RandomRanger
Just build nuclear plants!
No bio...
User ID: 317
RandomRanger
Just build nuclear plants!
13hr ago
Some people are weird about anime, sure...
Does this really matter much? There are far worse things that can happen with kids, drugs for one. How many people got turned into zombies or mindbroken by anime vs drugs? Its rare for 4-5 people to be wiped out by a driver under the influence of Boku No Pico. Alchohol on the other hand does cause that kind of problem.
Let people enjoy things that aren't super bad for them.
The issue is more about the weakwilled and overly impressionable than the prevalence of anime or hentai or discord groomers. It's easy to not get groomed on discord. I'm all for public executions of 09A or 764 people, blow them away with an autocannon... But there are always going to be cults and powerful malign forces out there. Way more so with AI development. One can only imagine the toxic combination of AI and these nascent chaotic evil movements.
The issue isn't normie vs not normie or degen anime vs classic TV but strong-willed vs weak-willed.
RandomRanger
Just build nuclear plants!
14hr ago
You only need to extrapolate these curves out to see that by 2030 the vast majority of cars will be electric and we'll be approaching majority clean energy. All we must do to fix global warming is to keep on the path we're going down.
So far as I can see all energy sources are at all time highs in total energy output. Coal is higher than ever before, oil is higher than ever before, renewables are higher than ever before.
Anyway, all clean energy does in climate terms is lower the rate of increase in temperature. CO2 that's up there in the atmosphere stays up there unless we take it out. Electrifying cars cannot help with this.
Plus the climate changes without us. There's oil in Antarctica, it used to be jungle down there. We didn't have anything to do with that!
Fixing global warming means controlling global temperatures directly, not merely adjusting our footprint. There are many ways to do this, mirrors and aerosols and painting things white, adjusting cloud formation.
Aerosols are my preferred approach, mimicking natural cooling effects induced by volcanoes. Aerosols can achieve immediate cooling effects sufficient to halt and reverse global warming at a modest cost of a few tens of billions per year. There are some tradeoffs with the ozone layer and weather patterns that could also be addressed with more effort. But aerosols are an actual solution to global warming, whereas renewables are not.
I think climate change discourse has gone down the wrong direction, there's a certain ecological angle that seeks to reduce human activity in all respects. A more mature approach is to accept that human destiny will not and should not be an unending burden as caretakers for nature. The world is not a national park, nobody is going to pay us to keep it as it was. We are responsible not as stewards but as owners and developers. We have been developing Earth for millennia, it is silly to stop now when the job is incomplete and say 'no further changes'.
Extinction should be avoided except for pests, which should be destroyed. But we could make new species as well. Slashing and burning jungles to make cheap beef is bad - not innately as a desecration of nature but because there are potentially valuable cures and biology there.
RandomRanger
Just build nuclear plants!
1d ago
OpenAI may indeed be undershooting in ads. But do we really think the ad market for chatbots is a mere $5 billion? What does that even mean? At what point in time?
Even as the AI bubble becomes a mainstream talking point on Wall Street, tech companies continue to peddle the fantasy that AI is poised to become an almost magical money-maker. Case in point, OpenAI wants you to believe that by 2030, it’ll be raking in $100 billion a year just from ads alone — even though it’s currently struggling to reach just $1 billion.
That massive gulf was observed in a new analysis from marketing consulting firm Emarketer, first flagged by AdWeek, which found OpenAI is on pace to undershoot its own five-year ad revenue projections by a whopping 90 percent. In fact, Emarketer’s take is even more devastating than that: it estimates that the entire addressable market for chatbot advertising — the maximum amount of money up for grabs overall — at $5.4 billion.
A lot of emotive language in the article...
If I go to the front page of Futurism, I find these article headlines about AI:
Climate Activists Pelt Microsoft Data Center With Balloons Full of Acid
OpenAI Appears to Be Missing Its Sales Goals by a Vast Margin
OpenAI Exec Laments That China Is Giving Away Models So Good That For-Profit Companies Won’t Be Able to Compete
The only time when AI is good is when it's bad for US companies it seems.
