Ponder
1yr ago
I found https://www.samhsa.gov/data/nsduh/national-releases there is a number in each years report like this:
Among adults aged 18 or older in 2021, 22.8% (or 57.8 million people) had any mental illness (AMI) in the past year.
In 2021, 5.5% of adults aged 18 or older (or 14.1 million people) had serious mental illness (SMI) in the past year.
I think this will be a decent way to see the trend. It is self-reported but there would be some consistency due to some of the same respondents self-reporting over multiple years.
Ponder
1yr ago
Like, can't you just replicate the methodology, update the plots, and see if the trend continues?
Yes, but you need other data to give it context to determine mental health trends. For instance:
- Are attempted suicides also rising?
- Are non-lethal drug overdoses also rising?
- Are more people seeking mental healthcare?
For instance, you could have a situation where deaths of despair remain stable but attempted suicides are trending higher indicating that mental health is getting worse. You can't tell from just the deaths of despair data.
Ponder
1yr ago
I have a gut feeling that mental health is declining in the United States. How would I go about quantifying and gathering data that would provide evidence for/against my gut feeling?
The problem I'm running into is that I don't think the data I need is publicly available. I was thinking I should look at trends in things like:
- Deaths of despair (drug overdoses, suicides) - this is the easiest data point to gather
- Percent of population with a mental health diagnosis, with further breakouts by type of diagnosis
- Number of people currently seeing a mental healthcare provider (per capita)
- % of total population that ever saw a mental healthcare provider
- Waitlist times for new clients seeking a mental healthcare provider
- Percent of population not seeing a mental healthcare provider, but that indicate via survey that they have symptoms of a mental health disorder.
Ponder
1yr ago
I've also seen this done where there is a public group to initially recruit members and a private group that exists to invite selected members to. The public group can stay active but just not schedule any further events until there is a need to grow the private group again. The reason given for starting the private group can be something like I'm not comfortable with how big the public events have gotten and I need a mechanism to limit attendance.
Ponder
1yr ago
Running
I'd highly recommend joining a local running group. It will help with motivation and you may make some new friends.
Ponder
1yr ago
At US accounting firms in entry-level roles the challenging part isn't the technical competence. Many people could reasonably succeed at the entry-level jobs with just the knowledge from the Intro to Intermediate Accounting courses (or the self-study equivalent).
The real challenges (in the US) are:
- Managing the workload during busy season - Many people work very long hours for extended stretches of time.
- Not getting bored with the repetitive nature of accounting - Most accounting work involves doing the similar tasks over and over. It is like an assembly line for office workers - the actual things you are doing is easy, but it is struggle to stay motivated.
- People Skills - accountants have a reputation for not being good with people skills and they can often skate by with poor social skills if they stay in lower-level positions.
When someone says you are doing good at an accounting firm it usually means something more like: You are reliable and pleasant to work with. The main things that will get you negative feedback in accounting are: not putting in long hours like your peers, missing deadlines, or blatantly not following procedures.
Furthermore, accountants frequently burn out from the accounting firm lifestyle and end up in private industry or government. The busy season gets to be a bit much as you get older and have different priorities like family. Your coworkers want you to stick around because it makes their life easier when things get busy.
Ponder
1yr ago
In addition to the other suggestions, I would add facilitating a grief from death support group. One may already exist and you could just attend. Even though you aren't technically volunteering I think it still fits the spirit of volunteering because you are helping other people process their grief just by showing up and being supportive. I think rationalist-adjacent thinkers can often add a valuable perspective to support groups if they are also personally impacted by the issue.
People who have been revived from an opioid overdose with Narcan have survived a life and death struggle. They too have often made peace with their own mortality. The fact that they survived does not make them more attractive, instead it makes them less attractive. It signals that they do not exercise good judgment and are unable to find a healthier way to cope with the problems in their life.
I feel like surviving the Hock will not have the attractiveness increasing benefits you are predicting. Instead, people will question why you feel the need to engage in such risky behavior with such a minimal payoff. If they deduce that your participation in the Hock was due to your inability to find healthy solutions to the struggles in your life then they may question what crazy thing you will do next time you face a struggle.
Instead of the Hock you would get more benefit from the socially acceptable forms of extreme fitness like: Ironman, CrossFit, triathlons, etc. They have the added benefit of having existing social structures where people can help you train and provide motivation. Technically, they are life and death struggles since people have died while participating in them.
Ponder
1yr ago
What do you think about the idea that in order to be morally worthy of a romantic relationship, you need to be willing and able to endure great suffering either for the greater good, or for your tribe, or for no reason at all?
If convicted felons can have romantic relationships that clearly indicates that moral worthiness is not a requirement for all romantic relationships.
