Soriek
10mo ago
Two months after the claim I responded to but thank you for the update on the situation!
Soriek
10mo ago
I haven't read it yet, but this is much the argument of Acemoglu's new book "Power and Progress," that it's perfectly possible for technological innovation to not spill over into benefits for normal people.
The wealth generated by technological improvements in agriculture during the European Middle Ages was captured by the nobility and used to build grand cathedrals, while peasants remained on the edge of starvation. The first hundred years of industrialization in England delivered stagnant incomes for working people. And throughout the world today, digital technologies and artificial intelligence undermine jobs and democracy through excessive automation, massive data collection, and intrusive surveillance.
Before him, the tech history Joel Mokyr argued that the middle ages were more technologically innovative than classical Rome, but of course quality of life was very low.
Soriek
10mo ago
Notably these are the highest tax areas in the United States. My point is redistribution has a pretty questionable impact on innovation and growth.
Soriek
10mo ago
In fairness it’s more than double Guyana’s whole military, but agreed it likely won’t turn into anything real.
Black people of course played an important part in America's success. But leaving that aside, the rest of your post assumes without making an argument that welfare and redistribution has a strong, negative impact on growth and innovation, which is far from clear cut. America has been richer than Europe for a while, but significant divergence is pretty recent and didn't happen at the height of European statism / redistribution, but rather in the past few decades, a period during which many European countries passed (some extent of) liberal reforms and America correspondingly increased its own welfare state and involvement in the economy. Likewise, highly redistributionist countries like the Scandinavian nations still top charts for most innovative in the world, have robust growth, etc.
Iran
A major terrorist attack occurred at General Qasem Soleimanis tomb on the fourth anniversary of his assassination by the US. Over a hundred people have been killed so far. Iranian investigators have claimed the top suspects are suicide bombers, but it remains completely unclear who exactly is responsible. It would be extraordinarily unlikely for the US to be directly implicated, but coming at a time when direct fighting between American soldiers and Iranian militias in Iraq has been ratcheting up (the US just airstruck the PMF headquarters today and killed a top official), it’s not fantastic to also re-open this wound that brought our countries the closest they’ve come to direct conflict.
Update:
ISIS has claimed responsibility for the attack
Soriek
10mo ago
The Red Sea
Things have been unfortunately escalating in the Red Sea with Houthis opening fire on allied ships and western forces sinking Houthi vessels in response. The Operation Prosperity Guardian has issued a statement of willingness to escalate if the Houthis don’t withdraw, which they likely will not.
The United States and 12 allies issued what amounted to a final warning to Houthi rebels on Wednesday to cease their attacks on vessels in the Red Sea or face potential targeted military action.
The Yemen-based militants have carried out at least 23 attacks in response to the Israel-Hamas war in Gaza since Dec. 19…
The statement was signed by the United States, Australia, Bahrain, Belgium, Canada, Denmark, Germany, Italy, Japan, Netherlands, New Zealand, Singapore and the United Kingdom. Separately, the U.S. called on the United Nations Security Council on Wednesday to take action against the Houthis and warned their financier Iran that it has a choice to make about continuing to provide support to the rebels.
With conflicts between American soldiers and Iranian militias in Iraq, everyone is of course worried about being drawn into a regional war. Whatever action is chosen here, that remains a possibility.
“As the President has made clear, the United States does not seek conflict with any nation or actor in the Middle East, nor do we want to see the war between Israel and Hamas widen in the region,” White House National Security Council spokesman John Kirby said. “But neither will we shrink from the task of defending ourselves, our interests, our partners, or the free flow of international commerce.”
The official said any potential action against the Houthis will be done in a “very smart way that does not potentially draw us in deep to a situation” with Iran and its proxy groups.
Korea
A few days ago there was an assassination attempt against the leader of the Korean opposition, the Democratic Party (which included the previous president Moon Jae-In). The current leader and 2022 Presidential candidate, Lee Jae-myung, was apparently stabbed in the neck on a trip to Busan, Korea’s second largest city. Fortunately he has survived. There is no information about motives or the background of the assassin yet.
Also, the Korean Supreme Court has ruled yet again to re-open the issue of reparations owed by Japan. I did a little writeup on the history here, but basically Japan paid reparations to the country, which they gave to the dictator Park Chung Hee who supposedly mostly spent in on industrial policy. But the courts later ruled that individuals should have the right to sue, which re-opened a seemingly settled matter of compensation. Only one person is even still alive from the original individual lawsuits that started this.
