RenOS
the mountain passed, the sea in front
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User ID: 2051
RenOS
the mountain passed, the sea in front
3mo ago
Nate Silver was right yet again. The most generally applicable is probably simple - trust the polls. If people tell you that they don't like either of two options, then giving them a third option will improve your odds. Kamala somewhat outperforms her old polling, but the writing has been on the wall for some time that almost any replacement for Biden will improve the D's odds.
RenOS
the mountain passed, the sea in front
3mo ago
If your post was entirely about how men just really like building, fighting, hunting, etc. and that modern jobs simply fail to fulfill some primal male urges I'd completely agree! Though I'd add that modern jobs struggle to sufficiently fulfill many primal female urges as well.
But a large chunk of your post was about how men resent certain female jobs and in particular resent doing jobs if - and because - a women can do them. This is a fairly common claim I hear, and it's in my view an inversion of reality ; It's primarily women who resent men doing a job they can do themselves, similar to how the average man does not resent successful women, but successful women resent the average man.
This reminds of the study (don't have the link, sorry, it's quite some time ago) that claimed to show that men resent and feel threatened by female success, and that this is a large part of successful womens' struggle with dating, based on the fact that men are much less attracted to successful women.
The numbers? Seeing a highly prestigious/high earning job such as CEO increases a woman's chance to consider dating that person by something like 50%, whereas men give only a 10% premium. On the other hand, seeing someone with a less prestigious/lower earning job than them reduced the chance to consider dating that person for the majority of women to near zero irrespective of other qualities, while men only gave a 20% penalty or so.
In other words, men just don't consider women's jobs as super-important either way. Only a minority of men resent that "a woman could do this". It's women who look down on male cashiers so much that they'd never consider dating one.
But as usual, everyone tries to find a way to blame men.
RenOS
the mountain passed, the sea in front
3mo ago
I think you mean you conscientiousness? Though contentiousness might be an entertaining quality as well.
RenOS
the mountain passed, the sea in front
3mo ago
Having some doubt after a while in a relationship is normal, and it does not surprise me that for a mottizen it expresses itself in this way. You should ask yourself whether you really think this, or whether you are rationalizing your own cold feet.
That said, being a strong proponent of some level of HBD as well, I can understand this fear. But there is nothing wrong with shape rotators or pragmatism. Arguably, the biggest biological winners of modernity where workers and farmers, while many intellectual families struggled to even keep their numbers steady despite living in splendour. I don't think history vindicated an attitude of intellectual genetic purity. Your children will still resemble you substantially, and maybe a little bit less depressive self-consciuousness might be a good thing. You say she has many desirable qualities; You should imo aim for such a good mix, instead of pure IQ-maxing (though I agree that IQ should be considered disproportionally due to its importance).
RenOS
the mountain passed, the sea in front
3mo ago
No, progressives can be quite authoritarian. In fact plenty kind of organically function similar to three letter agencies in this respect - If they don't directly work on something they'll not check, let alone call into question the work of an ally. And if they do, they'll be careful to only publish correct results, lest it might be "misused". I've been personally told better not to research something bc I might get unpopular results, and this was by someone who otherwise was quite willing to pick a fight on other issues that don't go against his politics.
RenOS
the mountain passed, the sea in front
3mo ago
Getting "proper" swing voters is one thing, but I get the impression that there is a decent number of people who disliked Trump enough to be somewhat receptive to this rhetoric, while also thinking Biden is sufficiently senile that they didn't want to vote for him either.
Also, Harris has a lot of unpopular policy positions, so just focusing on how bad Trump is and otherwise staying as "generic democrat" as possible might genuinely be the most EV-positive for her overall.
RenOS
the mountain passed, the sea in front
4mo ago
It's a well-known, specific exorcism and warding against evil spirits phrase in certain religious community. And these exorcisms would often include holy water. Even assuming it was meant jokingly - which I don't, it sounds to me more like crazy person rambling - , the "joke" here is something like "I'm gonna throw this scalding water in your face like a demon lol".
RenOS
the mountain passed, the sea in front
4mo ago
That's the Trump shooter afaik; I don't know that particular photo, though, nor do I understand the implications.
RenOS
the mountain passed, the sea in front
4mo ago
My expectation at this stage is that no one actually challenges, and Biden is coronated. Taking him on is a highly risky option - if you fail and Biden loses some people will blame you for the loss, potentially killing your future prospects. If you take him on and he wins that's even worse - now the President has a very personal grudge against you.
Maybe I'm misunderstanding the american system, but rebelling at the convention does not actually directly impact Biden's chances at the general election, right? At most indirectly since it makes the democrats look chaotic.