There’s a Gigantic Problem at the Heart of the AI Industry That Could Cause the Whole Thing to Collapse
Lawsuit Alleges That ChatGPT Encouraged Suicide of Woman Who Walked Into Traffic
Spotify Doubles Down on AI Slop As It’s Being Flooded With It
Amazon’s Robotaxi Company Recalls Its Fleet After One of its Cars Got Confused by Heavy Smoke
Lawsuit: Bipolar Man Attempted Suicide After ChatGPT Poured Gasoline on His Religious Delusions
New Paper Proposes What Really Causes AI Psychosis
Was This the Moment That AI Psychosis Began?
It’s Laughably Easy to Poison Open-Weight AI Models, Researcher Finds
If AI psychosis is so significant that it deserves a whole category of Futurism articles about it, surely that indicates there is some significant advertising power in AI, some ability to change minds? Only the technology hasn't been fully developed yet. And what about the google AI summary at the start of nearly all searches? There are ads above, below and within it. There are all kinds of effects going on, revenue shifting between Google Adsense and Search. I think it's a lot more complicated and a lot less one-sided than Futurism would have us think.
I am not OpenAI's top guy, I think the company is a negative force in the world and AI development is an extremely serious matter with the gravest possible implications for humanity. But this totally negative view that some outlets push is a distortion.
Case in point, the nearly 40 billion loss for OpenAI. That's true from a certain perspective but a good chunk of it is an accounting loss from the shift from non-profit to for-profit company, moving control around. That shift is reprehensible but means the 'true' financial loss is closer to $10-20 billion.
Where is the headline about AI disproving the Jacobian conjecture the other day? That's roughly Fields Medal worthy in mathematics, albeit of little practical relevance. These systems are extremely capable but that doesn't fit the narrative that the media wants. Journalists are extremely threatened by AI, as are media companies. Why would I want to look up articles and read them (let alone pay a j**rnalist!) when I can just ask an AI about OpenAI's losses? Why would a journalist want to get a real job when they could instead try to hyperstition an AI bubble into existence and stick it to their hated class enemies? Not all journos... but many.
RandomRanger
Just build nuclear plants!
1d ago
Going a little further back, in Jan 2024 Anthropic had $87 million ARR, by May 2026 they were at $47 billion ARR
Some have questioned this accounting, whether ARR is representative of realized revenue over the whole year. We shall have to wait for the IPO for more detailed accounting. But it seems likely that Anthropic is the fastest growing company in history.
It will be strictly worse in all cases, for all users, all developers, all maintainer, and all licence holders for the foreseeable future unless there is a massive improvement in the tools
If AI programming was so awful for users and developers, nobody would be paying tens of billions of dollars for it.
self driving cars are strictly worse in all cases for car-owners, pedestrians, mechanics and car companies for the foreseeable future unless there is a massive improvement
Statements by the utterly deranged! I guess lots of people might be getting emotional about self-driving cars, car accident lawyers for instance or race car enthusiasts... The same goes for AI programming but that's no excuse to let it cloud judgement.
RandomRanger
Just build nuclear plants!
2d ago
OK, slay the princess was short. But it was voiced and interesting. As for Coffin, I watched a streamer play through it and do voices for it and it was a pretty gripping, intense experience. There is a lot going on beyond 'incest haha'. There are themes, developed characters, intricate details for both.
Most of the reviewers had 10-20 hours.
Furthermore, the quality of a visual novel or any piece of literature is not decided by size. Otherwise Chinese webnovel bros would be the undisputed masters of writing. Visual novels don't need flashy graphics or voice acting to be excellent, the primary thing is the writing and all else is a cherry on top.
The test of quality should be in its review score. Anything overwhelmingly positive on steam has a perfectly good claim to high quality for its genre.
The West does not have a sufficiently large audience, nor a sufficiently talented voice acting scene, nor the level of culture to put forth the kind effort and budget required to make a proper visual novel.
Japan is not more cultured than the West. Anything Japan can do, the West can also do and vis versa. They're just more into visual novel type games, less into shooters or grand strategy. They could make a first rate shooter or 4X game, they just choose not to. Just because a Western audience might generally prefer more gameplay (putting it up from visual novel to 'story rich') or less gameplay (novel, cartoon) it doesn't mean there's some deficiency in the West compared to Japan.