For now, both the Japanese and Korean governments seem to be ignoring it and hoping it’ll go away. Both Kishida and Yoon have extremely low popularity and patching up relations with each other is one of the only big successes they both have, so I’d imagine they don’t want to jeopardize relations.
Ethiopia & Somalia
Most people here likely know, but Somalia is a divided country. The northern, formerly British administered section is a breakaway state that has been functionally independent since the Somali Democratic Republic collapsed in 91. Nobody recognizes Somaliland, and Somalia proper claims the whole territory, but really only governs the fractious and unstable southern part, formerly administered by the Italians. Somaliland is much more functional and has no interest in reuniting with its anarchic former partner, but any country making direct diplomatic or trade deals with Somaliland is highly controversial, especially in Africa where many other nation states also have secessionist groups or provinces.
So imagine the outrage now that Ethiopia has signed a memorandum of understanding recognizing Somaliland and giving them a stake in an Ethiopia airline if the latter country grants them use of one of the Somali ports and military bases. Obviously this is a little dicey for Ethiopia considering they are always dealing with secessionist groups, including with ethnic Somalis in their eastern Ogaden region. However, the deal fulfills their longstanding goal of regaining their landlocked country a path to the ocean, lost after the secession of Eritrea. Abiy has been talking about the whole path to the ocean thing for a while and his neighbors interpreted it as him signaling willingness to invade them to gain that path, so honestly this is probably the best possible outcome.
However, Somalia is of course furious about it and has categorically rejected the deal (isn’t there somebody you forgot to ask?) Ethiopia has not exactly been building good will with its neighbors lately, recently failing to establish a deal on water use over their GERD dam with Egypt and Sudan, so it’ll be interesting to see what the coming months bring.
Soriek
10mo ago
Venezuela
Britain has now sent a warship to the Guyanese coast for “routine purposes” and to “conduct training drills,” but realistically to protect them from potential invasion. Venezuela meanwhile has started hosting military drills of over 5000 soldiers, possibly implying that the whole annexing-Guyana thing wasn’t just to get the people going. Brazil has been sweating nervously the whole time, caught nervously between their friendships with both countries.
I maintain that likely no conflict will really erupt. The territory in Guyana right over the Venezuelan border is so rugged and jungle-y that direct invasion is hard, and Brazil isn’t going to let Venezuela move troops through its territory. Still, it’s unfortunate seeing things seemingly escalate.
In other remarkable news País reports that that Maduro himself has been unclear on whether he will run in the upcoming election or pick a different candidate instead. His popularity is sub 20% (why don’t they just fake these numbers?) and overwhelmingly the country wants something different. Oil exports have actually risen significantly, by as much as 12% since sanctions were eased, but the economy is still wrecked and the opposition candidate Machado apparently dominates in polls with a projected 70%+ of the vote. It’s hard to imagine him stepping down voluntarily; we’ll see. Possible alternatives include Maduro’s VP, the head of parliament, and the governors of Carabobo and Miranda states.
Soriek
10mo ago
Argentina
Milei has withdrawn (really just not finalized Argentina’s entry into) the growing BRICS collective. If you think BRICS is a relevant counterweight to western alliances / institutions (I don’t particularly) then this is a win for the latter. Either way, it solidifies Milei in the western camp.
Supposedly the IMF and Argentina are very close to finalizing their review of their $44 billion loan from 2022. If everything is squared away it’ll “unlock” another $3+ billion sent to Argentina. Tightening things up here with the IMF is basically a necessity if Milei wants to qualify for sufficient financing to undergo dollarization.
Speaking of his agenda, the recent turbo-deregulation decree has now been suspended by the National Chamber of Labor Appeals following a challenge by the General Trade Confederation. Separately, Milei is trying to pass a huge omnibus bill through Congress that would achieve much the same goals, apparently in case the decree is held up indefinitely.
Soriek
10mo ago
Actually I think this is a mistake here - 30 km or 18 miles. This is not a random number - that's where the Litani river is - and by UN Security Council Resolution 1701, Hezbollah is not supposed to have any military presence south of Litani.
Ah thanks for the correction.
It is important to note here that the only source for this data is Hamas, these numbers are not verifiable outside Hamas
I think that's why the study went with 'buildings destroyed" rather than casualties, since it's easier to verify externally. Given the rapid rate of bombing relative to Allepo, etc, I think saying less than half that bodycount has been produced doesn't seem like a wildly exaggerated number.
