StopSpreadingBullshit
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User ID: 1472
StopSpreadingBullshit
2yr ago
I don't think it's fair. When an American politician lies, Americans blame him personally (or maybe his party, like "GOP always lie"). On the other hand, when someone not from the US lies, the blame is put on culture like in your case "post-Soviet leaders always lie, it's because the culture of mistrust yada-yada". I guess it's sort of outgroup homogeneity?
Right. I don't dismiss the possibility of it being an accident involving a Ukrainian AA missile. Yet I think it's prudent to wait for the results of the investigation. I don't think it would be possible to hide the results of it. Of course, if Americans and Poles will come out and say "it was 100% a Russian missile" — Russians will try to discredit this conclusion, but it will be enough for me.
Well they would say that, wouldn't they?
Also I don't really know how much Polish diplomats value their credibility and how competent they are. Ukrainians had several fuckups, like voting against American declaration on human rights situation in Xinjiang, and then backtracking; or voting against Israel in the UN, and then asking Israel for arms; so even being a Ukrainian I can imagine them screwing it up and lying, even though I wouldn't like that to be the case obviously. But I don't know about Poland.
StopSpreadingBullshit
2yr ago
I think it's probable that it might be more complicated than just "a missile fell on a tractor", but rather it was due to some false positive of a guidance system. Still it doesn't mean that it was intentional. Kinda similar to my theory of COVID-19 — it might be a lab leak, but not an intentional release in order to [decimate Chinese/Americans/old people/enter your reasoning here].
StopSpreadingBullshit
2yr ago
At least for now Poles insist it was a Russian missile. Just came in:
Polish MFA summoned the Russian ambassador.
They'll too take a huge credibility hit if that's indeed a Ukrainian missile.
StopSpreadingBullshit
2yr ago
Another side of the story that might have significance — a Russian missile hit a power plant that was responsible for supplying electricity to the oil pipeline that delivers Russian oil to Hungary, so there was a disruption in the supply.
Orban called for a security meeting over this. Being friendly to Russia, I doubt he will condemn Russia, but who knows.
StopSpreadingBullshit
2yr ago
Many Eastern European countries suffered under the Soviets, but AFAIK there wasn't anything uniquely awful about Poland's experience?
I think it was? The difference with e.g. Ukraine is that Ukrainians were somewhat successfully assimilated, unlike Poland which was a distinct entity even under Russian thumb
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Congress_Poland
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Polish_People%27s_Republic
So on one hand Poles were oppressed by Russians, on the other — they kept their cultural identity and historical memory (that incudes Russian abuses) intact.
Also Estonians, or Lithuanians, or Finns are just less numerous, so you see them less.
An extremely unlucky coincidence is more probable than intentional Russian strike, or Ukrainian provocation though. Putin is a trickster, and a manipulator, yes, but he won't get anything by striking Poland, the only far-fetched explanation (that it's an "off-ramp" that would allow him to justify withdrawal from Ukraine) I think we can dismiss. Also some pro-Russians push the version that it's an attempt of Ukraine to draw NATO into the war — I too find not credible. Mostly because American GEOINT and MASINT is quite advanced, and with American help Poles won't have trouble to piece together what exactly happened.
I think we should look at the event holding this thought — that in a day, or two, or maybe a week NATO will know precisely what happened — whether it was a Russian missile, or a Ukrainian AA missile, or maybe both (e.g. if Ukrainian missile intercepted a Russian missile, and they both fell on those poor farmers). And I think Russian, Polish, Ukrainian and American authorities understand this. Kuleba already said that it wasn't a Ukrainian missile
https://twitter.com/DmytroKuleba/status/1592633235754057728?cxt=HHwWgIDQqazflZosAAAA
if he lied, or even was misinformed, Ukrainian credibility will take a hit. At the same time, Russians are no strangers to lying (think of their behavior during MH17 events), so they'll say "it wasn't us" either way.
