Soriek
11mo ago
Yemen and the Red Sea
The Houthis have kept up their fight against Israel and managed to actually inconvenience everyone. Consistent attacks in the Red Sea have made merchant ships cautious about the shipping route, and have even encouraged vessels to take vastly longer routes all the way around the African coast. The costs for everything being shipped have, unfortunately, risen accordingly for consumers:
Keuhne+Nagel, a global logistics giant, said Wednesday that 103 container ships have diverted around Africa, a figure it expects to increase. Some oil tanker owners have also insisted on options in their charters to avoid the southern Red Sea, while BP Plc and Equinor ASA have also shied away from the area.
The combined market capitalization of the firms within the Solactive Global Shipping Index rose to almost $190 billion on Wednesday. On Dec. 12 it stood at $166.2 billion.
It isn’t entirely obvious that this is really going to boost profits for shipping companies however:
For shipping owners, the development both gives and takes away: Clients will be forced to pay up for higher rates, but shippers will also have to absorb higher fuel costs. Tanker and liquid petroleum gas shippers look best placed since capacity utilization is tight and trouble at another major canal—the one in Panama—has already given them a huge boost in bargaining power.
Brent oil prices rose around 1% on Tuesday, according to Refinitiv data. Shares of A.P. Moller-Maersk, a top global container shipper, were down over 3%. Shares of Dorian LPG, a major LPG shipper, were up nearly 2%.
The United States has of course taken this very seriously and vowed to protect any ships that need to move through the Suez canal, and have quickly assembled a multinational force to try to combat the situation:
On Monday, the Pentagon said it was establishing a security operation to protect seaborne traffic from ballistic missiles and drone attacks launched by the Houthi groups in Yemen. The effort, called Operation Prosperity Guardian, will include the U.K., Bahrain, France, Norway and other countries.
US warships have already been sent in, but so far it doesn’t seem to have arrested the trend of merchant vessels diverting their routes, so maybe it isn’t enough security for them. On the other hand, energy markets have not responded drastically, largely due to existing surpluses muting the urgency of the situation somewhat:
Oil and refined-product flows have more than halved from September levels, according to commodities-data firm Kpler. LNG traders and shipbrokers said Wednesday that more tankers carrying the supercooled fuel were diverting to avoid the Red Sea…
But thus far the response of energy markets to the disruption has been muted compared with dramatic moves in prices sparked by some other past outbreaks of violence in the Middle East.
Benchmark Brent crude futures edged up 1.3%, surpassing $80 a barrel for the first time since late November and extending gains over the past week to 8%. Natural-gas futures rose 1.9% in the U.S. to $2.54 per million British thermal units, and 3.8% in northwest Europe to 33.80 euros a megawatt-hour…
One reason for the muted response to the dramatic situation, say traders and analysts, is that crude and gas markets happen to be swimming in surplus supplies, dulling the effect of longer journey times. The U.S., Guyana and Brazil are all pumping record volumes of oil, the International Energy Agency said this month, while Iranian exports of crude have surged this year.
And although more than 8% of the world’s oil supplies have shuttled through the Red Sea on average so far this year, the stretch of water is less of a chokepoint than the Strait of Hormuz to the east. The attacks have clustered around Bab el-Mandeb, at the southern end of the Red Sea.
Egypt & Ethiopia
I’ve covered previously here the ongoing negotiations between Ethiopia and Egypt over the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD) on the Nile. If it kicks into action it will provide electricity for all of Ethiopia and even allow them to become a net energy exporter. However, Egypt sees it as an existential threat to their already precarious water access (the Nile actually runs south to north, I believe the only major river to do so [edit: not actually so]). Sudan has vacillated between both sides over the years and is currently too burdened with the war to prioritize these negotiations.
Unfortunately, they have now had the final in a series of talks that have stretched over four months, and the two sides have reached no deal (realistically, what middle ground does lie between their positions?) The dam is already producing energy and Ethiopia has said they are going to continue to ramp up energy use with or without Egypt on board. Egypt has said in the past they are willing to take extreme action if this happens, though it’s unclear what is exactly in their power to do. Sudan has previously said that it will not allow Egyptians to move troops overland in Sudan or to fly planes through Sudanese air space to attack Egypt. In fairness Sudan has limited ability to enforce anything at the moment but Egypt is probably not crazy enough to functionally invade their next door neighbor (and essentially ally on this particular issue). It’s unclear as well what the US will do, being allies with both countries and heavily invested in regional stability but also tied up with multiple other conflicts.
