
Someone else called it relatively boring but if I'm Trump that's what I want to be here given that so many people have heard me called senile Hitler.
Also for what it's worth I know some people who have met him, and this interview matches what casual interactions with him are supposedly like. Don't know if there is anything else under the hood however.
Throwaway05
26d ago
I think it helps if you try not to parse it like high density scientific style communication (much of the diet of most people here) or usual focused politician/PR boilerplate.
It's more like two guys smoking weed and shooting the shit, but one of them has to periodically say some campaign related bullcrap.
It's all over the place, Trump goes on these asides, but I was enthralled with the first ten minutes or so - it's easy to listen to, shockingly focused for his reputation, and charismatic as hell (this is coming in as someone who hasn't really heard him do anything long form before).
My suspicion is that most of the people here who didn't like it were already pretty anti-Trump or very logic brained. Both of those are totally fine, but it's worth considering a more "typical" person might be more directly buying what he's selling here. This is very much one of the ways high end charisma can manifest itself, and in one of Joe's post-game type things he even talks about how hard it is wrangle Trump, which is interesting given how proficient of an interviewer JR clearly is.
Throwaway05
26d ago
The media blitz on this front has been very strong, it's tough to consistently completely disregard "experts."
Throwaway05
26d ago
He knows exactly what he's doing.
As a point of fascination with Trump I'm not really sure if he knows exactly what he's doing or he's just an entity who has gone through enough selection pressure to emerge as a thing that naturally does this kinda stuff.
Throwaway05
26d ago
He called it "the weave" and says it's the mark of a good speaker if they can weave multiple different things together but still come back home at the end.
Again has someone who has never heard him talk at length I was really impressed by the answer about a thing, shove in a random campaign talking point in a reasonableish way, go back to the thing.
He's clearly still very with it.
Throwaway05
26d ago
Yeah to some extent it just seemed like two dudes talking about a bunch of random stuff with a moderate degree of intelligence. For Trump that's a big win.
Throwaway05
26d ago
Sorry that was in subjective hours as experienced by Hillary Clinton being forced to listen to Trump. I apologize for my lack of clarity.
Throwaway05
26d ago
Trump's interview with Joe Rogan is out. I think it should be mandatory viewing, as someone who has read a lot about both of them but never heard either speak at length I had some interesting surprises.
I spotted a few major pieces of culture war fodder.
-
Joe apparently didn't want to do this because he was worried it would end up being fluff or making Trump look good.
-
I do think it makes Trump look good. It's the beer test, implemented, and for all to see. Many people have the instant opposite visceral opinion. As with everything about this, that's interesting.
-
Most here have concerns about legacy media, I think this adroitly makes the case against legacy media - as does Joe himself explicitly multiple times during the interview.
-
I've polled some Kamala supporters and they all think she'd have done just as well, but I highly doubt that.
-
Trump gets asked about election stealing...and some of his answer kinda matches some of the "best" answers we see here (complaining about procedural changes and so on).
At time of this posting it's at 18 million views in the same number of hours.
Throwaway05
29d ago
You're putting a lot of words in my mouth, which I'll attribute to your repeatedly mentioned intellectual exhaustion.
It's possible, because I've had this conversation many, many times and nobody seems to learn or listen, but calling me "exhausted" is straight up ad hominem.
You won't catch me saying the affirmative action policies are good, but there still aren't a large number of minorities present in medicine, it's mostly the Whites and Asians involved in the rat race. People drop out/abandon because it doesn't seem worth the money and they can't hack it, which they will often not admit.
With the tensions present in medicine today we can't get doctors to work where we need them with salaries we have, but all of the suggested solutions to the problem reduce salaries...
You'll get worsening shortages, or more realistically the two tiered system we've started to develop.
That's a fair point, although quite a few of the people I've talked to today are under the impression that Trump has a magic ability to instantiate an army from the aether. TDS is still real.
Although on a counterfactual note I think we should be pleased that institutions seems to be prepping either way. That's more competence than I've come to expect as of late.
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