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Quantumfreakonomics


				

				

				
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joined 2022 September 05 00:54:12 UTC

				

User ID: 324

Quantumfreakonomics


				
				
				

				
1 follower   follows 0 users   joined 2022 September 05 00:54:12 UTC

					

No bio...


					

User ID: 324

I'd be an asshole too if I had to defend my country from ISIS, Turkey, The United States, and Israel all at the same time.

Surely these picks are a smokescreen. I bet JD Vance is huddling with Yarvin, Musk, and Thiel in a smoke-filled room right now discussing which anon Twitter accounts and Mottizens will get the call to serve in the shadow cabinet. They must be cross-referencing the Gray Mirror Substack subscriber list to make sure they don’t accidentally double-count any alts.

I still audibly chuckle every time I hear the phrase “subject-matter jurisdiction”.

For those who don’t know, this guy’s trial got live-streamed. It was one of the funniest things I have ever seen. He represented himself, made a gigantic fool of himself, and constantly interrupted the proceedings with insane legal theories. The best part was the judge couldn’t do anything about it. Normally you would hold somebody like that in contempt of court, but this guy was already in jail, and already facing down almost certain life without parole. Holding him in contempt would have done nothing except delay the inevitable, so everyone had to just sit there and take it for weeks.

Can you steelman the "democracy in peril" argument?

The argument is pretty straightforward: Any democratic system of government relies upon the ruling party being willing to cede power when it loses an election, otherwise the elections would be meaningless (lemma: if any power existed that could force the ruling party to cede power, that entity would be the de facto ruling party). Donald Trump lost the 2020 election. Donald Trump did not conced the election until after his schemes to change state vote counts, appoint fraudulent electors, and pressure Mike Pence to not count the electoral votes failed. Donald Trump's schemes failed because his underlings in the government were not willing to go along with his plans. Given the level of influence that Donald Trump has over the Republican Party, in his second term, he could appoint only underlings who he is sure will go along with his schemes next time.

For the last 25 years, the number 1 test for any GOP nominated SCOTUS judge should have been “Will you rule birthright citizenship unconstitutional”, because this is the ONLY thing that matters when it comes to immigration.

I think appointing judges who would rule the constitution unconstitutional is bad actually.

The purpose of a system is what it does. This is related to the iron law of bureaucracy. The reason campaigns want money isn’t so that they can win elections. The reason campaigns want money is so that they can run the campaign. More money = more stuff for the people running the campaign.

As for why it seems to affect Democrats more than Republicans, guess which party has non-profit employees as a constituency.

The stock market and bitcoin are in fact at all-time highs. To be fair, they were already close to all-time highs before the election, but there was a large spike immediately after the election that can only be attributed to Trump. (The popular cope is that the markets were reacting to a decisive result, not nessesarily to Trump himself. This is cope.)

Nick Fuentes doesn't even like girls. I don't just mean that he's a mysoginist. I don't even think he likes them sexually.

I'm certainly not going to say, "your body, my choice," is good rhetoric, but there is a kernel of reducto ad absurdam to it. It's saying, "Hey, y'all were the ones saying, 'my body, my choice,' was on the ballot. Y'all lost, so now by your own reasoning that means your body is my choice, because we won."

We had been dating for over a year. None of that mattered. It was like it retroactively made everything we went through together a lie to her.

We did have a discussion. She was willing to hear me out. I am also surprised it didn’t come to light earlier. I think her logic was: “Obviously no respectable person would ever vote for Trump. My boyfriend is a respectable person. Therefore, my boyfriend obviously wouldn’t vote for Trump.”

The conversation was very 2015 Tumblr. The one thing I didn’t have a response to was when she brought up the fact that she has friends who are “undocumented”. I could probably salvage this by going full Hanania and pledging my opposition to deportations and my support for abortion, which is a quite tempting option at the moment tbh.

I am legitimately worried that my girlfriend will break up with me if/when she finds out that I voted for Trump. She has always been an incredibly sweet and kind person, but her social media since the election has become unhinged. Like, some are more hateful than the worst comments I have seen on Reddit. We basically don't talk politics at all with each other, and I have no intention of changing that, but I am a bad liar with a terrible poker face, so if she becomes suspicious there’s not much I can do (I also have ethical qualms with lying, but these are essentially moot given the concerns above.)

EDIT: She found out. She was VERY upset. I'm like 75% sure its over.

The big thing Matt Yglesias leaves out of this list that makes him a Democrat is that he wants to expand social welfare programs and raise taxes.

If anyone wants to make a name for himself as a right-wing policy wonk, coming up a regulatory scheme that makes for legitimate medical exceptions without allowing doctors to give away get-out-of-birth-free cards would be a good place to start.

Overheard in a Wilmington nursing home:

"Mr. Biden, we need you to tell us who you want making decisions for you."

"NO! I'm the only one... with the medicare... to defeat Donald Trump... and the maga..."

All things considered, I think he did okay on inflation given the hand he was dealt. I think inflation is a big reason why Kamala lost, but I don't think people realize how much worse not implementing those inflationary COVID policies would be.

The main thing you missed is that the swing states are correlated. If the polls miss extra Trump support, that will most likely materialize across demographically similar states. A 2-3 point polling error in Trump's favor (one standard deviation) wins him all the swing states.

RFK

Stocks are up. Railroad stocks are way up. Pharma stocks are down.

Tax cuts, tarrifs, and drug backlash being priced in as we speak.

Maybe? but probably not. 2020 was just a weird year in a massive number of ways. I guess am a bit more sympathetic now to the argument that mail-in expansion and other COVID electoral changes were "spiritual" fraud.

I wouldn't have had a huge problem if Trump had been wink-wink nudge-nudge about it after 2020 instead of the tantrum he decided to throw, but apparently I don't have a clue what the median voter likes.

Has anyone seen JD Vance this evening?

Trump is within single digits in New Jersey. I know it was memed at the time, but did his arrest and conviction win him the criminal vote?

At this point? Honestly yeah.

I haven't seen it discussed much, probably because Harris didn't lean into it, but the elephant in the room is that maybe America just doesn't want a woman president?

And another angel, a third, followed them, saying with a loud voice, “If anyone worships the beast and its image and receives a mark on his forehead or on his hand, he also will drink the wine of God's wrath, poured full strength into the cup of his anger, and he will be tormented with fire and sulfur in the presence of the holy angels and in the presence of the Lamb. And the smoke of their torment goes up forever and ever, and they have no rest, day or night, these worshipers of the beast and its image, and whoever receives the mark of its name.” Here is a call for the endurance of the saints, those who keep the commandments of God and their faith in Jesus.

I would not want to risk it.