To what, if any, extent should LLMs produce a mixture of races in their responses to race-neutral prompts?
AIs besides Grok tend to weight nonwhites more highly in general, see the statistics: https://arctotherium.substack.com/p/llm-exchange-rates-updated
https://arctotherium.substack.com/p/llm-fairness-in-realistic-settings
In June 2025, Adam Karvonen (independent) and Samuel Marks (Anthropic) published “Robustly Improving LLM Fairness in Realistic Settings via Interpretability,” which found that, under realistic conditions, contemporary LLMs would consistently favor otherwise identical resumes with female or stereotypically black names over those with male or stereotypically white names, even when explicitly prompted not to show any race or sex preferences, which previous papers had suggested was sufficient to eliminate this behavior.
In short he also then replicates this for more modern LLMs.
In my own experience some Claudes were fixated on Nigerian judges, peacemakers, journalists. This has since died down...
RandomRanger
Just build nuclear plants!
3d ago
What about Slay the Princess or the Coffin of Andy and Leyley? They're both overwhelmingly positive on Steam, comparable to Steins Gate.
RandomRanger
Just build nuclear plants!
4d ago
Anyone else think the new Kimi K3 is overhyped? I tried it on openrouter and it thought for 15000 tokens only to produce a pretty incoherent response. Code-maxxed perhaps, not really a conversationalist.
I know various technical people said 'oh they're not distilling look at how these benchmarks are so high', I can't help but think Kimi stole a Claude base model and then did their own post-training on top of that. And their post-training was a truly nightmarish hack-job, given how locked down Fable was.
Hopefully Deepseek comes up with something good soon and at a better price, gives us a little more token efficiency.
RandomRanger
Just build nuclear plants!
4d ago
Any better ideas and suggestions from Mottizen elite human capital?
Do what Soros does but in reverse. Get cadres into low-level positions and have them use their powers to directly achieve goals - criminals do not pass GO, do not collect $200 in welfare, go directly to jail!
Ensure enemies face constant legal harassment and investigations into their corruption and incompetence.
But first you have to have cadres, reliable people. And that's where the think tanks come in, these are for supporting cadres. NGOs are like barracks for storing, training, maintaining troops. It's also good to have a bunch of ideas ready for when there's a crisis. You can then say 'we know what to do, it's all prepared right here in glossy paper'.
Does the Vice President of the United States really not have the power to discover and communicate concrete specifics about something like this?
It's like the metaphor about what happens when you go witch-hunting. If you find some screaming wailing maiden and burn her to death, she's probably not a witch or her power level is pretty low.
If however you're investigating a Grand Elder of the High Coven, the investigation hits a total dead end, the relevant people find that nothing more can be done after saying they themselves personally are clearly exonerated, records are lost or must be redacted or the cameras just failed... well either there's an awful lot of bad luck or an awful lot of magic going on.
RandomRanger
Just build nuclear plants!
6d ago
I thought it was an ad just for AI engineers to show 'yeah we get it, this is existential, come work with us and not Zuck's short-form video hell factory or OpenAI's revolving-door chief safety facade officer'.
Anthropic doesn't care about the peasants, they want to draw more talented people from Google or OpenAI or Meta. Peasants include the bulk of the US govt too I think, standing up to Trump enhances Dario's clout amongst those he's really courting.
RandomRanger
Just build nuclear plants!
7d ago
A mother whose husband becomes abusive to her or her children will, if she has been denied education, be less able to provide for herself and her children without her husband's coöperation
And how many of those advocating for an end to women's education wholeheartedly support this?
I think that most such people believe that there should be some payout/divorce mechanics for abuse, they just think that the standards for proving abuse are too low. No fault divorce means that there is scarcely any need to prove abuse. Also, there's a welfare state so that even if there were no such payments it's not forced destitution.
having enough understanding of the rudiments of nuclear processes, DNA repair, and exponential decay curves to see through, or at least understand the counterarguments to, the usual array of anti-nuclear canards.
I think it'd be great if the education system taught this but they don't teach it, at least not effectively. Women are consistently more anti-nuclear than men, I guess it's innately male-coded. Women, on average, are more likely to support anti-nuclear Green parties.