Soriek
11mo ago
Serbia
I previously covered the Serbian Progressive Party being forced to call snap elections after popular discontent with two mass shootings. SNP undertook a mass gun buyback in response to the shooting in hopes of shoring up support, and either it worked really well, or the election was shady, or what. Either way, they did fine. They hasn’t restored their pre-2022 supermajority, and their coalition partner the socialist party lost half their seats, but the SNS still handily breezed by the opposition parties (they even won in Belgrade), leaving Aleksander Vucic safely maintaining his decade plus hold on the country (currently he is in the technically symbolic Presidential role rather than Prime Minister, but in reality he is still the leader of the party):
[Vucic’s] Serbian Progressive Party, or SNS, won 47% of the vote, according to a near-final count.
Opposition parties under the Serbia Against Violence (SPN) banner were well behind with around 23%.
But they claimed electoral fraud favouring the government, and called a protest for Monday evening.
If confirmed, the results will likely mean the SNS has won more than half of the 250 seats in the National Assembly…
In a statement, SPN claimed electoral fraud. The coalition said: "More than 40,000 non-residents were brought to Belgrade"... The International Election Observation Mission said in a statement that "serious irregularities, including vote-buying and ballot box stuffing were observed"...
Local observers reported various irregularities on Sunday, including voters being bussed in from Bosnia-Herzegovina to vote in Belgrade.
The CRTA observer mission gave details of attempted ballot-rigging in a number of polling stations.
Significant protests happened on Monday, and the international response has been skeptical:
Stefan Schennach, a member of the Austrian Parliament and the head of the Council of Europe’s election observers, addressed the cameras. Not mincing his words, he said it had not been a fair election: “The victory in Belgrade was stolen from the opposition.” A report by observers from the Organization for Security and Co-operation in Europe (OSCE) followed, spelling out several irregularities.
The next strike to Vucic’s hopes came from across the Atlantic. On Tuesday, United States Department of State spokesman Matthew Miller asked Serbia to investigate the irregularities, urging it to “work with the OSCE to address these concerns that have been raised”.
Meanwhile, the only international leaders to congratulate Vucic on his party’s victory were fellow strongmen: Hungary’s Viktor Orban and Azerbaijan’s Ilhan Aliyev. Even the Serbian president’s nominal allies whom he often proudly claims as personal friends, Russia’s Vladimir Putin and China’s Xi Jinping, had lower-ranking officials send the congratulations.
The big question now is what will happen with Kosovo. Tensions have been high, but Serbia does want to join the European Union, and the EU sure isn’t going to be thrilled with a dodgy election keeping a quasi-autocrat in power; there will be a lot of pressure to continue the halting normalization process with Kosovo.
Soriek
11mo ago
Japan
The funding scandal contains to rage on. Prime Minister Kishida has fired four top ministers, all from the Shinzo Abe faction of the Liberal Democratic Party, including:
Chief Cabinet Secretary Hirokazu Matsuno; Economy and Industry Minister Yasutoshi Nishimura; Agriculture Minister Ichiro Miyashita; and Internal Affairs Minister Junji Suzuki. All have emerged as the alleged recipients of suspected kickbacks of unreported fundraising proceeds. But of course it’s not over. Prosecutors have now raided LDP party offices:
Investigators from the Tokyo District Public Prosecutors’ Office searched the offices of two LPD factions associated with former Prime Minister Shinzo Abe and former secretary-general Toshihiro Nikai, local media reported on Tuesday.
Prosecutors are investigating allegations that party officials failed to declare a combined 600 million yen ($4.18m) in fundraising proceeds, directing money to faction-run slush funds…
Kishida’s cabinet reshuffle, however, has done little to boost his flagging approval.
In an opinion poll published by the Mainichi newspaper on Sunday, 79 of respondents said they disapproved of the government – the highest figure since the poll began in 1947.