An Israeli military spokesperson earlier this month was saying probably about 5000 militants killed, with twice as many civilians killed for a total of around 15,000. Since the conflict hasn't stopped since then around 20k seems like about what both sides figure.
Argentina
Milei has rapidly kicked into high gear, firing 5000 employees hired last year and signing a massive deregulation package via a “Decree of Necessity and Urgency”. The DNU contains 300 separate reforms on regulations and initiates the privatization of several government ministries, here’s a taste:
Prepare all state-owned companies to be privatized
Authorize the shareholder control of Aerolineas Argentinas to be partly or completely transferred to private parties
Deregulate satellite Internet services to allow SpaceX’s Starlink to operate in Argentina
Eliminate price controls on prepaid healthcare plans
Eliminate the monopoly of tourism agencies to deregulate the sector
Repeal the current Rent Law that limits price increases in a bid to normalize the real estate market
Repeal the current Land Law that limits ownership of land by foreigners in a bid to promote investments
Scrap the current Supply Law that allows the government to set minimum and maximum prices and profit margins for goods and services of private companies
Eliminate the Economy Ministry’s price observatory to “avoid the persecution of companies”
He's also proposed some other interesting, less libertarian ideas, like a cap and trade system, and has left the welfare system much less touched than everything else (he actually doubled payments, though my understanding is this will make them more or less the same following the recent devaluation). There are apparently some questions about whether the massive DNU is even legal, but it’ll only be overturned in both chambers of Congress vote to reject it, though stuff can and will also be challenged in courts. Since Milei’s own party is a small minority, his ability to push any legislation through Congress depends on almost all of the center right Juntos por el Cambio working together with him. Many of them have reservations botyh about him and about this omnibus, so between the legal battles and legislative holdouts it’s far from given that this will become actual policy. The IMF is apparently into it though, so if passed maybe it would raise the chances they’ll give Argentina another loan, probably necessary if they actually want to dollarize.
Milei had promised retaliation against protests that interfered with traffic, but fortunately the protests seem to have happened without major clash between law enforcement and civilians. Now that Milei has unveiled more sweeping measures, unions are discussing nationwide strikes.
Israel and Palestine
The conflicts continues to rage on, with Israel conducting raids both into the West Bank and into refugee camps in Gaza. The flareups on the northern border with Lebanon have worsened as well, with Hezbollah stepping up attacks and Israel having by now evacuated at least 42 settlements worth thousands of people. Israel is now conducting air raids into southerly Lebanese towns and insisting that Hezbollah withdraw thirty miles away from the border.
Major media, or at least the stuff in my diet, feels like it has been increasingly critical of Israel’s role in the conflict. The NYTimes released an investigation claiming that Israel not only routinely attacked the “safe” areas they instructed civilians to cluster inside, but that they used 2000 pound bombs, among the most destructive in their traditional (non-nuclear obviously) arsenal. These bombs were provided by the US, which is continuing to ship them up even now, though apparently they are shifting to sending more small munitions.
Wapo also recently realized a visual review measuring buildings destroyed, demonstrating that the destruction of Gaza has outpaced the bombing campaigns of Aleppo, Mosul, and Raqqa. The death toll from the current conflict is still lower than the other three (20k in Gaza vs 50k in Aleppo out of roughly 2 million people in both areas), but the previous campaigns lasted much longer - at the current rate the death toll from this war could easily exceed the others.
Red Sea
The United States has set up a multinational naval force to protect shipping in the Red Sea, involving thus far “Britain, Bahrain, Canada, France, Italy, the Netherlands, Norway, Seychelles and Spain” (some of these countries are sending ships, others just operational support). Maersk has already said they will resume shipping through the corridor.
The Houthis have responded by saying they will fire on US ships, which seems inadvisable, but I guess we’ve been at proxy war for a while now anyway. The Us and Britain have reported already shooting down over a dozen attack drones. Ironically, Saudi Arabia, the country the Houthis have actually been at war with and who has the most to lose from a Red Sea conflict (36% of their imports), will not be joining the effort (the UAE won’t either), apparently because they are concerned with holding together their fragile peace with Iran. Probably for the best honestly. Of course, even among their rapidly anti-Houthi populace, Saudi Arabia does not want to be seen doing anything like supporting the pro-Israel forces of the war.
Democratic Republic of Congo
An update to last week’s coverage of the election. The election has technically not been called yet but incumbent President Félix Tshisekedi reportedly has an implausible 80%+ of the vote, so the results are pretty much determined.