Sometimes in marriage you have to endure suffering "till death due us part", but that is a special case where you voluntarily are taking a romantic relationship to a higher level. Even then there are socially acceptable reasons to end the suffering via divorce.
Women do this through pregnancy and childbearing
Many women in relationships do not ever have children. Men still enter relationships with women who are past child-bearing age.
Every man, now, needs to choose their own struggle.
No. You just need to live a lifestyle and have a personality that a single woman finds attractive and worthy of a relationship, and you have to initiate communication and make her aware of your attractive traits. The idea that you have to endure great suffering will be off-putting to most women. Based on other posts of yours here are some suggestions of things you could focus on:
- Become a local activist on a subject you are passionate about. This will cause you to connect with like-minded people who will find your passion attractive.
- Become a local expert on something and start a group where you are the leader sharing your expertise.
- Join a mental health support group where talking about your struggles is seen as an admirable quality. Additional benefits include: getting advice/support from people that struggle with similar issues and gaining additional perspective that allows you to see your struggles as more tractable than what some of the other people in the group are facing.
Ponder
1yr ago
I don't have much experience with increasing energy but occasionally I'll take an extended/delayed release caffeine pill and that has been giving me a good energy boost for 8-12 hours.
If you have lower testosterone you could try something like Cistanche or Tongkat Ali. I dabbled around with them and I felt my testosterone change, but the noticeable effects were pretty subtle. It has been a while since I tried them but I recall a mild increase in energy.
Ponder
1yr ago
The most important guidelines about nootropics/supplements/vitamins are:
- People are unique and respond differently due to factors like genetics, diet, and age.
- Effects can very greatly based on dose and how often you take something. Some things you have to take multiple times for the effects to build up to a noticeable level.
You can't just copy someone else's stack. You need to know what it is that you're trying to achieve. Then it become trial and error with substances and doses to find what works best for you. Making one change at a time is the best way to identify what works for you.
Some goals you could have might be: more energy, things that aid workouts, immune support, pain management, mood, better sleep, libido, skin, etc.
If you have a specific goal in mind I might be able to give you some recommendations on things to try.
Ponder
1yr ago
When you say you want to "talk about special interests" my question is--why not find a group dedicated to those special interests? And--what are these interests? Are there SSC meetups in your area? What about board game stores that have open play tables and "game night" gatherings? Maybe a comic book store that does anime screenings or similar? These are all places you're likely to find fellow aspies, but also normies who are accustomed to interacting with aspies.
I'm looking for something more like a mental health support group that is limited to people that self-identify as autistic. I want to focus more on discussing the challenges of navigating society's allistic norms. A place to vent about the frustrations of daily life. I have found general mental health support groups (or sharing circles) somewhat helpful but I feel like those spaces would be much more helpful to me if they were limited to high-functioning autistic adults. Many times the allistic attendees are happy with platitudes and just want to feel the emotional support of the group. I am looking for a space that is more blunt and focused on evidence-based thinking. I want to be able to have deep conversations about the issues that impact autistic people.
When I read things here or on SSC I often become interested in them, so I don't necessarily want to focus just on my current special interests. I'm looking for a space where people would be interested in discussing random topics that they find interesting and this could perhaps cause other people to become interested in those topics. I don't want a space where people stick to the safe and popular topics (unless they are interested in discussing them in a deeper or unconventional way).
I'd like a space where I can interact with other humans without following the usual rules for interacting with other humans.
Yes, I'd like a space where people who are bad with body language are comfortable. Where the focus is on the information being communicated and not on the mannerisms of the speaker. Where people are more open-minded than usual. Where the norms of communication feel more comfortable to people on the spectrum. It is exhausting to always have to adapt to allistic norms and frustrating when I constantly fail due to giving off the wrong body language. Instead of autistic masking all the time I want to find a space that is limited to people who identify as autistic.
what is the final outcome you're looking for here?
I'm looking for aspie group therapy, but also a group that does more than that. Ideally, it would be a group that has group therapy sessions (or sharing circles) but also has other events like book clubs/discussion groups and social events.
Ponder
1yr ago
Do you want to find other self-identified high-functioning autists?
Yes, that is exactly what I'm looking for. People that identify that way and are able to successfully live independently without a parent/guardian.
The actual diagnosis is not important. I'm mostly looking for people who would be comfortable discussing the challenges they face navigating society's allistic norms. Also, the people I'm looking for would have some trouble with understanding/using body language.
Ponder
1yr ago
I live in a medium sized city and I’ve been unable to find some type of adult high-functioning autism peer support group. I have seen these groups in larger cities, but they are too far away. The reason I was looking for a group is because I’m trying to connect with other people on the autism spectrum, but I have trouble finding them IRL. I think it would benefit me to have a space where I can reduce my autistic masking and talk about special interests.
