Supah_Schmendrick
No bio...
User ID: 618
Supah_Schmendrick
2mo ago
I have no idea if it would sell, but that description reads exactly like a book I would snap up in a heartbeat from a second-hand book shop, read until the spine broke, and then madly evangelize to all my friends to the point of exasperation.
On the other hand, you've been around the motte and its predecessors to know that I'm not exactly the median reading public, so ymmv.
Happy to be of any assistance I can, even if it's just cheerleading, and eventually buying a copy of whatever you produce.
Supah_Schmendrick
2mo ago
I actually don't know if we're in that situation. It would not surprise me if the Secret Service took incidents involving a Dem VP significantly more seriously than incidents involving Trump.
Supah_Schmendrick
2mo ago
Yeah, but where's the right-wing equivalent of, e.g. the Symbionese Liberation Army, or black bloc?
Supah_Schmendrick
2mo ago
How many attempts have been made on Harris's life, again?
Ideally we wouldn't know even if the answer was greater than zero, to avoid inspiring copy-cats. The press coverage of the Trump assassination attempts is good for transparency and public discourse, but does have costs.
Supah_Schmendrick
2mo ago
Israel is an outpost of the West.
No, it is the home of last resort for the 16 million Jews alive in the world today - the country that will always, unequivocally accept them with open arms, no matter who else turns against them.
The disanalogies include Israel having populated its land with its people rather than ruling over an alien ethnic majority, Israel having nuclear weapons and a highly competent military (with exceptions, the Crusaders generally did not).
Pretty big differences.
it looks to me like Israel’s long term existence is precarious
The Saudis are looking for any excuse to normalize relations with Israel because they've decided they'd rather be modern and trade with their neighbors even if they don't like them all that much - like normal states - than nurse ethnic blood-feuds.
it has to find a way to achieve a peaceful settlement with its neighbours
This was called the Abraham Accords.
The unexpected nature of history makes me think we should do a lot more geopolitical risk management than we do.
There are very wealthy businesses that make their money advising other businesses and government agencies on things like this. They are mostly selling hokum.
Supah_Schmendrick
2mo ago
Yes, it's called nationalism.
Supah_Schmendrick
2mo ago
Having big chunks of your chain of command and logistics network in hospital or recuperating at the same time is a major hit to capability as well.
Supah_Schmendrick
2mo ago
Israel can defend itself
This is Israel defending itself against a group which has, over the past 11 months, fired tens of thousands of explosive rockets (you know, explosive devices) at random into civilian areas (i.e. your definition of "terrorism"), forcing the evacuation of hundreds of thousands of Israelis from hundreds of square miles of territory.
We have ZERO evidence that the U.S. was involved in any way in this, and since I'm given to understand the U.S. generally sucks at the types of infiltrations that sabotaging all of Hezbollah's pagers would have required, I place a low likelihood on the U.S. being significantly involved.
Supah_Schmendrick
2mo ago
nAd now watching these videos of pagers exploding reminds me of the videos I've seen of Islamic terrorism: Life going on as normal in a marketplace or something, then an explosion with women and children around.
One is an explosion coming from a suicide belt or backpack which is designed to harm and kill everyone in the immediate vicinity, particularly those women and children.
The other is sabotaging a pager handed out by a terrorist organization to its members with a small enough amount of explosives that even the person wearing the pager or keeping it in their pocket isn't reliably killed.
These are not the same.
I just don't understand the point of an operation like this except to provoke fear and a regional conflict. It's not going to cause Hezbollah to surrender or significantly disrupt their wartime capabilities at the northern front.
Are you sure? Knocking out a major communication system sure seems disruptive to me, to say nothing of putting a couple thousand officers, cell leaders, logistics people, etc. in the hospital all at the same time.
It's just a terrorist attack.
I know words are just vibes now, man, but come on. This is an attack on the participating personnel of a combatant organization during ongoing hostilities. That's not terrorism.
Supah_Schmendrick
2mo ago
I mean... wouldn't they just make sure to dismantle a handful of pagers before distributing them from now on?
Depends. Could be their procurement or distribution functions are compromised.
Supah_Schmendrick
2mo ago
Or because the political leadership was in crisis and needed something big and flashy to show off to the public to boost credibility. Or because there is a forthcoming military action that they needed Hezbollah leadership confused, partially-disabled, and disrupted for. There are many potential reasons this capability was triggered now.
Supah_Schmendrick
2mo ago
the publication of the Fourteen Points
I always like Clemenceau's (possibly fake) quip about Wilson's laundry list - "four more than God."
Supah_Schmendrick
2mo ago
Germany was particularly guilty of letting Austria-Hungary do this
Strudlhofs Gone Wild!