In other major Japan news, you’ve probably heard that US Steel, once the largest corporation in the world, is now being purchased by Nippon Steel for $55 a share. This may be less of a major deal than it sounds due to US Steel’s diminished status these days, though it certainly feels like it matters for symbolic reasons.
That $14.1 billion sale price, while a 40% premium from where US Steel’s stock closed Friday before the deal was announced, makes it a minor leaguer in today’s economy. The nation’s tech powerhouses - Apple, Google’s parent Alphabet, Amazon, Microsoft and Nvidia - trade at a valuation of more than $1 trillion each. US Steel, even at the sale price, is valued less than 0.5% of the value of Apple, and less than 2% of the value of Tesla.
Its revenue last year of $21 billion is roughly what Walmart brings in every two weeks. Or to put it another way, it’s just over half of the annual sales that Apple receives just from its wearable products, primarily its headphones.
Soriek
11mo ago
France
Macron has wiggled his way through yet another thorny legislative boondoggle with significant pushback. This time it’s an immigration bill that his own (left wing) Prime Minister, admitted was at least partially unconstitutional. A quick overview:
The controversial new rules – including migration quotas, making it harder for immigrants' children to become French citizens, and delaying migrants' access to welfare benefits – were added to the bill to win the support of right-wing lawmakers for its passage.
The bill makes it easier to expel illegal migrants, while watering down plans to loosen curbs over residency permits for workers in labour-deprived sectors.
Specifically, some of the bill’s measures that restricted welfare access to immigrants seemed to have been taken from or inspired by Macron’s historic opposition party, Le Pen’s National Rally:
A key part of the bill would now see social security benefits for foreigners conditional on being in France for at least five years, or 30 months for those who have jobs, echoing some of the National Rally’s longtime campaign lines.
The bill passed with a dominant majority…with the support of National Rally, while a quarter of his coalition voted against it. The optics aren’t great and Macron is ironically being accused by both by the left and the right of capitulating to the French right. Macron’s Health Minister Aurélien Rousseau has already resigned in protest, and he may not be the last.
the government now faces a shattered coalition in parliament. The debates and compromises have left Macron’s allies badly bruised, with 27 MPs belonging to his centrist coalition voting against the latest version of the legislation…
Speculation is swelling that he might soon undertake a reshuffle including a change of prime minister to re-energize his government.
Separately, France and Germany claim to have a deal in sight to salvage negotiations over the European Union’s new spending rules:
The so-called Stability and Growth Pact (SGP) was put on hold at the start of the COVID-19 pandemic to allow governments to increase spending in the wake of the worst recession since World War II. As it gets reintroduced, the European Commission proposed a reform because of concerns that the rules were too inflexible and unenforceable.
The overhaul is designed to offer more gradual and tailored spending cuts for countries exceeding the EU’s threshold of 3 percent deficit-to-GDP and 60 percent debt-to-GDP. That’s pleased countries such as Italy and France that have run up big debts and are struggling to gain control of their annual deficits ― the difference between how much governments spend and bring in ― but dismayed stricter capitals like Berlin who wanted tougher and more uniform targets.
Under the compromise highly indebted countries would have to keep their annual deficits at about 1.5 percent of GDP and reduce debt by at least 1 percent of their GDP every year….
Paris and Rome were particularly concerned about Germany's insistence on tougher targets because they are two of nine governments whose deficits are above the 3 percent limit. The Commission is expected to slap these countries with its sanctions mechanism ― known as the excessive deficit procedure (EDP) ― in spring 2024.
Soriek
11mo ago
Chile
Chile held their referendum on a new constitution prepared by the conservatives and rejected it by 56%. The comes two years after the country agreed they wanted to replace their dictator-era constitution, and a little more than a year after they rejected a constitution prepared by left wingers. At this point no one is happy with what they have, but they don’t see eye-to-eye enough to agree on something new.
Polls show Chileans are more concerned about security and a struggling economy rather than drafting a new constitution. Sunday's vote was also seen as a bellwether for the country's right-wing ahead of the 2025 election, but now texts from both political aisles have been widely rejected, leaving the outcome of the race uncertain.
The first proposed text was drafted by leftist legislators and focused on social, gender, Indigenous and environmental rights while the second reinforced the country's free-market policies and emphasized property and religious rights, while potentially restricting access to abortion.
