TheFooder
1mo ago
HAH! I think that as well. Give the guy 5 years and he'll be a progressive sweetheart again... if it's convenient, of course. The ire directed at him has always seemed superficial to me.
TheFooder
1mo ago
I had the same thought. Presumably they have some type of detailed records and it's not just an intern running SpeedTest on their browser. Also, one might presume that part of the investment would be to bring more routers online to increase bandwidth and some amount of service decrease could indicate the need for greater funding. Of course, a For-Profit compnany should have it's own money so I'm not that sympathetic.
TheFooder
1mo ago
You may be interested in trading on my exchange, www.Bitnomial.com
We offer hashrate futures which can be used to hedge against price fluctuations and power shortages. It's mostly useful for larger, crypto native businesses, but if you wanted to reach out to our FCM (the part of the business that handles customers) they may be able to give you more insight into costs and on-boarding.
At a minimum, you might want to look into this site: https://hashrateindex.com/?ref=changelog
TheFooder
1mo ago
https://oversight.house.gov/release/comer-probes-fcc-decision-to-revoke-starlink-funds/
“In 2020, the FCC awarded SpaceX’s Starlink $885.5 million through RDOF. Starlink ‘is the world’s first and largest satellite constellation using a low Earth orbit to deliver a broadband internet capable of supporting streaming, online gaming, video calls’ and more. On August 10, 2022, the FCC rejected Starlink’s long-form application to receive funding through RDOF on the basis that the FCC ‘cannot afford to subsidize ventures that are not delivering the promised speeds or are not likely to meet program requirements,’” Chairman Comer wrote.
“In December 2023, the Commission reaffirmed its decision to deny the award to Starlink. More specifically, the FCC again ‘determined that Starlink failed to demonstrate that it could deliver the promised service.’ Notably, however, FCC Commissioners Brendan Carr and Nathan Simington have spoken against the Commission’s decision […] Commissioner Carr has argued that the FCC is now among a ‘growing list of administrative agencies that are taking action against Elon Musk’s businesses.’ The FCC must ground its decision-making in law and not politics,” Chairman Comer continued.
Not sure if I have much to add, I didn't see anyone talk about this, but may have missed it.
I understand that a lot of people have it out for Musk, but this seems blatantly partisan and all culture war. Is there a not-culture war aspect to this? $885 million seems like small potatoes compared to all the other numbers that have been floated around lately. I have a hard time strong-manning the decision to not release the funds. It seems like another pebble in the bucket of reasons why Musk, for the sake of his ambitions and livelihood has to support Trump. People can get mad about it, but what else is the dude supposed to do with the power of the Dems fully against him?
TheFooder
1mo ago
would cost you $1.06 right now.
My point is this wasn't the case a few days ago. I could have bought Harris at $0.48 and sold Trump at $0.56 (aka buy 'No' at $0.44). Selling at market today would have been profit.
As for pump and dump, I think these markets are so thin that $850 would look like a pump and there's no reason to think, if it was a pump, that there was only a single individual involved. Volume doubled for a three day stretch, so something was happening and it was unlikely a single person.
I'm not confident in anyone winning anything...again, my point. I think the actual price per contract should be $0.50.
I'm also not trying to make 'real money' on prediction markets. I don't really understand who would do that...but w/e. What I'm interested in is how that market functions and how closely my predictions skew toward reality. Though, with your suggestion, I may take a closer look at Polymarket.
TheFooder
1mo ago
Couldn't we also find this stuff on the moon? Why not the moon? I would presume every crater has something interesting at its center. It just seems like the most obvious place to start but I rarely see it mentioned or discussed.
I'm not super up-to-date on all the latest space exploration talk, so maybe someone can give me the tl;dr.
TheFooder
1mo ago
I'm left hoping that the winning candidate is not able to implement their policies.
The only sane point-of-view in modern American presidential politics.
TheFooder
1mo ago
The issue isn't about how the bet resolves, speculation is about scalping price movements on the margins.
If a true-beliver wants to move the markets, they can, by buying a bunch of shares at a certain price (or prices). I one is certain Trump will win and one wants to make it look like there's some support, buying contracts at $0.55 (or thereabouts) is pretty rational because if he wins the investor more-or-less doubles their money.
For me, a person who believes the actual market is 50/50 and $0.50 is the right price for both contracts I can take advantage of these swings to scalp a few bucks with limit orders. Over time, I expect the prices to settle back toward the 'real price', which they have, so I just have to be patient and I can win a few bucks here and there based on volatility. The nice thing about markets (at least well designed and functional ones) is that they will always drift back to the correct price even if they fluctuate in strange ways.