According to a YouGov poll, while 74% of men support nuclear power, only 30% of women do; similarly, 64% of men believe it is safe compared to 28% of women
Or consider astrology. Nobody taught astrology in schools but women are a lot more into it than men! It's not to say that men are more rational than women in a global sense, men do plenty of stupid things and die young. But there's a certain kind of rationality that men have and women, in general, lack and I don't see how education can fix this. Can young men be taught not to take risks? I doubt it.
I'm maybe the second biggest AI fan on this forum after you but even I don't like the idea. AI for coding is great, AI for research is great, AI for thinking through ideas is pretty good... But AI for outward facing political discussion and especially moderation is a step too far. There's an informal policy where largely AI-written comments are discouraged I believe, or at least amadan leans in that direction. If it can't/shouldn't be posting, it certainly shouldn't be moderating.
Giving it the full context in a long reply chain could also be troublesome. Inference costs add up.
Also are there really issues with current human moderation? I occasionally see some bait post that still gets like 10 replies (people need to learn how to not get baited) and maybe a ban... that doesn't seem like it needs an AI system. It's totally fine to let things slip through, sometimes I click that 'the motte needs you' button and I see a massive wall of quotes and text and I think 'I'm not reading all that.' That's a normal human reaction that needn't be made up for by machinery. We could just as well let the posts sit there.
RandomRanger
Just build nuclear plants!
7d ago
Handing over money to strangers by deception is a financial error primarily and only secondarily social. A social error would be a faux pas.
RandomRanger
Just build nuclear plants!
8d ago
It's kind of interesting because you can't tell how much is just the author largely ignoring prose after a certain point and how much is the translator. And then there's the weirdness of the language itself, there's a lot going on in Chinese names that we barely even get to see since 'Feng Jin Huang' is just meaningless to us.
RandomRanger
Just build nuclear plants!
8d ago
A mother whose husband becomes abusive to her or her children will, if she has been denied education, be less able to provide for herself and her children without her husband's coöperation
The state already pays for this or it gets the ex-husband to pay?
II. A mother without a solid understanding of the world will be much more vulnerable to claims of "Your children are in grave danger from everything I don't like!" or "My magic beans will guarantee that your children enjoy perfect health!"
Does education even help here? Are women, or men for that matter, taught about what supplements might or might not have any benefit? Does the teaching sink in? Are the teachings actually correct? Everyone was taught a lot of nonsense about the food pyramid, saturated fat vs sugar vs whatever...
Some people are just stupid/unwise that can't be changed. Send a stupid, unwise person to school and they'll come out just as they went in.
Charlotte Cowles, a financial advice columnist for The Cut and The New York Times, was scammed out of $50,000 in an elaborate phone scheme that began on Halloween 2023. After receiving a call from a fraudster posing as Amazon customer service, she was transferred to imposters claiming to be from the Federal Trade Commission and the CIA, who falsely accused her of international money laundering and identity theft.
Under the threat of arrest and surveillance, Cowles withdrew the cash from her bank and placed it in a shoebox, which she handed through the window of a white Mercedes SUV to a stranger posing as an undercover agent
Basic financial competence is not taught, nor is it required even for teaching or providing information to others. I know it's just an anecdote but apparently nobody thought that this woman is unsuitable for giving financial advice even after coming to worldwide prominence for spectacular financial incompetence. It's systemic, like how educators decide to teach their students badly (re phonics) because it's a fashionable fun fad in the education world.
Education can teach skills like engineering or mathematics but it doesn't seem to teach anything like these general life heuristics you're gesturing at. You'd think people would learn about compound interest and credit cards, the concept is pretty simple... But they don't!
Firstly, bombing Iranian industry aggressively means they'll destroy oil industry throughout the Middle East in retaliation, causing severe economic damage via oil shortages. Blockading Iran means they blockade back, they've been doing that the whole time. The whole point of this current phase of the war is to prevent that economic damage, to open the straits, not raze the Gulf oil production.
Secondly, an industrial state is an innately more dangerous opponent. Iran makes things, Iranians are makers. They can rebuild industry, move industry underground, make decoys and so on. At a certain point they'd decide to nuclearize, surely. Or launch strikes against the US heartland with Ukraine-style drone attacks from third countries/special forces against sensitive areas. The US has one factory producing ball powder for munitions and is building one (1) TNT factory, with zero operational. Iran can cause all kinds of problems.