The second rewrite was dominated by the right-wing Republican party, led by Jose Antonio Kast, who lost against leftist President Gabriel Boric during the last election.
President Boric has said they will not try again, and maybe it really is for the best to leave this chapter behind. He has now said he will focus on taxes and pension reforms.
Soriek
11mo ago
Democratic Republic of Congo
The Congolese election has kicked off between incumbent President Felix Tshisekedi and like two dozen other dudes, though the most likely opposition candidate is the ex-Governor of the mineral rich Katanga province. Tshisekedi’s own ascension in 2019 was the DRC’s first peaceful transition of power so their democratic process is of course still fragile. Already things look pretty sketchy, whether due malfeasance or just the general chaos of the country:
Some 44 million people — almost half the population — were expected to vote, but many, including several million displaced by conflict in the vast country’s east, could struggle to cast ballots. The fighting prevented 1.5 million people from registering to vote…
A major concern is that ink on cards has smudged. That means voters could be turned away. In addition, the voter registration list hasn’t been properly audited.
Three hours after polls opened, over 31% of polling stations in main cities and towns were yet to open, with voting machines faulty in 45% of stations, according to Bishop Donatien Nshole, spokesman of the National Episcopal Conference of Congo and the Church of Christ in Congo observer mission, basing the figures on reports of around a fifth of its large network.
One polling station in the capital received voting devices less than two hours before polls were meant to close. Thousands of stations, particularly in remote areas, still might not have needed materials.
Results are predicted to take about a week to come out, so hopefully I should have them for you in the next Transnational Thursday. Most likely Tshisekedi will remain in power.
Soriek
11mo ago
Guatemala
A follow up to last week’s post about the top prosecutor in Guatemala, ordered by the Attorney General, declaring Bernardo Arévalo election victory invalid. Guatemala’s Constitutional Court has rejected the order and urged Congress to secure Arévalo’s inauguration (only about three weeks away now).
The attorney general’s office, resorting to a whole series of court cases, is trying to delegitimize the results of the Guatemalan runoff on August 20, when the progressive Arévalo won the elections with 58% of the vote. The victory of the Semilla Movement delivered a forceful citizen message against the corruption and impunity that prevails in Guatemala, specifically against the so-called “pact of the corrupt,” made up of a group of politicians, members of the military, businesspeople and individuals linked to drug trafficking who have co-opted most of the state institutions since 2019, when they managed to kick out the International Commission Against Impunity in Guatemala (CICIG), a United Nations body that dismantled more than 200 corrupt structures.
Soriek
11mo ago
Armenia and Azerbaijan
Diplomatic normalization between the two fractious countries seems to be continuing, with both Armenia and Azerbaijan agreeing to their first ever prisoner exchange. They are also discussing withdrawing their respective troops from the border and are continuing to hold peace talks.
Soriek
11mo ago
Iran’s relationship with the situation is super tricky. Historically they were allied with Armenia while Azerbaijan bought weapons from Israel. But potentially as much as a quarter of Iran is ethnically Azeri, with a ton of them living right next to the border. A lot of them are really well integrated (people say the Ayatollah may be half Azeri) but there’s also been an issue of growing Azeri nationalism within Iran.
The last President Rouhani made it a major initiative to try to douse those fires, campaigned in Azeri towns a lot, allowed their language to be taught in schools, and reestablished diplomatic relations with Azerbaijan to keep them from fanning the flames of Turkish pan nationalism right over the border. He even switched Iran’s position and formally recognized Nagorno-Karabakh as part of Azerbaijan.
Iran has a huge vested interest in stability in the region. They still have their historic ties with Armenia and they really don’t want the Zangezur Corridor to be built and unite Azerbaijan and Turkey and cut them off from Armenia. This is all the more pressing because that could jeopardize their access to the north-south transit corridor through the caucuses that they’ve heavily invested in (the highway section in Armenia is being built by Iranian companies). At the same time, Iran is super not happy about Armenia’s deepening ties with the US or the presence of US troops in the area or American influence over the outcome.