He was followed by businessman and former governor of Katanga (southeast) Moïse Katumbi (15.18%) and the other opponent Martin Fayulu (1.2%). The twenty or so other candidates in the running, including Nobel Peace Prize winner Denis Mukwege, failed to reach 1%.
Tshisekedi winning a fair election is actually plausible, but probably not dominating like this - the economy is poor and the security situation in the east with the Rwandan-backed M23 rebels has been extremely rough throughout his term. Five of the opposition candidates are leading a protest marching on the capital of Kinshasa. The government rejected their plans and banned the protest, so hopefully things stay peaceful and don’t deteriorate into significant police brutality. I’ve mentioned it before but Tshisekedi’s first victory was the first peaceful, democratic transfer of power in Congolese history so a lot is (was?) riding on this election.
Iraq
Conflicts between American servicemembers and the Iranian-backed militias in Iraq continue to rage on:
The drone strike on a US base in Irbil in Iraq's Kurdistan region injured three US military personnel, one critically, US National Security Council spokesperson Adrienne Watson said.
A militia collective called Islamic Resistance in Iraq, linked to Kataib Hezbollah, said it was behind the that attack.
The Irbil airbase had previously been hit by rocket attacks carried out by Iranian-linked militia. Kataib Hezbollah, which is financed and armed by Iran, has been one of the most prominent groups involved in attacks on US targets in Iraq. It forms part of the Hashd al Shaabi (Popular Mobilisation), an umbrella group of militia which has been integrated into the Iraqi armed forces.
Fortunately after several months of this the conflict remains at a low level, but also appears intractable and does seem to be steadily escalating:
U.S. President Joe Biden ordered the United States military to carry out retaliatory airstrikes against Iranian-backed militia groups after three U.S. service members were injured in a drone attack in northern Iraq.
National Security Council spokesperson Adrienne Watson said one of the U.S. troops suffered critical injuries in the attack that occurred earlier Monday. The Iranian-backed militia Kataib Hezbollah and affiliated groups, under an umbrella of Iranian-backed militants, claimed credit for the attack that utilized a one-way attack drone.
Iraqi officials said that U.S. strikes targeting militia sites early Tuesday killed one militant and wounded 18. They came at a time of heightened fears of a regional spillover of the Israel-Hamas war.
Iran announced Monday that an Israeli strike on the outskirts of the Syrian capital of Damascus killed one of its top generals, Seyed Razi Mousavi, who had been a close companion of Gen. Qassem Soleimani, the former head of Iran’s elite Quds Force. Soleimani was slain in a U.S. drone strike in Iraq in January 2020.
China and the Philippines
I’ve covered the flare ups between the Philippines and China recently, including China using water cannons to repeatedly attack Philipino ships transporting supplies to fisherman in the contested Scarborough Shoal, and placing up borders at the shoal's entrance. The latest update is China doubling down and fully reiterating their commitment to an aggressive posture in the South China Sea vis-a-vis the Philippines. Regrettable news considering the US is treaty bound to defending the Philippines in a conflict, and has recently reiterated their own commitment to this obligation.
In a phone conversation Wednesday with his Philippine counterpart, Enrique A. Manalo, [Chinese Foreign Minister] Wang “warned that if the Philippine side misjudges the situation, goes its own way, or even colludes with ill-intentioned external forces to continue to stir up troubles, China will defend its rights in accordance with law and respond resolutely,” the official Xinhua News Agency reported.
Wang’s comments follow China’s mobilization of its coast guard and maritime militia to block Philippine supply missions to support its soldiers and fishermen. China claims sovereignty over virtually the entire South China Sea, one of the world’s most crucial waterways for shipping, putting it at odds with the Philippines, Vietnam, Malaysia, Taiwan and Brunei, who all maintain claims over islands, reefs and undersea resources in the region.
In particularly sharp comments, Wang was quoted as accusing the Philippines of having “changed its policy stance so far, reneged on the promises it has made, provoked troubles at sea, and undermined China’s legitimate and lawful rights.”
The Philipines has been requesting a multinational naval force that could protect its ships and escort safe passage through the shoal, hopefully including the US, Australia, Japan, and whoever else in on board.
On the plus side for peace, the top US and Chinese military officials are finally speaking again for the first time in over a year (they weren’t able to at the California summit despite Secretary Austin’s willingness because Chinese Defence Minister Li Shangfu had recently been fired).