My experience with these markets is that you have people with positions, true-believers and you have speculators. The speculators love to see market moves because they can scalp profits. The true-believers are taking out a bet.
TheFooder
1mo ago
I can't speak to Polymarket, but I was watching Predictit pretty closely. I saw a surge in market activity about a week ago with Trump moving from $0.49 to $0.56 and Harris dropping from $0.55 to as low as $0.48. I predicted this was a pump-and-dump and that the prices would inevitably settle back to $0.50-ish (there's not really enough volume to to totally wipe the pump, IMO). I missed the $0.48 shares for Harris, but she's back up to $0.51 and Trump is back down to $0.53. Had I taken the Trump short and gotten in at the Harris Lows I could have made $6 for every $100. Not huge, but basically proves my point that these market moves are opportunities for scalping and the race is strictly 50/50...at least for now.
TheFooder
1mo ago
TheFooder
1mo ago
Thank you for articulating the same question that's been bugging me for years at this point. It's so bonkers even my wife has started wondering what's up with it. People will flip from perfectly lovely to Dead-in-their-eyes-TDS without any warning and it's terrifically frightful!
TheFooder
1mo ago
I don't think I said it was a bipartisan feeling. If I wasn't clear, what I meant was that Biden had an opportunity to do one thing that would have a) shored up the center bringing non-Trumpists back from the brink, and b) possibly, actually making our elections stronger and more transparent. From where I'm sitting it appears the exact opposite has happened with less optics into voter roles, voting dates, mail-in ballot rules,etc. I am short-USA so I don't really pay that close attention to the details, (are non-citizens voting in this election? Who knows?) but from a 50k ft. perspective, Biden missed the boat big time.
There is no reason we should have any doubts about the results and getting the vibes right is the one thing a president can do. Taking the position that this is only a Republican problem misses the elephant for the trees. We're in a situation where every candidate from here until our final pitiful collapse can claim shenanigans and everyone will believe it to the extent necessary for their side to win. The more opaque our elections the weaker the union.
TheFooder
1mo ago
This was my reasoning behind the single Biden agenda I wanted to hear: a bi-partisan electoral committee focused on shoring up confidence in our elections. Democrats would not want this because it might give Trump or Republicans some faint hope, or possibly be viewed as a tacit admittance of guilt. There's also no evidence that Republicans would accept anything anyone said...so here we are. Nonetheless, the president's job, aside from bombing foreigners, is to represent the vibes of the nation and the vibes were: our elections are total crap. A smarter, stronger, more introspective leader would have realized the need to, at least, try and shore up the center.
Oh well...dreams of a bygone era.
TheFooder
1mo ago
Can you even put $7 mil into these markets? Even spread across all the ones I can think of and every possible contract, it boggles my mind.
TheFooder
1mo ago
https://www.predictit.org/terms-and-conditions
- Research and Educational Facility PredictIt is intended and offered as an experimental research and educational facility of Victoria University of Wellington, New Zealand (“Provider” or “We”), not as an investment market or a gambling facility. PredictIt is not regulated by, nor are its operators registered with, the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) or any other regulatory authority.
Provider has received a no-action-letter from the Division of Market Oversight of the Commodity Futures Trading Commission. Without explicitly asserting jurisdiction over Provider or any of its submarkets, this letter, dated October 29, 2014, extended no-action relief to Provider's Political and Economic Indicator Markets (the latter limited to students, faculty and staff of participating universities). The letters are available at the CFTC website as part of their Freedom of Information Act documents. Pursuant to this letter, there is “a limit of 5000 total traders in any particular contract”, and “a limit on investment by any single participant in any particular contract [of] $850”.
You ain't getting very far on an $850 investment at 50-50 odds.
TheFooder
1mo ago
I just got an email from Rescue the Republic, which I supported with some cash. The gist is, "Yay, we had 4 million Youtube views...Americans are taking notice!" I've seen similar things with Trump videos on X. Always some form of "something happened on this platform...Americans are totally into it!"
I understand that most viewers of Youtube are still Americans (correct me if that's no longer true) so, yeah, maybe in some basic way the statement is true, but I cringe whenever I see these types of claims. It's the Internet, man...you have no idea who watched your video, upvoted your comment or forwarded you tweet.
Am I way out over my skis here? Is it a safe claim to make or is the rest of the world being under-counted? am I right to side-eye these kinds of claims?
TheFooder
1mo ago
Not sure how people take Tulsi Gabbard these days, but she just posted about her visit to the affected areas and said it's pretty bad. I would give her report more credibility than random tic-toks and tweets: https://substack.com/home/post/p-149909700
overall I don't know what to believe as I've only heard random anecdotes, mostly from substack.