So Iran has said “they won’t tolerate any border changes”. But all the same constraints that forced them to make nice with Azerbaijan are still at play, so it’s hard to say exactly how free they have to intervene. With the conflict in Israel keeping up their focus and repeated clashes between their proxies in Iraq and the US, I also imagine they really don’t want another conflict to potentially get wrapped up in.
Soriek
11mo ago
I honestly don't remember the Admin mentioning it at the time at all (and every American I bring this up to is surprised) but I could well be wrong, and also agree the reason it wasn't hammered on is because it was embarassing compared to what Americans were promised.
Soriek
11mo ago
Nukes were definitely the much bigger concern; I bring up the chemical weapons stock discovery directly in response to the question in the OP of why we didn't discover any (we did, we just kept it under wraps).
I do think "we found 5000 chemical warheads" is more than enough for the politician who declared Victory six weeks into an eight-year war to also announce there were a whole bunch of WMDs just like we said there would be - but agreed it's nowhere near what we were promised.
FWIW we did find a ton of chemical weapons, if not nukes:
In all, American troops secretly reported finding roughly 5,000 chemical warheads, shells or aviation bombs, according to interviews with dozens of participants, Iraqi and American officials, and heavily redacted intelligence documents obtained under the Freedom of Information Act.
Not that this was a surprise. Part of why our intelligence said Iraq had chemical weapons was because we knew they did, since we had exported them a bunch of chem precursors, missile fab equipment, and instructions on how to use them during the Iraq-Iran War. Why didn't we make more noise about it after the invasion, I'm not sure. Maybe it just looked bad on us, no nukes and a bunch of American soldiers injured from weapons that practically had Made in America stickers on them.
Soriek
11mo ago
Same here, I significantly underestimated how much direct power the President has for reforms without asking permission from the leg branch. At the same time, the reforms don't seem that drastically different compared to Macri's last term, which may be intentional to gain JxC support for legislative initiatives.
For third party onlookers, here's a small recap of specifics:
He announced a devaluation of the peso by over 50% (see chart), and promised to slash electricity and transport subsidies, halve the number of government ministries from 18 to nine, suspend public works and reduce federal transfers to Argentina’s 23 provinces. The government reckons these cuts amount to almost 3% of gdp.
Alongside this, however, the administration will increase taxes on imported goods from 7.5% to 17.5%, and extend a tax of 15% on all exports (an existing tax of 30% on soyabean exports will be maintained). Child benefits will double, as will the value of a government food card for the country’s poorest. The idea is to cut spending while temporarily increasing taxes to raise revenue, in order to lower the annual deficit from over 5% of gdp today to zero by the end of 2024. “We have come to solve the addiction to fiscal deficits,” said Mr Caputo, noting that Argentina has been in the red for 113 of the past 123 years. The imf, which is owed $43bn by Argentina, applauded the “bold initial actions” and promised to work “expeditiously” with the new government in the coming months. In a statement the fund admitted that the deal it signed in March 2022 with Argentina’s government to restructure its loan had suffered “serious policy setbacks”.
Soriek
11mo ago
It's Donald Tusk's Civic Coalition, the centrist Third Way, and center left/left wing (appropriately named) The Left. All of them in turn are alliances of smaller parties but have been behaving as united fronts.
Soriek
11mo ago
You have any impression on the ground how things will shake out from all this?
Soriek
11mo ago
Do you have any general predictions for the coming months / years under the new government?
Soriek
11mo ago
I also couldn't find anything on the results so I figured they weren't out yet, but wikipedia has a page saying ZANU-PF won 7 of the 9 by elections. All of their references are from before the election so I'm not sure where the numbers come from. From what I've read they were 10 seats short so they couldn't really win the supermajority on this move alone either way, but they've already been talking about stripping potentially another members of their seats.
on the ground there are improvements and I thought things were looking upward last time I was there early this year. Yes, the recall incident is pathetic, but Ncube is undoubtedly one of the smartest African officials I’ve ever met or even heard speak, and he knows where the risks and opportunities are.
You have any insight either to the current state of the country, or Ncube personally?