I was thinking about trying to start a group in my city as I think there is a demand for such a group. Running a group and managing social situations gives me anxiety so I don’t know if I could do it alone.
- Do you have any ideas on how I could find other high-functioning autistic adults in my area?
- If I did try to start some type of autism support group do you have any advice or ideas on how to go about it?
- Is there a specific platform you would recommend?
- What would you do to resolve conflicts among people in the group?
- How far would you go in trying to accommodate everyone’s unique needs?
- What type of events might be successful in the group?
Ponder
1yr ago
From Zvi's Elephant in the Brain Review:
Choosing the best policies is not what most politics is mostly about. Politics is mostly about being in coalitions and showing loyalty to that coalition. In many times and places, members of the political outgroup are not taken kindly to, so one needs to show loyalty to the ingroup and its political viewpoints.
That doesn’t mean politics isn’t ultimately largely about policy. These coalitions involve many actors who do care deeply about certain policies, often out of narrow self-interest but also often as genuine do-rights. The policy wonks and idealists are real, and views on issues often do shift for the right reasons, not only the wrong ones. We all understand that a politics completely about alliances would result in the rapid collapse of the republic, with devastating consequences for almost everyone.
And
You should do the same actions you see, because they have hidden social motives and purposes, and people will punish you for acting differently even if they don’t know why acting differently might be bad here.
This helps explain DiAngelo's observations. Everyone is mostly disincentivized from going on a journey of self-reflection because then they would uncover issues and this would conflict with their goal (which they may not even be consciously aware of) of fitting in with their political ingroup.
I also think what DiAngelo is pointing out can often be generalized as something like:
- There is certain knowledge that you can't fully understand without having personality experienced it. Like riding a bicycle or living life with a disability.
- It is often disadvantageous to admit that you aren't fully knowledgeable about a topic.
- For coalition building it is also often disadvantageous to admit things are nuanced and human nature is messy.
- In the political coalition the people designing the policy aren't always personally impacted by that specific policy.
- The policies are designed based on a model built with missing knowledge and assumptions about what those impacted by the policy would want. The mental modeling of the policy is further complicated by the hidden agenda of the policy advocates: looking good in the eyes of the political ingroup.
Ultimately, you then end up with policy and activism that is misaligned with what those impacted by the policy really want.
Ponder
1yr ago
If you stay outside of the US for too long then there is a chance the local politics of your new home may start to negatively impact your mental health. There is political disfunction in many places so you may only be trading on cause of negative mental health for another. Additionally, US politics is often a trendy topic in foreign countries. If you socialize with the locals they may be interested in your thoughts on US politics. It would still be better than being in the US though because foreigners are far less vested in the outcome and can do very little to influence it.
I like your strategy of avoiding news and social media. Maybe just extend your strategy to avoid people (especially ones that bring up politics) for a while. You don't really have to travel anywhere to do that. Just do all your shopping online and only leave the house to go to secluded spots in nature.
Ponder
1yr ago
That's very interesting, and I suspect this effect is strongest with psychedelics. I was able to achieve this effect to a lesser extent with an anti-anxiety drug. Listening to the song can bring me closer to the anti-anxiety effect than I can normally reach sober.
2 other interesting observations I had about this effect:
- Just thinking about the song can sometimes cause me to recall the anti-anxiety mood without needing to actually listen to the song.
- One time I was able to imbue a song with a powerful realization when listening to that song on an anti-anxiety drug. Now every time I hear the song I also recall the realization:
The song was about deciding what paths in life to take and I happened to recall the HPMOR quote when listening to it:
You couldn't leave your home planet while it still contained a place like Azkaban.
You had to stay and fight.
Now the song and that quote are linked in my memory. It motivates me to fight against the salient injustices in today's world.
Ponder
1yr ago
I recently read a comment on reddit:
There is a phenomenon called mood-dependent memory that everyone experiences. It's the facilitation of accessing memories when your mood at retrieval is the same as your mood was at encoding. I'm sure you have had different memories flood in when you are in heightened states of mood before. When you get angry, you have memories pop up from other times you are angry. When you are happy, you have memories come in from other times you were happy. The reason for that is that when you form memories, your brain is not only encoding the basal level visual and auditory data. It's also encoding the emotional data in other brain regions, like the insula, insular cortex, and amygdala. When memories are stored, these neuronal connections are a formed that connect these brain regions.
I also heard someone say something along the lines of:
When I’m high I listen to music. When I’m sober listening to that same music it can put me in a better mood than usual.