The image of the hilariously-named Hotzendorf and Bechtold von und zu Ungarschitz, Frättling und Püllütz just absolutely HOUSING pastries and getting flaky crumbs all over the draft ultimatum to Serbia is sadly ahistorical. It doesn't stop me giggling over it, though.
Supah_Schmendrick
2mo ago
Why just one case?
At least I provided a case, unlike the original, completely unsupported assertion.
You should use a statistic when making an argument like this.
Respectfully, no. Societal cohesion and solidarity is a fragile, fickle thing that we barely understand and do not know how to sustain across lengthy periods. Slapping a number on something doesn't necessarily mean that you're using the right statistic, or that the thing you're trying to measure is even actually legible with the methods and information at hand.
Statistics around illegal immigrants are notoriously unreliable, because many jurisdictions do not cooperate with federal immigration efforts, and illegal immigrants (for completely understandable reasons) are disproportionately likely to use falsified identity documents and avoid getting involved with state agencies, including law enforcement. We don't even actually know how many there are in the country - the media has been using the same number for appx. thirty years, across high and low migration periods alike.
Reasoning from examples has flaws, but at least we can draw direct lines from immigration to particular incidents, like that one.
Supah_Schmendrick
2mo ago
AA is gone.
The Harvard admission statistics for 2024-5 strongly suggest otherwise.
DEI is declining.
- The Democratic nominee for president brags about tripling federal government loans specifically to non-whites.
- Her Vice Presidential nominee, as Governor of Minnesota, signed into law mandatory racial quotas for bodies disbursing state health and community welfare grants. (e.g. MN Statutes secs. 145.9285, Subd. 3; 145.987, Subd. 1). Of course, this already builds on existing "Ethnic Councils" established in 2017, explicitly charged to "work for the implementation of economic, social, legal, and political equality for its constituency" by lobbying the governor and legislature for set-asides, exercising oversight over proposed legislative and administrative changes, promoting racially-affiliated interest groups, and disbursing contracts. (MN Statutes sec. 15.0145)
- Approximately one in five academic jobs requires an ideological litmus test of allegiance to DEI.
- The Department of Education (pdf warning) spends a significant amount of effort on collecting detailed statistics on the racial and gendered breakdown of suspensions, expulsions, and law-enforcement referrals in schools, heavily-hinting that this is racial discrimination...but then tucks the tables with student offenses at the very end, and doesn't provide any details on who's actually doing the offending. In that report, by the way, the Department cites a 2014 "Dear Colleague" letter that threatened loss of federal funding if schools didn't punish black and brown kids less, regardless of their actual behavior, which is apparently still active.
- The Department of Agriculture just doled out over a billion dollars in reparations-style payments to black farmers specifically.
Yeah, I'm going to say DEI is doing problematically fine.
Trump is openly calling for a blood-soaked deportation campaign
As opposed to the blood-soaked results of the fetishization of open immigration?
Even leftists like Matt Yglesias are calling for more immigration restrictions.
Ah yes, Matt "I think fighting dishonesty with dishonesty is sometimes the right thing to do" Yglesias. Clearly he is being fully open and honest about his views, which have changed based on evidence which has convinced him to foreswear his most recent book, "One Billion Americans." (I am being sarcastic; I do not believe for a second that Matt is being honest).
Harris is sprinting away from woke as fast as she can. Ctrl+f for "trans" on her campaign platform brings up only 2 results, both of which deal with "transnational criminal organizations".
Ahhh, but remember - "her values have not changed."
Supah_Schmendrick
2mo ago
Conversely, as you mention, there are some people for whom ["self-improvement culture"] ideas make up no part of their thinking. I genuinely do not know what they are thinking about instead.
From my own personal experience as someone who has never been able to bring myself to give two shits about "self-improvement culture," object-level stuff, mostly. Work and whether I should apply to a new job or try for advancement at my current employer; the Napoleonic Wars or whatever other period of history has grabbed my interest recently; the podcast I am listening to; whether my favorite baseball team would be better or worse if they traded for someone or called up the hot prospect du jour; how to reply to the latest interesting post here; whether my car needs an oil change, etc.
Supah_Schmendrick
2mo ago
I believe its legal now in half the US states, plus all of Canada. I would hardly call that "a few places"
Mere legality isn't what @MadMomzer was talking about. They were referring to a norm where marijuana "is sufficiently embedded in the culture and used by sufficiently large number of respectable, otherwise-law-abiding citizens (including cops, politicians, judges, etc.) that banning it will do more damage to the rule of law than to [users]." Do you think legalization is necessarily equivalent to that?