Thirdly, the WW2 playbook means WW2 casualties. WW2 was not a bombing-only campaign, it required a ground campaign or at least the threat of a ground campaign to achieve victory in Europe and against Japan. The US could prevail if it were fully committed I think, if it threw all other concerns aside and focused everything on Iran. But America is not Putin's Russia. Iran doesn't really matter to US interests and the forces that can realistically be brought to bear are not going to get much done.
I don't think that Trump and the US have the necessary political strength to beat Iran, the gulf in will is too great. The strategy just doesn't work given the constraints of geography and capabilities.
RandomRanger
Just build nuclear plants!
9d ago
The cost in treasure and lives would be far less than in Afghanistan or Iraq
The Iranians aren't Iraqis and it's not 2003 anymore. The wars against Afghanistan and Iraq were the US hammering soft targets who were unprepared and ill-equipped. Iraq was open plains, suitable for mechanized offensives. The Taliban in Afghanistan didn't have any advanced weapons whatsoever. Iran has advanced weapons, mountains and marshes plus fairly competent soldiers.
Iran is well-prepared, their whole military strategy is designed to counter America. Plus Iran is just a whole lot bigger than Iraq or Afghanistan. Since Iran is 3x Iraq's population, US casualties should be at least 3x higher even if Iranians were at the same tier as Iraqis, which they aren't.
What is the US military supposed to do? More bombing? The last waves of bombing didn't really work, bombing doesn't really work in general as a war-winner, except as a way to weaken a target for a ground campaign. Only special circumstances make bombing effective.
A ground invasion would be a giant million-man extravaganza. That's the whole US Army, Marines and a good chunk of the national guard. How are they even supposed to get in enough supplies when all nearby US bases are being bombed? First Iran's missile and drone forces need to be suppressed which the US hasn't been able to do. If they couldn't do that during the last few months of bombing, why would they be able to do so now or after the mid-terms?
The US military couldn't do much substantial damage to the Houthis in Yemen a couple years back, they'll just bounce off Iran in the same way.
RandomRanger
Just build nuclear plants!
10d ago
Quite right, it's like those ftm people who film these tearful face-in-camera clips for tiktok about how they never realized men don't have these female-style social attachments and how it's so lonely being a man and how men need to act more like women in affirming eachother. Mindset, worldview and even diction remains female even with some wimpy beard and hairstyle changes on the outside.
There are indeed actual men who go on tiktok and behave like that, there are male feminist types... but it's a very unusual kind of man who does this and many of them might just be faking it for access to pussy.
He said that would've taken a couple of engineers a few weeks to do, so not a small effort.
RandomRanger
Just build nuclear plants!
11d ago
True, they're smart to a certain extent, capable and determined and creative. The rank and file are pretty dumb though. In the paper they talk about how Boko Haram has to get technical support from 'the white guys', not quite sure whether they mean Arabs or Western converts.
If you really want to create a global caliphate though, what you need are large capable armies, airpower, missiles, H-bombs rather than cheap tricks with truck bombs and drones. Terrorists are forced into these unconventional strategies because they're the underdog, they lack the proper financing, industry, organization and materiel. And all of that is really a product of high intelligence.
"How the Terrorist Group Boko Haram Uses Frontier AI"
https://casp.ac/reports/ai-enabled-terrorism
I found the article a bit surreal where it talks about how ISIS sends people around to conduct AI training... How strange to think that so many white-collar office guys find it all tedious and dull but your average jihadist is like 'it's very helpful!' and they're warming to the technology. Also I wonder if these AIs really know that much, shouldn't the terrorists know how to make bombs and conduct attacks, that's their whole gig? On the other hand, one doesn't consider Boko Haram to be the sharpest minds in the Islamist world so even existing AI models are quite helpful.
It is based on interviews though and may be complete nonsense, the terrorists just lying to this researcher:
Because the sensitivity of the topic and the difficulty of accessing this population meant the accuracy of individual accounts could not always be independently verified, throughout this study I state broadly corroborated patterns as fact and attribute narrower claims explicitly to interviewees.