But the popular impression & even the mainstream media is sufficiently critical of Biden at this point that I think there is a good chance that if someone already sympathetic challenges Biden, and Biden wins the convention anyway, but then proceeds to lose the general election, that person will get a large boost in popularity and media pieces about "if only so-and-so had won the convention, everything would have been different". It might even be better for the person than winning the convention outright, since no potential democratic nominee has a >50% chance of beating trump. Better make a good impression now and then fight against someone else in the next election.
RenOS
the mountain passed, the sea in front
4mo ago
Even assuming that DC is so well recorded that it is almost impossible to not notice, it doesn't need to outright be an op. It can simply be someone inconvenient for whatever story the CIA wants to push. Which in this case would probably mean somebody who is openly and obviously anti-trump. But again, that would just be damning in a different way.
RenOS
the mountain passed, the sea in front
4mo ago
I agree one could have seen the signs from the start, but it was easy to tolerate or even join in the sneering since many of the early targets were simultaneously ridiculous and unsympathetic, like scientology.
RenOS
the mountain passed, the sea in front
4mo ago
He didn't say that evil is the goal, merely that he did it deliberately. As in, the kind of person who knowingly dumps poison in the river if it's not punished, as opposed to the person who is just running their plant so incompetently that they can't stop polluting everything even if they don't want to. As you may guess, I'd prefer the former, since he can be persuaded to change his way, while the latter is incapable of doing so.
Imo history has vindicated him; The advent of meritocracy, which often only cared about morality insofar as the person can be relied upon not to work against the interests of the employer, caused a major speed-up of progress. Greed used to be seen as a vice that needs to be reigned in, but through capitalism we managed to channel it into productivity instead.
I don't necessarily think we should entirely ignore morality, but combining competence with good incentives leads more reliably to good results.
Huh, you're clearly more knowledgeable about bees than I am. The queen suppressing the workers' reproduction with scent reminds of an argument I've heard; That, while the gay uncle hypothesis doesn't make evolutionary sense for the gay uncle himself, it does make sense for his siblings. Meaning, effectively castrating your brother so that he has to invest into your offspring is a viable strategy. It wasn't a very popular argument, however.
RenOS
the mountain passed, the sea in front
4mo ago
No, worker bees are sterile and afaik share half the genome of the queen, so serving the queen is in their direct "genetic interest". This is classic kin selection.
People really, really like the idea of group selection but from an evolutionary perspective, it just doesn't seem to work out. People have tried it to model it, but it always ends up collapsing. The problem is precisely the "weeding out free-riders and the hidden sociopathic". Kin-selection does so automatically, since if you're cooperative, your relatives tend to be as well and if not vice versa. Furthermore, clan structures can and do weed out free-riders directly as well.
Btw, this does not mean that free association and broad cooperation is impossible long-term; It just means that you need to structure it in a reciprocal way so that everyone benefits.
RenOS
the mountain passed, the sea in front
4mo ago
I really hate these. One half is specific to a tiny cultural niche of elites, the other half is more about the author propagating an image of themselves than about actual advice. General good advice is a rounding error.
Some examples:
Eat beforehand. You aren’t distracted about what’s being served or chasing down a tray of mini hot dogs, letting you focus on the most important thing: connecting with people.
No. If food is served, it's rude to eat beforehand. Also very wasteful behaviour, the host feels obligated to set up enough for everyone, the guests don't eat and at the end it gets thrown out.I know this is what cultural elites behave like, but normal people do not and it's a good thing.
Please don’t ask people to take off their shoes when entering your apartment. It’s rude.
Where I'm from it's the polar opposite. You don't even need to ask, everyone ALWAYS takes their shoes off and if not it's considered quite rude unless they stay in the hallway. Not everyone gets to have a job where they only move through clean spaces and/or can pay maids to clean after them.
If you’re going to go, go. Do not plan to leave the party early. If you have to leave early, I say do not come.
This just screams "Either we do it my way or not at all." It's the mindset of someone who is so popular that they can confidently tell people to fuck off for flimsy reasons and still be confident that there'll be a line waiting behind them. No, it's perfectly normal to have multiple obligations and to compromise between them.
RenOS
the mountain passed, the sea in front
4mo ago
There is multiple popular theories under which it makes sense. The simplest and most common on the left is that trans is real, but there is no reliable way to detect it except through introspection by the person itself. And introspection is hard, and even harder if you're young, so it's better to set up at least some safeguards to make sure that people really get to think things through. This is also why there used to be rules like "try to life like a woman for 3 years and if you still like it, we can talk about that bottom surgery". In fact this used to be the dominant theory, and it's a pity that it got replaced by the current insanity, even though I don't entirely agree with it either it's just much, much less destructive.