Supah_Schmendrick
2mo ago
Because they prioritized, and therefore optimized for, getting into those institutions more than others (arguably too much, because Goodhart's law will always have its due).
Supah_Schmendrick
2mo ago
Jewish population of Harvard is about 10%
Given that 2/3rds of non-orthodox jews (i.e. the rich and successful ones living in big liberal coastal cities likely to send their kids to harvard instead of a yeshiva) marry gentiles, that 10% is mostly yankee anyway.
Supah_Schmendrick
2mo ago
Why, in eight years, haven't MAGA Republicans built any real organization outside of Trump's personality?
Because the footsoldiers and bureaucrats who build those organizations (attorneys, accountants, policy-wonks and other recent elite-college grads willing to swallow low salaries in exchange for proximity to power and influence) are overwhelmingly not MAGA, and even not Republican.
Why, in eight years, is there no political heir to Trumpism?
Because Trump has a lot more name-recognition than any other politician, and has a plurality of personal loyalists. He's also very good at attacking rivals, gets basically infinite amounts of free media from mainstream and liberal outlets horrified by him (but who don't realize that their coverage backfires and helps Trump with his base), and the people who rose to challenge him are either out-of-step with the modern conservative electorate (Nikki Haley) or too-online and actually not all that charismatic (DeSantis)
Why, in eight years, isn't there a policy apparatus behind Trump that Trump won't disavow?
Because that would tie Trump to something that he didn't dream up, and his personal policy is basically an anti-NAFTA 1980's Blue Dog Democrat. His genius, such as it is, lies in realizing that policy rhetoric doesn't actually matter all that much.
Why, in eight years, do we lack any MAGA candidates in the Capitol or Governor's Mansions who aren't complete weirdoes?
Because MAGA is so incredibly low-status among wealthy and white-collar folks that only the complete weirdoes are willing to tie themselves to it. Also, Trump has a bad habit of cannibalizing his own supporters to buoy his own efforts. (Does DeSantis count as a weirdo in your view? If so, he's awfully effective for a weirdo)
Supah_Schmendrick
2mo ago
I have to admit that I'm disappointed the microphones will be muted except during designated response times, because it denies us the (admittedly small) chance that, when Kamala tried to talk over a moderator, Trump could butt in with "Excuse Me, ECKS-CYUSE ME, SHE'S SPEAKING!! COMMIE-LA IS SPEAKING!! VERY RUDE!!"
Supah_Schmendrick
2mo ago
Ending wars was so popular that Biden also basically didn't start any new wars.
To be fair to the poor old man, Biden himself was notably part of the "peace wing" in the Obama administration - he opposed getting involved in Libya
Supah_Schmendrick
2mo ago
Being exempted from laws because of an adherence to a particular faith seems to be exactly what the constitution wanted to prevent.
You agree with Justice Scalia circa 1990 on this, but it's a nuanced issue that has been going the other way in recent years.
I disagree with you. This editorial is very bad, and Chuck Todd should feel bad for writing it.
This isn't new. Herbert Hoover's magisterially-dyspeptic magnum opus goes into microscopic detail about all the ways various FDR-administration officials and allied journalists lied and slanted the truth to manage and manipulate public opinion during the depression, New Deal period, and WWII, and the number of people who remember or care today round to zero. Heck, even the "really famous" examples like the NYT lying about the Holodomor in Ukraine, or rabidly defending the Lindsay administration in NYC at the time, then excoriating it in Lindsay's obituary, are just cocktail-party trivia and not seriously internalized lessons.
How do you get "incrementalism" from "the country is politically-divided"? It really smacks of "we just need to make sure we boil the frog slowly so it doesn't jump out." No instinct towards actual compromise or even honest open conflict; just dishonest slow-rolling and gaslighting about ultimate endgames until it's too late and the fait accompli can be imposed on a prostrate foe. Of course, this strategy also has the side-effect of not being at all concerned with actual quality of governance in the mean-time...if you're suffering from a gushing stab wound, incremental care, one bandaid at a time, won't stop you from bleeding out even if stitches or cauterization would really hurt in the short-term.
Our political information ecosystem is primarily geared towards rationalizing already-extant beliefs. That's how you get in people's customized algorithms - feeding them plausible-sounding affirmation of things they already believe. It's not a question of "nuance" or "incrementalism" - what do those even mean in the context of journalism? That you shouldn't report facts if it looks like they lead to an "unnuanced" conclusion or one that is a radical departure from current consensus? And why do we think that our information delivery system should be characterized by the same qualities as policymaking in the first place? To even ask the question betrays the degree to which unbiased investigation has been subordinated to ideological preference.
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