Some excerpts:
Struggling to operate some of the loot, ISWAP’s leader al-Barnawi stated in a letter to the Islamic State back in 2017: “I am reminded of a funny story when about a year ago, we seized Dragunov rifles as war spoils and we had to make them work so we could use them. We checked many handbooks and specialized videos on this technical issue, but we eventually dropped it in despair after all our attempts failed.” 88 This account contrasts with how these situations are handled and resolved today, where “we take all of the equipment back to the camp and the AI unit tells us how to use and shoot with it.” 89 According to a former JAS technical specialist: “When we managed to seize a sophisticated weapon, the leaders took it to a room where they typed in the number of the weapon. It [AI] then tells you what model it is, how it will be loaded, used, and serviced.” 90 In one recounted instance, when ISWAP fighters were handed out new guns and they did not know how to correctly use them, they approached their qaid, who passed on the message to a specialist, who in turn replied, “just ask Grok,” which they then did.
They argued about what to do with the bomb. Some fighters wanted to dig it out, others not. They touched it and it exploded. 40 people died. Now they have new rules. Everyone has to stay far away and only one person digs.
We saw in a movie how motorcycles can jump over bridges. We used AI to learn how to do this. We gave it information, like what motorcycles we use and the distance we need to jump and so on and it gave us steps on what we have to do. We practiced a lot and kept asking questions. We dug holes and filled them with broken glass and fire to practice. 18 of us died in the process. Eight of us managed to do it. The next time we attacked, we could jump.
I went to the qaid to type a question about different ways to manufacture bombs. He said he could only get the answer if he knew exactly what the problem was. I told him about how the wires were connected in a way that seemed to prevent the bomb from going off. ChatGPT gave some explanations but they were not very clear. He contacted some people about how to put the question, and then it gave us useful information on how exactly to connect the wires, and it worked. I don’t know what he typed that made it work. They call people in the network for this kind of help every day
There's also some interesting intra-terrorist discourse on 'poison' which is banned under Islam and can even get people killed if they want to use it, vs 'powders' which are apparently OK for senior commanders to use. Poison really means 'fouling a water source' which is obviously very bad in a desert context, so they analogize things to poison vs just normal chemical weapons which are more acceptable? But everything is discussed in these crazy immature, unsophisticated ways so it's bizarre, it's that they're grasping for concepts like collateral damage or selectivity but don't quite have the diction for them. I think a major region why terrorism isn't such a big issue is that most of the terrorists are basically retarded, they're drawing from a population of retards. Ultimately AI won't be able to help them as much as it can for a non-retarded population though.
Skip the academic babble and move straight onto the interviews I think, that's the fun part of the article.
RandomRanger
Just build nuclear plants!
11d ago
The kind of recursive self-improvement the Rats were talking about would be if you could distill Fable just from the output of Opus.
It's not distillation that we're talking about, this is what the guy is saying. The model is actually doing the training process directly. Aidan works at OpenAI on post-training.
https://x.com/aidan_mclau/status/2075328409400738229
i cannot tell you how routine it is for me to have 5.6 e2e do an entire rl run
He also says that it's guided a lot by his taste.
Likewise, it's not Fable distillation that we're talking about but Fable actually directly performing research tasks in machine learning, overseeing experiments, improving utilization. 'How do I get GPU utilization up Fable, look at these stats for me and these logs, should I change the kernel?' is what we're talking about. Anthropic deliberately degrades that ability.
Now I agree that what is being proposed in AI 2040 is very difficult and a little naive. The notion that the US is gonna build all these datacentres in Mongolia so China could feel confident they could capture them is pretty unlikely, that's not really how it works... It has a sense of nerdy 'here's my rules-lawyering to fix the problem' to it. But what is the alternative path? Unilateral racing? A free for all between the most psychopathic/paranoid billionaire and intelligence agency spook for control? This is the best answer they could find, given the constraints of the system. I can't come up with anything better, so even while I have criticisms I think that on the whole they did a decent job.
Alchohol is fine for most, harmful for some. OP was taking a shot at a teetotaller family.
Anime is fine for most, harmful for some. Probably much less harmful. Why have a complex about it and ban it?
More options
Context Copy link