I expect short term negative economic outcomes on the Canadian side as Trudeau and the Liberals fight a losing trade war until the next federal election, which they will delay as long as possible but lose. Standing up to Trump plays well with the Liberal base, and allows them to blame the bad economy on him, but it won't be enough to salvage the election. The incoming Conservative government will make some concessions, flatter Trump, ramp up the war on Fentanyl, spend more on the military (the last two things they want to do anyways), thus allowing Trump to declare victory and claim he got Trudeau booted from office. Trudeau manages to salvage some shred of his legacy as the guy who stood up for Canada, and the Liberals will claim that their efforts paved the way for the resolution.
End result: minor increase of Canadian/American economic integration with advantage going to USA, and the Liberal party gets an excuse for why they lost the election. If Canadians are lucky the whole thing allows the Conservatives build infrastructure to sell more oil (and other natural resources) to someone other then the USA and/or increase free trade between the provinces.
Edit: Already wrong. Another W for the nothing ever happens crowd. A domestic win for Trudeau certainly.
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I expect short term negative economic outcomes on the Canadian side as Trudeau and the Liberals fight a losing trade war until the next federal election, which they will delay as long as possible but lose. Standing up to Trump plays well with the Liberal base, and allows them to blame the bad economy on him, but it won't be enough to salvage the election. The incoming Conservative government will make some concessions, flatter Trump, ramp up the war on Fentanyl, spend more on the military (the last two things they want to do anyways), thus allowing Trump to declare victory and claim he got Trudeau booted from office. Trudeau manages to salvage some shred of his legacy as the guy who stood up for Canada, and the Liberals will claim that their efforts paved the way for the resolution.
End result: minor increase of Canadian/American economic integration with advantage going to USA, and the Liberal party gets an excuse for why they lost the election. If Canadians are lucky the whole thing allows the Conservatives build infrastructure to sell more oil (and other natural resources) to someone other then the USA and/or increase free trade between the provinces.
Edit: Already wrong. Another W for the nothing ever happens crowd. A domestic win for Trudeau certainly.
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