TheDag
Per Aspera ad Astra
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User ID: 616
TheDag
Per Aspera ad Astra
6d ago
Depends on your understanding of the word "rationally."
You could take a sort of meta-rational view and see that people who believe in Christ tend to have better life outcomes, and overall have their values and morals aligned in a more positive-sum way. Therefore the rational decision is to make Him the apex in your set of values.
Something like that. But it's complicated ofc.
TheDag
Per Aspera ad Astra
7d ago
Unless he knew in advance there would be an advertiser boycott and wanted to save money in the long run.
TheDag
Per Aspera ad Astra
14d ago
Llama is probably the way to go if you care about privacy at all. But yes I agree that it can be useful as a sounding board, not to take real advice from though.
TheDag
Per Aspera ad Astra
14d ago
Haha I am a physician but I am not Scott and disagree with him on a large amount of his medical opinions.
What do you disagree with him on?
TheDag
Per Aspera ad Astra
14d ago
I'm curious how the Motte sees using AI for therapy / life advice? Online I'm seeing a ton of people recommend Claude especially, but others are skeptical.
On the one hand I could see it being useful because of the fact that you have nigh-unfettered access to it, and can really dig into deep problems. Also, it's trained on all the therapy texts of course.
The other, more culture war issue, is that due to the way RLHF works, they will likely be pushing one ideological lens over another. Especially about deep topics like morality, relationships, casual sex, etc.
Overall I think it's a fascinating area of development, and I'm still optimistic that LLMs could help people much more than the average therapist. Mainly because I'm pretty bearish on the help people get from the average therapist.
Anyway, what do people think about therapy becoming AI?
TheDag
Per Aspera ad Astra
16d ago
Thank you for pointing out the major issues and reasons why RFK got put in this position.
Pretending that this faction are the smart enlightened ones and others are idiots is Hanania tier propaganda talking point repeated ad nauseum. I find it interesting how a rationalist esqe associated space have this bad behavior as a common norm. A lot of shared people from both spaces and Tabarok retweets approvingly Hanania promoting a Thiel guy as the preferred option over RFK. Unfortunately it is propaganda here because the pro big pharma establishment faction is close minded and has huge tunnel vision.
This is the biggest issue for me. Science(TM) has become a religion, and many rationalish types still follow that religion even when it's obviously promoting false beliefs.
TheDag
Per Aspera ad Astra
20d ago
85% only because Trump himself is a litigious goblin man who obviously don't care about freedom of speech but for the branding.
Hah, quite a line right here! but fair. Thanks for biting friend.
TheDag
Per Aspera ad Astra
22d ago
Alright folks, election is over, now it's predictions time! I want your predictions for what actually gets done in terms of the Republican party platform for 2024, from this site:https://www.donaldjtrump.com/platform
I'm just going to go with the top 10. Now of course these are not precisely defined predictions, but in general I'm going to be predicting something like "is this problem solved, to where the majority of Republican voters would feel it's either no longer an issue, or at least will be happy with what got changed?"
Let me know if you have thoughts on a better way to do this. Now, onto the predictions!
1 SEAL THE BORDER AND STOP THE MIGRANT INVASION
I give this a 70% chance, high conf. that major action is taking to secure the border, make illegal immigrants' lives worse in the U.S.
2 CARRY OUT THE LARGEST DEPORTATION OPERATION IN AMERICAN HISTORY
I'd give this a 15% chance, med. confidence. This one is a doozy.
3
END INFLATION, AND MAKE AMERICA AFFORDABLE AGAIN
30% chance, low confidence. Too many factors in the economy and I don't trust Trump's plan.
4
MAKE AMERICA THE DOMINANT ENERGY PRODUCER IN THE WORLD, BY FAR!
60% chance, med. confidence. There is a lot of low hanging fruit. If Trump and co. can wrangle the bureaucracy, this could happen!
5
STOP OUTSOURCING, AND TURN THE UNITED STATES INTO A MANUFACTURING SUPERPOWER
30% chance, low confidence. It's definitely possible, but rising prices of goods makes this real unpopular.
6
LARGE TAX CUTS FOR WORKERS, AND NO TAX ON TIPS!
40% chance, medium confidence. Gosh I hope so!
7
DEFEND OUR CONSTITUTION, OUR BILL OF RIGHTS, AND OUR FUNDAMENTAL FREEDOMS, INCLUDING FREEDOM OF SPEECH, FREEDOM OF RELIGION, AND THE RIGHT TO KEEP AND BEAR ARMS
95% chance, high confidence. I don't see freedoms/rights getting worse under Trump, personally.