Unfortunately "low functioning" has become a bit of a no-no term, everyone is either "high functioning" or just has autism (which still includes plenty of "medium functioning"). There's a few newish papers using the term, but most are older, and none are about what we are interested in.
But as usual in science, you can read between the lines. Generally speaking, autism is nowadays considered a continuous range of impairment, literally called ASD (autism spectrum disorder). One of the more popular ways to measure it is the social responsiveness score (SRS), which is then transformed into the SRS T-score (corrected for age, gender etc. similar to how IQ isn't just a raw test score but normed to 100). The T-score is normed to 50 with an SD of 10, so 60- is normal, 60+ mild, 65+ medium, 75+ severe. There's also quite a few other measures, but understanding at least one makes reading the papers a lot easier.
I'd say the closest to what you want to know is the heritability of these quantitative traits (1,2). TL;DR: the SRS T-score is moderately to highly heritable, in fact most measures of ASD severity are. In particular, I'm a big fan of monozygotic vs dizygotic twin comparisons since they sidestep many of the usual complaints, which in this case leads to a high heritability estimate of ~56-95%. There's a few other concepts you can take a look at, such as familial risk (which often don't include a measure of severity, only an ASD yes/no which is imo outdated at this point) or autism prs scores, but the results are mostly consistent between them.
So, in short, your children will most likely have an autism level similar to your own, with maybe a slight correction towards the mean and with a significant variance. Which necessarily implies a substantially increased chance of severe outcomes given the continuous nature of the disease. Exact numbers are difficult to give without knowing more, sorry. But chances of 10% and upwards, depending on where you make the cutoff of what you consider sufficiently problematic, aren't implausible.
On a sidenote, my favorite approach is measuring the degree of relatedness between siblings (for those that don't know, siblings, unlike parent-offspring pair which always get almost exactly 50% of each parent, can in theory range from 0-100% in genetic relatedness depending on which part of the parent's genome they get, though in practice it's a normal distribution around 50%) and then measuring the heritability based on that. Since this is doable for the majority of society, it further sidesteps some complaints about twin and/or adoption studies such as non-generalisability or different treatment between obviously different siblings.
RenOS
the mountain passed, the sea in front
5mo ago
Imo his handle is a bit too on the nose for his posting habits. This forum is primarily filled with incorrigible contrarians soapboxing about everything that is wrong, so with his stated views he does end up constantly posting that, well, everything is fine.
RenOS
the mountain passed, the sea in front
5mo ago
Its different with your own kids imo and you learn to deal with it. I used to be pretty awkward and easily annoyed around kids, nowadays I can spend hours even with other kids.
Also, you should simply keep them active. Most times when kids talk that much they aren't outside enough. And you can tell your kid to shut up once in a while, it's just that modern parents are absolute doormats way too often. But they're not gonna sit still, you need some activity for them to engage in, ideally you have some default things that you worked out together. For example, our daughter is three and on weekends if she wakes up earlier than us, if we tell her sternly that she can either come cuddle or do her own thing, but we will not get up earlier than ~8, she will just go to her art corner in the living room and draw things, or go to her toy kitchen and pretend-make coffee and so on.
In general my experience with having kids that things that I thought would be a problem weren't, and the problems were things that I wasn't aware of beforehand.
RenOS
the mountain passed, the sea in front
5mo ago
This is pretty much my life already tbh. Our district is literally called "university district" and the demographics are exactly what you would expect, we have a giant park in front of us that is overall very clean and has multiple nice playgrounds, my "commute" is <10 mins (by bike) to my daughter's daycare and <5 mins (by foot) to my work. We live in an historic city with a beautiful old town center that we can visit in less than 30 mins (by bike, again).
The pay admittedly isn't great for our level of education but still far above average and easily enough to get by with a family. There is a minor crime issue, mostly stealing bikes.
Imo, SPN was at its strongest in the first two seasons, when it was 90% episodic monster and 10% overarching season storyline. Kripke also said himself that he originally intended for the show to be only three seasons. My personal impression was that the Azazel storyline (the first two seasons) fit with the design of the show in general (in a show about hunting down monsters, hunting down a more powerful monster makes sense) and seemed clearly intended from the beginning, the Lilith storyline ( third and fourth season) already felt tacked-on and increasing scope clearly strained their resources as you said, and the Lucifer storyline (fifth season) was just the same problems, but moreso. He also did several bait-and-switches already (SAM IS DEAD! Lol nope he isn't DEAN IS IN HELL! lol nope he's back on earth).
Every season after that was just repeating the mistakes that Kripke had already committed. Kripke also still stayed on the show as an consultant for the entire runtime, and being the orginal creator I don't believe that he didn't give his blessing for the garbage that was to come.
90% of Isekai is exactly this, though. For a while it's fun, but doesn't it get boring fast?
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