EDIT: Remember the Ukrainian airplane that Iran shot down (what an irony)?
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ukraine_International_Airlines_Flight_752
Americans leaked that it was Iranian AA the next day, on Jan 9th. And they were monitoring Iranian airspace in the aftermath of Soleimani just as they monitor Ukrainian airspace now.
StopSpreadingBullshit
2yr ago
Sure, I'll post about my experiences, and thank you.
StopSpreadingBullshit
2yr ago
risk that people's mental images are auto-completed to robot skeletons with guns
Maybe a lot of our criticism of those scenarios of humanoid robots wielding handguns come from our contrarianism and the desire of futurists/"serious" writers of speculative fiction to be original and insightful? Just like any would-be xenobiologist who mentions carbon chauvinism (despite boron and silicon being much inferior elements to construct complex molecules from).
I thought recently of Detroit Become Human — it is highly unoriginal and derivative when it comes to its predictions about future of technologies. But now with uncovering of Tesla bot, GPT-3, work of OpenAI on dexterous hand manipulation and such, we as well might be surrounded by millions androids who could pass as humans in a decade or two.
And who knows, maybe the spark of runaway AGI will come from these human-like robots, not some supercomputer locked in some research institute.
West of Ukraine
Now how dare you.
/images/16670317188400383.webp
It's certainly not that people disagree with you, they are just bots. And that is certainly suspicious that they are not very interested in discussion of transsexuals when their city is bombed.
Bots participating here might be a thing, but people with your rhetoric certainly lower quality of discussion here. lesswrong and slatestarcodex were heterodox — but they were correct about things. About cryptocurrencies, Artificial Intelligence, COVID. Now, when it comes to geopolitics, freaking worldnews has better takes than the New Right that populates rat-adjacent forums including this one (you might say that I am biased — but compare predictions made there and by people like Karlin).
And yes, I am sure that kulaksrevolt didn't create this post just because article on AA he reposted was subpar, and some people noted it. Oh no, it was because of bots. Possibly from the West of Ukraine.
StopSpreadingBullshit
2yr ago
I think it is understandable that people who lost their children are incredibly vindictive. The perpetrator is dead (and he wasn't even punished as he shot himself — so he died his own, most likely pre-planned way), so the next target of the revenge is Alex Jones. We talk here about "decoupling", but it's easy to do "decoupling" for those who didn't suffer through the horrible loss ("Didn't these parents read Milton? They are such morons!"). Also, why did you put the word "victims" in quotes? Jones doubling down doesn't help him: "The verdict, he said, was an attempt to 'scare us away from questioning Uvalde and what really happened there, or Parkland or any other event'". This behavior doesn't invite compassion.
Position of the judges or journalists on the subject is something else entirely (as they should have higher ability to "decouple"), but I wanted to address the apparent lack of empathy in your post.
Dude, Flight Radar and smartphones with digital cameras exist, if high profile people move around, it is usually noticed.
Now prove that he is in Israel or Cyprus, and not in Vanuatu.
StopSpreadingBullshit
2yr ago
He is either in Israel of Cyprus but Israel is the most likely location.
https://youtube.com/watch?v=tNuRUY0Pxew
Here he is, visiting an Anti-Corruption Agency in Kyiv for questioning several days ago. So you just don't know basic facts.
Btw, just out of curiosity, how did you find themotte? I noticed that you’re not a native English speaker and only post about Ukraine when it comes up.
I read Scott back when he was posting on lesswrong, so I might ask you the same question. Did you come here from /r/conservative, /r/conspiracy or some other subreddit filled with low information people? Because it certainly looks like that.
post about Ukraine when it comes up.
I just posted here 3 times, I think. Yes, I am not really interested in discussing some outrage du jour about transsexuals or whatever constantly preoccupies your mind. Just called out ignorant comments several times (were those yours as well?)