8
PREVENT WORLD WAR THREE, RESTORE PEACE IN EUROPE AND IN THE MIDDLE EAST, AND BUILD A GREAT IRON DOME MISSILE DEFENSE SHIELD OVER OUR ENTIRE COUNTRY -- ALL MADE IN AMERICA
95% chance, low conf. we avoid WW3 under a Trump term. 80% chance we end the war in Europe, med. confidence. Idk about the dome
9
END THE WEAPONIZATION OF GOVERNMENT AGAINST THE AMERICAN PEOPLE
40% chance, medium confidence anything significant gets done. The Deep State goes Deep.
10
STOP THE MIGRANT CRIME EPIDEMIC, DEMOLISH THE FOREIGN DRUG CARTELS, CRUSH GANG VIOLENCE, AND LOCK UP VIOLENT OFFENDERS
55% chance, medium competence. I think cracking down on crime is doable but, again, quite unpopular for optics. we'll see.
TheDag
Per Aspera ad Astra
25d ago
Howdy. I'd have to look at more of what you're doing but I'd be happy to talk about it if you want to DM.
TheDag
Per Aspera ad Astra
26d ago
A few things:
- Counties in FL get to create charters, essentially being able to pass laws in their own county
- More positions are elected than others states including tax assessors
- The independent county commissioners and special districts have a lot more autonomy than in most states
- Florida has a bunch of retirees and just a lot of money, lol
TheDag
Per Aspera ad Astra
26d ago
The thing about Florida is that due to the incentives down there, they actually by and large have very competent and well paid people working at the county level.
Unfortunately that's not true in the vast majority of states. For most places the human capital operating the local government offices, even and especially the election offices, is pretty damn low quality.
TheDag
Per Aspera ad Astra
28d ago
I like this! How do you square your Catholic faith with wanting life extension? I know a lot of hard core Christians that are against it.
TheDag
Per Aspera ad Astra
28d ago
You misunderstand Catholic funeral rites. Christians absolutely do have a sanctity of the body attached, even after death. Our bodies are what will be resurrected, and perfected.
TheDag
Per Aspera ad Astra
28d ago
Strongly agree with all this. I want things to be serious, and to matter.
TheDag
Per Aspera ad Astra
28d ago
Definitely the ozempic. I do not want a Neuralink chip period, even if it works.
TheDag
Per Aspera ad Astra
28d ago
"Disbanding" the media would be a terrible idea.
Not sure why. Mainstream media is already pretty much dead or dying, being replaced via the capitalist mechanism you use to justify it, making money.
TheDag
Per Aspera ad Astra
28d ago
Woah how have I never heard of all this stuff before? Incredible.
Yeah I strongly believe that there's some ESP/magical stuff they found out and keep under wraps.
TheDag
Per Aspera ad Astra
28d ago
This thread you started is fascinating btw, just thanking you.
Personally I'm starting to believe demons might actually exist. Who knows?
TheDag
Per Aspera ad Astra
28d ago
Good on you! Yeah just judging by the comments, it definitely seems pretty split so far.
TheDag
Per Aspera ad Astra
29d ago
Eh, I'm not nearly as doom and gloom as you. FWIW I don't think America has been a real democracy since at least FDR, if not earlier, lol.
I agree that the deep state agencies' grasp on the political landscape is troubling. I get the sense that now that big tech has gotten more of an understanding of the situation though, there will be a realignment of power. Political or otherwise.
TheDag
Per Aspera ad Astra
29d ago
It was Bizarrely vibes based. No actual clash of ideas or policies, either from the candidates, or from their supporters.
Yeah agreed on this. The almost complete lack of genuine policy proposals, especially from the Harris camp, was shocking to me.
Like... I get that vibes are more important but usually there's at least the veneer of caring about the object level policies. This time it seemed that veneer was totally absent.
TheDag
Per Aspera ad Astra
29d ago
Obligatory Election post!
The US election is finalized tomorrow. Who do you think will win, Trump or Harris? Polymarket currently has Trump at about 58% and Harris at 42%, but these things can change on a dime!
Relatedly, do you think there will be issues certifying the election results? Which side do you think will struggle more if they lose?
And of course - do you think we'll see outright political violence? I certainly hope not, but it's good to be prepared.
Overall, how was your experience of this election? Did it seem noticeably different from any recent elections in any particular way?
No, traditional they come from divine revelation and religious precepts.
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