Soriek
10mo ago
Sudan
The anti-government paramilitary Rapid Support Forces has seized a Wad Madani, a major city in an agricultural province previously considered safe. For perspective, Wad Madani is about 100 miles away from Khartoum where the fighting initially broke out, and was even a destination for many refugees, so the conflict has spread significantly in distance. The city fell in under a week, and its seizure represents a major blow for the ruling government.
The army’s loss has raised questions about the future of its leader, Gen. Abdel Fattah al-Burhan, who is also Sudan’s head of state. It also heightens the risk, analysts said, that neighboring countries could be pulled into the war, and that foreign powers, such as the United Arab Emirates, already accused of fueling the war, will further intervene.
The latest dramatic turn in the war has confounded Sudanese citizens who now face the prospect of a Sudan ruled by a dreaded paramilitary force that has looted much of the capital and been accused of carrying out war crimes in the western Darfur region.
The war has already killed at least 10,000 people, though Sudanese health workers and United Nations officials say that is a vast underestimate.
Some 300,000 people have fled Wad Madani in recent days, according to the United Nations. Many of them, ill and hungry, left the city on foot and walked for hours to neighboring states as they dragged suitcases and sheets holding their meager belongings.
The World Food Program has unfortunately also halted some desperately needed food shipments to the area in response to rising safety concerns:
The United Nations food agency has temporarily suspended food assistance in some parts of Sudan’s al-Jazirah state where it was supporting more than 800,000 people, as fighting spreads south and east of the country’s capital, Khartoum.
About 300,000 people have fled the previously peaceful state in a matter of days, since clashes erupted last week, the World Food Programme (WFP) said on Wednesday.
Swedish Ascension to NATO
Officially Erdogan dropped his objections to Sweden joining NATO (surrounding perceived Swedish sheltering of dissidents from the Turkish Kurdistan Workers’ Party) way back in the summer, but little forward progress has happened since then.
Turkey, Sweden and Finland reached an agreement last year to tackle Ankara’s security concerns and Sweden subsequently took steps to tighten its anti-terrorism laws, making support for extremist organizations punishable by up to eight years in prison.
But a series of anti-Turkey and anti-Islam protests held in Stockholm, some of which involved the burning of the Quran, has also angered Erdogan’s government and the Turkish public. Although these demonstrations were condemned by the Swedish government, the Turkish government criticized Sweden — which has laws protecting free speech — for allowing displays of anti-Muslim sentiment.
Now, reportedly, Turkey has come back to the table for something they care (about the optics at least) even more:
NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg said at the alliance’s summit meeting in July that Sweden had agreed “to support actively the efforts to reinvigorate Turkey’s EU accession process.” Sweden announced it would seek improved customs arrangements and take steps to implement visa-free European travel for Turkish citizens.
Turkey’s equivalent of the House Foreign Affairs Committee has now signed off on Swedish ascension. It’ll now be voted on in the entire parliament and then sent to Erdogan for his signature. He holds a majority so technically there shouldn’t be an issue, though reportedly some members of his party are upset by recent Kurdish attacks on a Turkish base, resurrecting the whole Sweden-KPP thing in people’s minds.
Now the only holdout is Hungary, which is mad about Sweden accusing Fidesz of autocratic leanings and holding up EU funds. Previously the Hungarian Foreign Minister had “promised” that Hungary “won’t be the last holdout” in approving Sweden, which looks to be a rapidly approaching situation, but only last week Orban said that there was no deal to move Swedish ascension forward. Hungarian parliament is apparently on recess until all the way in the middle of February (somehow making American politicians appear hardworking in comparison) so we won’t have an official answer for a while anyway.
Belarus
…is now officially a nuclear power. Ostensibly Russia has complete control over these assets, we’ll see if that’s true. It’s remarkable that throughout all of this Belarus has not lifted a finger to assist in the war despite ostensibly being a Russian satellite state, no onger even allowing Russian troops to attack Ukrainian territory over the Belarussian border after the first two months of the conflict.
Soriek
11mo ago
No problem! It is in ways surprisingly similar at times to the US, though I do think it's still fair to call SC center-left / left rather than center-right economically (though the Socialist Party may well disagree). Ironically while the two parties' divisions are largest socially, it probably was mostly the poor economy and persistent inflation that lost the left the last legislative elections. Chileans have used up some of their patience on politicians putting exciting hot button stuff over bread and butter issues, a lesson for the conservatives after their failed attempt at a constitution as well.
I think the stat is that 80% of divorces are filed by women, which is different than "initiated by". If your husband cheats on you, or hits you, and you file a divorce, who really initiated it?
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