TheFooder
1mo ago
I've been skimming the NRC documents looking for any plan they might have. It all looks like, "make the NRC better," with no statement anywhere I've seen about increasing or reducing nuclear power anywhere. https://www.nrc.gov/docs/ML2207/ML22076A075.pdf
This was what I was looking for: https://www.energy.gov/ne/articles/nrc-certifies-first-us-small-modular-reactor-design
A coworker had a friend working on the project that got approval. It's the first approval in something like 50 years.
There's also this: https://www.energy.gov/articles/doe-announces-900-million-accelerate-deployment-next-generation-light-water-small-modular
I have a feeling nuclear is not out of the fight yet and what you will see is something closer to municipalities, small regional utilities and large businesses investing in their own power generators using small scale modular reactors. I'm no expert though, so take it with a grain of salt.
TheFooder
2mo ago
driver since 1991 I've driven in almost every US state and Canada, and many places in Europe. I've been a passenger in the Mid-east and various countries in Asia. I've driven cars, vans and trucks up to 22' with the military. I've towed trailers and driven professionally as a service call technician. I've probably wasted a third of my life in cars.
#1 Driving sucks and it's gotten worse. There's more worse traffic than 30 years ago. Way more distracted driving, more congestion, more bicycles, more motorcycles, more semis. Some significant portion of traffic are lost gig drivers. In Europe, my experience on the highways is that they are mostly fine, but back roads can be tiny and terrifying when large vehicles--which were not really a thing in Europe back in the day--come barreling toward you. The middle East (UAE, Jordan) is the absolute most insane driving I've ever seen. Thailand is crazy because entire families will be hanging out on a moped doing 60 down the highway in a rainstorm.
#2 You're definitely tired and exhausted from being on full alert the entire time you're operating a vehicle. You have to maintain 360 degree, above and below awareness of your vehicle moving at deadly speeds through space and time. You're looking out for yourself, for other vehicles and for the comfort and safety of your passengers. It's a serious thing that requires full attention and nothing will wear you down faster than pumping road stress blood into your brain.
#3 It takes years of driving experience to 'figure it out' and have a feel for where people are going and who the shits are that need to be avoided at all costs. People drive like they walk, so you you have to constantly assume they do not know you are behind or next to them and presume they might stop at any second. Eventually you will notice that people lead with their bodies and they do this in cars as well. You get a 6th sense that someone is going to change lanes or do u-turns. It's definitely one of those 10k hours things. The only solution is lots of driving experience, so take some road trips. :)
#4 The best drivers are motorcyclists. Stay out of their way.
#5 Everyone is a bad driver >1% of the time.
Tips Make sure you set your mirrors right. Do not drive next to semis. Speed past them if you have to. Be careful when cresting a hill--something might be jsut on the other side out of sight. Always let aggressive drivers pass you and try to remember to stay toward the right on busy streets. Always optimize fore safety over convenience and even the law. Know where you're going before you leave. Learn to ride a motorcycle. Remember people can't see your turn signal if you have you hazards on. Two hands on the wheel!!! :)
TheFooder
2mo ago
I don't think that happens much here in the states, though it might be different business to business. I believe all federal employees are the same.
As for why do people do it? I think you present the best argument a state might use, but it might also just be old-school parochial sexism.
TheFooder
2mo ago
I feel like your best bet is going to be Matt Taibbi Substack, at least as a repository that covers most of these topics.
https://twitterfiles.substack.com/ (I think you can see some of this without a subscription, though I find my sub to Racket News well worth the money. I love the chats with Walter Kirn for instance)
https://greenwald.locals.com/landing/article (Glenn has a lot of stuff behind a subscription paywall. I somehow ended up subscribed so I can see most of it, but don't know the best method now. His stuff with Michael Tracy is pretty good, and might be useful for you since Tracy is still considered a leftist. A lot of Lefties hate Greenwald now--they see him as a sellout)
TheFooder
2mo ago
I have an idea for an on-chain token called The Sovereign that would be granted to all citizens and used for a variety of political activities. I have a feeling I'm reinventing a wheel that exists somewhere (I'm aware of other governance token ideas, but I think mine's different...?). I'm looking to bounce the idea off of some people before I present it to the world and am rewarded with scorn and mockery.
It's been a minute since I've played in this sandbox so, the 'no dumb questions' post seemed a good place to start.
Seems like a reasonable concern. My estimation would be something over $1.5 billion. Something like, "here's the original money, plus another contract." I'd be ok with that. Much over $2 billion--specifically for Star Link--might seem unreasonable without some caveats, like, say, increased deliverables.
More options
Context Copy link