StopSpreadingBullshit
2yr ago
You believe heroes can have offshore banking accounts paid for by corrupt oligarchs now hiding in Israel
btw, you betrayed your ignorance on the subject by not knowing that Kolomoisky is not in Israel right now, and he wasn't there for the last 2 years. As well by the fact there is a case opened against him in Ukraine, so he stays there. Before talking about things, you better educate yourself.
But it's naive to think that the CIA wasn't involved early
If they were involved (I cannot disprove it of course, just as I cannot prove or disprove that Kennedy was assassinated by CIA), it was for certain not at the earliest stages. Even on Wikipedia you can read that it started with some protests by students and activists, organized by a journalist Mustafa Nayem. It evolved into mass protests only after Yanukovich made an unforced error on Nov 30 and brutally suppressed by that time low number of protesters — Russia-style:
https://youtube.com/watch?v=6HtbdFfaYUc
Did CIA forced Berkut (riot police) to hit people's heads with police batons?
After seeing that, people got berserk and rioted. Maybe only after that State Department (that we know for sure) and intelligence services (possibly) got involved, but even without them hundreds of thousands people went protesting.
By 2013 situation in Ukraine was already explosive — even Russians, who supposedly know more about Ukraine than some Americans who listen to Oliver Stone, probably don't know the extension of government corruption at the time, Azarov's (PM of Yanukovich) mismanagement of the economy, or e.g. Vradiivka riots (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Rape_of_Iryna_Krashkova — abuse by police was not something new, and people already demanded police reform; but Yanokuvich led Ukraine to Belarus-style autocracy). You have to live there to understand what happens there. Maybe that's why they thought they'll be met with flowers.
StopSpreadingBullshit
2yr ago
It was described incorrectly then, and you should read on that more
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_equipment_of_the_Armed_Forces_of_Ukraine#Air_defense_systems
Ukraine operates mostly old Soviet equipment for counteracting cruise missiles (Like "Buk"), and no American instructor will pull the trigger for a Stinger or some other Western MANPAD. NASAMS are not yet deployed AFAIK.
Probably though, Americans warn Ukraine when submarines with Kalibrs launch their rockets though. But Russia switched to Iranian drones for strategic strikes in the last week.
StopSpreadingBullshit
2yr ago
They've threatened 15 year jail sentences for those who did vote in the most recent Russian referenda.
It is just untrue. Only organizing said referenda (as well as participation in any "counting commissions" etc.) falls under "treason" charges. One can participate in them, because no one would be able to prove that it was willingly, and not under duress. The same goes for "receiving humanitarian aid" from Russians — Russians spread this rumor to enforce compliance: "aha, you got some canned fish from us, now when Ukrainian authorities will learn of that, you'll get imprisoned, now you better obey us".
I am a Ukrainian, and usually just lurk, but I see so. Much. Bullshit. Spread. Around. From both sympathetic to Ukrainians people admittedly, but much more so from all those American internet contrarians. Starting with silly ("Zelensky prohibited letter Z! What a moron! Doesn't he know he has Z in his surname" — on /pcm it had probably 5k updoods, and many people uncritically assumed it's true); but also the standard tropes like "Maidan was a CIA plot!", "Zelensky prohibited all socialist parties!" and so on. Of course, all those people have never been to Ukraine, have no idea how Ukrainian politics is organized, don't read Ukrainian media, and don't know how people on the ground really feel.
But they watched maybe a couple videos on the subject including "Ukraine on Fire", read Karlin, and some others just as uninformed people as themselves on reddit and here, and now they think they are qualified to comment on the subject. Maybe those internet commentators should learn some humility? I don't comment on e.g. Finnish politics, and me knowing that people like "Sanna Marin", or "True Finns" exist, doesn't make me an expert, I just read Stefferi, and quietly updood.
Sorry for the rant.
It's the simplest and most logical explanation. Russians launched almost 100 missiles at power plants and substations across the country, why would Ukrainian purposefully sabotage it? Also it's unlikely that Russians targeted one power plant, but an AA missile fell on another.
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