Soriek
11mo ago
Tbf 76 wasn't handled by our current laws because those laws were designed in response to 76. From Goodyear's "President Garfield":
In 1887 President Glover Cleveland would sign the Electoral Count Act into law, expressly to ensure the fiasco of a decade prior could never repeat. Hereafter Congress would have to be in session at one o'clock on the afternoon of January 6 following every Presidential election to formalize the results; representatives and senators would have limited authority to challenge certificates submitted by the states; the Vice President would serve as presiding officer but, likewise, not have the power to invalidate election returns.
The Compromise of 77 narrative is also somewhat contrived. Grant had already decided it was time to withdraw troops from the South and Hayes agreed that he would follow him in this policy; they made their decision well in advance of the general election (Garfield approved as well). Likewise, the Democrats at the Wormely meeting who offered to end the Democratic fillibuster were rebuffed because they had no power over their party to actually make this happen, and indeed the fillibuster continued after the meeting, suggesting no deal was made. It wasn't really a meaningful offer anyway - the vote count had already begun and the results were certain, the only issue was how long it would take the fillibuster to end.
Japan
Japan’s longtime dominant Liberal Democratic Party has been caught in a scandal where politicians were receiving kickbacks from fundraisers. Some of this was already known and the party responded by updating their previously unreported funds, but recently it was revealed that Shinzo Abe’s faction1 has been doing this for years. The size of this scandal is apparently enormous; the LDP’s popularity is at a staggering 17%, remarkable considering they have basically run the country with few interruptions since World War 2.
Prime Minister Kishida is apparently considering replacing “all” of the Abe faction who currently enjoy ministerial posts. This would include “Matsuno, the top government spokesman [Chief Cabinet Secretary], and Nishimura [he Minister of Economy, Trade and Industry,]...two other ministers, five senior vice ministers and six parliamentary vice ministers from Abe's faction…Tsuyoshi Takagi, who is currently the LDP's chief of Diet affairs…LDP policy chief Koichi Hagiuda and Hiroshige Seko, secretary general of the party in the House of Councillors”
It sounds like a lot, but it might not be enough - quite a few people have called for Kishida himself to step down (for his responsibility as the Executive; Kishida is not in the Abe faction). Formally he doesn’t have to call an election till 2025 but he could be voted out by his own party if the public mood is bad enough. Japan is notorious for sacking PMs at the drop of the hat (I think only Italy has them beat for most leaders since WW2) but Kishida has proven prickly and survived several scandals that would have ousted other PMs.
1The LDP is made up of five (arguably six) different “factions,” or cliques, that are somewhat tied together on policy and somewhat by the personality and influence of the leaders of those cliques. During the Abe era his own faction was a mix of nationalists and people who thought (often correctly) they could ride his coattails to influence. Kishida’s is the same for the more liberal/pacifist wing of the party.
Soriek
11mo ago
Poland
A follow up to the TT from two weeks ago on PiS PM Morawiecki being allowed to form a government as the top vote getting party. He has now (to nobody’s surprise) failed a vote of no confidence by 266 to 190, bringing an end to Pis’ long dominance.
With the formalities out of the way, this paves the way for Donald Tusk to be sworn into power, with 248 votes in favor vs 201 opposed in his first vote.
Besides rebuilding bridges with Brussels, Tusk’s campaign pledges included promising to allow abortion – subject to a near-total ban under PiS – until 12 weeks, declaring termination, IVF and contraception fundamental rights, and allowing civil partnerships for same-sex couples…
Brussels has withheld billions of euros in Covid-19 recovery funds in an increasingly bitter row over Poland’s rule of law, and has required reform on issues such as judicial independence and green energy.
Tusk has now officially been sworn into office with his cabinet:
Tusk’s Cabinet includes a former foreign minister, Radek Sikorski, taking up that role again. Adam Bodnar, a respected human rights lawyer and former ombudsman, was tapped as justice minister, tasked with reversing the previous administration’s actions that gave it more control of the judiciary.
Tusk named Wladyslaw Kosiniak-Kamysz, an experienced politician and agrarian party leader, as his defense minister. For Kosiniak-Kamysz, 42, Poland’s security is safeguarded by its membership in NATO and the EU. In the face of war across Poland’s border, he has vowed to focus on strengthening the defense potential of the armed forces.
The new culture minister is Bartlomiej Sienkiewicz, a former interior minister under Tusk and the great grandson of “Quo Vadis” author Henryk Sienkiewicz, a winner of the Nobel Prize for literature. His first task will be to free state media from political control that the previous government exerted.
