Quantumfreakonomics
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User ID: 324
Quantumfreakonomics
8d ago
For those of you in it for the schadenfreude, I just saw my first news pundit who looked like she was about to cry (the black woman on CNN reporting live from Harris HQ).
Quantumfreakonomics
8d ago
I think the difference is that we don't have COVID forcing first-time-ever changes in election mechanics. Less of a chance for midnight ballots to show up and/or the probability of that is priced in.
That's the theory anyway.
Quantumfreakonomics
8d ago
It was trading at 25% ish before the election. Kamala's lead in Nate Silver's polling average was 1%, well within a single standard deviation.
Quantumfreakonomics
8d ago
Whenever I see the guys on TV doing the county-by-county comparisons in Pennsylvania, it looks pretty grim for Trump. Why are the PA markets at 80%? What am I missing?
Quantumfreakonomics
8d ago
Quantumfreakonomics
8d ago
Georgia looks good for Trump. North Carolina coming in a bit shaky. Not sure how people are updating so much.
Quantumfreakonomics
8d ago
Exit polls looking good for Trump in Georgia if Fox is to be believed. Blaxit seems to have materialized.
Quantumfreakonomics
8d ago
I’m unironically hyped as fuck to watch Steve Kornacki and John King work their magic on the big board tonight.
Quantumfreakonomics
8d ago
Depends. If they die before the official electoral college vote day in December, then I assume that a replacement candidate will be agreed upon (Joe Biden?) and will get elected instead. If it happens after the vote, then congress gets to decide what happens (20th amendment)
Quantumfreakonomics
9d ago
Joe Rogan never really regained his mainstream credibility after the early 2022 COVID hitjob. That level of media scrutiny changes people. It also made it so that the highest-ranking Democrat willing to go on his show was John Fetterman. On a personal level, it’s clear which side listens to him more. That sort of social camaraderie is fundamentally what drives human political behavior.
Quantumfreakonomics
9d ago
Catholic doctrine distinguishes between a sacrament which is illicit, and one which is invalid. An invalid sacrament is null and void, whereas one which is simply illicit is meerly wrong or sinful, while still retaining its essential function.
I wonder if a similar distinction is appropriate here. Its hard for me to see why votes cast in violation of minor provisions of state election code (such as early voting hours) should be voided. Voters can't be expected to understand the entireity of the state election code. A proper remedy would target the election officials responsible for the violation.
Of course, things like ballots cast by inelligible voters or in the name of others should be tossed out and rendered invalid.
Quantumfreakonomics
9d ago
This one actually does seem quite sketchy. Hmmm.
Quantumfreakonomics
9d ago
While I think this is stupid, anybody can print out a voter registration form off the internet whenever they want. Having physical forms available does not meaningfully change anything.
Quantumfreakonomics
9d ago
What was the "dem scheme to cheat"? Some clueless immigrant checking the wrong box?
Quantumfreakonomics
9d ago
I think it varies state-by-state. Here is what voter data Pennsylvania says you can get for $20.00:
PA Full Voter Export
As provided by 25 Pa.C.S. Section 1404(b)(1) (relating to Public Information Lists), as well as the SURE Regulations at 4 Pa. Code Section 184.14(b) (relating to Public Information Lists), the Department of State will provide the Full Voter Export List to requestors.
This version of the Public Information List is a full export of all voters in the county and contains the following fields: voter ID number, name, sex, date of birth, date registered, status (i.e., active or inactive), date status last changed, party, residential address, mailing address, polling place, date last voted, all districts in which the voter votes (i.e., congressional, legislative, school district, etc.), voter history, and date the voter’s record was last changed.
The cost of the Full Voter Export list is 20.00. Upon successful payment an email will be sent to the provided email address.
This data is current as of 11/04/2024 and will be refreshed on 11/11/2024 at midnight
Why can some election integrity guy on Twitter not post TODAY the cryptographic hash of a pseudorandom algorithm that he will use to pull a sample of registered Pennsylvania voters who cast a ballot in the 2024 election to manually check for dead people? This wouldn’t be like, super easy, but surely someone out of the 25% of the country who thinks Trump won in 2020 has both the skills and the will to do it.
Quantumfreakonomics
9d ago
Harris, because we'll get as much turnout from the living-impaired voter demographic as necessary to ensure she wins.
Granting the possibility that it would be easy to cast ballots in the name of dead people, wouldn’t this type of fraud be trivial to prove after the fact? Who voted in any given election is public information. Select a random cohort of voters, then check if they are still alive. Did anyone do this for 2020?
Quantumfreakonomics
10d ago
I finally got Robinhood event contracts working and put down a trivial amount of money on Harris. I find it hard to believe that after January 6, Trump is more popular than ever. I have a feeling that the movement reflects how pollsters are adjusting for their big misses in 2016 and 2020, not a change in sentiment on the ground.
Quantumfreakonomics
10d ago
The area I live is pretty split down the middle. It's quite nice actually. There is a general understanding that it's bad manners to bring up politics with people you don't know well.
Quantumfreakonomics
10d ago
Japanese all-you-can-eat barbecue changed my life. Gyu-Kaku has solved food. It's over.
Quantumfreakonomics
11d ago
Here are two wacky ideas for buying elections:
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Start a buisiness in an emerging, not-yet-regulated industry. Do all the textbook Silicon Valley valuation-pumping capital-raising stuff, but shove all the money into as many federal elections as possible. Max out the personal limit for every candidate's official campaign of one party, then find a surrogate to do the same for the other party. Hand pick one or two primary candidates in out-of-the-way races and pump their SuperPAC to the moon. Use your positioning as the politician-favored firm in the industry to raise even more money. Of course, the key is to only use investor capital for this, not customer accounts that you happen to have custody over. This is surprisingly cheap. You could do it for about $100 million.
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Buy a major social media company. Gut the employees and bring in your own people. Change the algorithm in clever ways that will shake out to favor ideas of your own preferred politics. Unfortunately, this is much more expensive, estimated to be about $40 billion even in favorable circumstances.
Quantumfreakonomics
11d ago
I am surprised that opposing the euthenasia of animals for questionable human health reasons is obviously read as having a right-wing valence. It was easy to see the angle for the ducks and cats thing in Ohio because it was immigrants (allegedly) doing it, but what the hell does Trump or Kamala have to do with squirrels?
Quantumfreakonomics
11d ago
Consider the possibility that a squirrel living indoors in close proximity to a raccoon would be more likely than wild squirrels to be infected.
Quantumfreakonomics
12d ago
I’m still not convinced that she lied about working at McDonald’s. I think it more likely that she lied on her resume about not working at McDonald’s. Of course, that shows not just ignorance, but shame at being associated with the working classes.
Quantumfreakonomics
12d ago
The point was made on the /r/slatestarcodex subreddit, but I'll repeat it here, that JD Vance got the content of the actual SSC article confused with the millions of "trans is a religion" takes, but remembered Scott's clever title wordplay.
It hits different when you can see and hear them. There is something primally activating about faces and voices.
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