Also
The confidence vote was delayed when a far-right lawmaker, Grzegorz Braun, used a fire extinguisher to put out the candles of a menorah during a Hanukkah celebration dedicated to Poland’s Jewish lawmakers of the 1920s and 1930s.
what?
Soriek
11mo ago
Azerbaijan & Armenia
In the time since Azerbaijan fully reconquered Nagorno-Karabakh, there have been worries that they would proceed to invade Armenia proper as well. Those worries did not seem to materialize at first, and the two countries even began peace negotiations. However, Azerbaijan has now reiterated an earlier claim to 8 Armenian villages which it considers “under occupation.”
At the same time Baku announced that Azerbaijani forces will conduct military drill is occupied Stepanakert on Wednesday.
In a statement issued Tuesday, Azerbaijan’s foreign ministry accused Armenia of “once again hindering peace agreement negotiations, continuing military-political provocations, as well as threats from landmines.”...
While official Baku has not specified which eight villages it is referencing [???], Aliyev’s website has listed them as seven villages in Armenia’s Tavush Province and one village in the Ararat Province, that borders Nakhichevan.
Last month, Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan touched on Baku’s claims about the eight villages in Armenia, by reminding Azerbaijan that the Armenian region of Artsvashen, once part of Armenia’s Gegharkunik Province, continued to remain occupied by Azerbaijan since the 1990s.
However, a few days later [the BBC reported that peace negotiations(https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-67655940) are continuing:
In a joint statement released on Thursday night, the two countries said they saw a "historical chance" for "long-awaited peace".
Both countries said they hoped to sign a peace treaty by the end of the year. Hopefully cooler heads prevail.
Soriek
11mo ago
Iraq, Iran, and America
Another follow up to a previous post on tensions between the US and Iranian aligned forces ramping up in Iraq. While President Al-Sudani (raised to power by the pro-Iranian parties the Coordinated Network) publicly condemned the attacks against America - and the counterstrikes - they have unfortunately continued and worsened.
Dozens of attacks on U.S. military facilities by Iran-backed factions in Iraq over the past two months as the Israel-Hamas war has raged have forced Baghdad into a balancing act that’s becoming more difficult by the day.
A rocket attack on the sprawling U.S. Embassy in Baghdad on Friday marked a further escalation as Iraqi officials scramble to contain the ripple effects of the latest Middle East war.
Washington has sent messages that its patience is wearing thin.
After the embassy attack, the Pentagon said that Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin “made clear (to al-Sudani) that attacks against U.S. forces must stop.”
U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken told al-Sudani that Washington expects Iraqi officials to take more action to prevent such attacks, and believes they have the capability to do so, a U.S. official told The Associated Press.
During a recent trip to the region, CIA Director William Burns warned al-Sudani of “harsh consequences” if Iraq doesn’t act to stop the attacks, an Iraqi official said.
There are definitely economic differences but maybe less so than in the past; the growing cleavages nowadays are social/political.
For much of the 2000s the Chilean left standard bearer was actually the Socialist Party (the one that was suspended during the right wing dictatorship) and their successive party/coalitions, which have quickly slid into a tiny minority. The current President Gabriel Boric founded his own party, Social Convergence, which does contain elements / prior parties focused on socialist economics but is more about left wing social politics, such as gender equality, indigenous rights, LGBT rights, and environmentalism. During the election commenters were surprised how little he leaned (beyond rhetoric) into actual economically populist policies despite there being a pretty high demand for them (Chile had just come out of big protests over living costs that began with a hike in train fares). He did try nationalize lithium ion but probably knew that was impossible without the constitution being amended. He's also tried (and failed) to advance better labor laws, healthcare, and pension reform, so the economic differences between the parties are there and genuine.
The conservatives (actually called the Republican party) are all in on free market economics, but are also much farther to the right politically than previous conservative opposition. They're pretty much the reverse of all the stuff Boric is into, they make a lot of hay out of opposing immigration, gay marriage, indigenous rights, abortion, yadda yadda. Their leader Antonio Kast, the runner up against Boric, is a pretty open Pinochet apologist.
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