In the first quote a mood is helping retrieve memories encoded with the same mood. In the second quote the music is helping retrieve the mood of a different instance of listening to the same music.
Where can I read more about the concrete details behind this phenomenon?
Is there a way to reliably trigger recall of a specific memory that matches your current mood?
Could you use psychoactive mood boosting substances to generate positive memories where music is playing in the background then use that same music to retrieve the enhanced mood when sober?
Ponder
1yr ago
I usually try to get them to think of things from a perspective that they haven't considered. My friends aren't familiar with many rationalist-adjacent concepts so I can sometimes share a brief summary of a lesson or concept that might be applicable to their situation and is new information to them.
Generally, I try to get people to clarify their own thinking instead of giving a direct solution. I really like the Socratic Ducking Approach
- Counter vagueness. Ask for specific examples whenever they talk about a general problem. Probe for details whenever they gloss over part of the problem, or start simplifying to fit everything into a narrative.
- Draw out their experience. Try to get them to remember times they’ve solved a similar problem, or encourage reference class hopping (if they’re thinking of their problem as being all about social anxiety, see if they view things differently when they think about parties versus small group conversations). In general, help them gather useful data from the past, so that they can see patterns and causal relationships as clearly as possible.
- Map out the parts of the problem. If you spot implications or assumptions, ask questions that take those implications or assumptions as true, and see if you can draw your partner toward a new insight. Try breadth-first searches before diving deep into any one part of the problem—can your partner identify their key bottleneck?
Ponder
1yr ago
that term really bugs me
It makes me feel kind of uneasy using it, but I think it has explanatory and predictive power. An economist knows people don’t view the world the same way they do. However, in order to explain human behavior you need to dig deeper than a person did something because they like it. Sometimes you even need to uncover hidden subconscious motivations. Models and language that view things as an unattached outsider can help achieve truth-seeking goals.
The behavior still exists whether we explain it in politically incorrect terms or in platitudes and flowery language. A woman might say, “I don’t want to be in a relationship with that guy because he is fun but he smokes too much pot and doesn’t have career ambitions”. Saying his relationship market value is not high enough expresses the same sentiment.
I think the real reason SMV and the related terminology became so popular among disaffected men is because it provides a much more direct and actionable explanation for how they can attract women. Instead of things being vague and opaque the language puts things into blunt terms. Women rank their choice of possible mates by some value system and generally traits x/y/z (such as confidence, physical fitness, social skills) are highly valued in their ranking system. The things they value in initial attraction can differ from what they value in a long-term partner. This explains why some men get a lot of attention on dating apps and others get very little/none. If you want more attention then signal more of traits x/y/z.
Ponder
1yr ago
San Francisco is among the urban centers that had unprecedented population declines during this time. From 2020 to 2021, the S.F. population fell to its lowest level since 2010, erasing a decade worth of population growth in a single year. Similar changes occurred in large cities across the country. New York, Washington, D.C., and Boston each saw outsize outmigration during this time.
Source: https://www.sfchronicle.com/projects/2023/maps-migration/
Some people aren't accepting worse housing they just simply move instead of waiting for conditions to improve. This migration then impacts politics because people bring their political beliefs with them, often causing shifts in the political climate of their new location.
Ponder
1yr ago
Even when you’re in your prime you still have competition. If the competition is wearing more revealing outfits and using filters to improve their photos then you too must do those things to maintain your relative popularity among your competition. Of course, that assumes those preferences are the actual preferences for many men. If men really enjoy more modest women then dressing in a more revealing way would decrease your marketplace competitiveness.
So in the case of the trends you are talking about I think women are perceiving that the behaviors in question improve their sexual marketplace competitiveness. I agree with you that it is totally unnecessary and pointless for young women so maybe women doing this have misjudged the true preferences of the marketplace.
Ponder
1yr ago
That link shows mortgage rates going from 1500 (approx) in 2020 to 2500+ in 2023, while in the same time frame wages rose from 45k (approx) to 48k (approx). In order to restore affordability some combination of the following would have to happen:
- Home prices fall
- Mortgage rates fall
- Wages rise faster than home prices
So when you say you don't think that home ownership won't remain unaffordable for long how do you think the affordability will be restored and how long will that take to happen?
Ponder
1yr ago
I’ve been seeing posts on social media about unaffordable the housing market has become (in terms of home price to income ratio). Many people who don’t already own a home are locked out of the home ownership market because the monthly mortgage payment and down payment required has increased a lot faster than the median wage since 2020.
What impacts will unaffordable housing have on politics? Do you think we might see a shift from identity-based politics to politics more focused on economic inequality?
Interesting, thanks for sharing.
I think a good data point for determining if despair is rising would be to look at attempted suicides.
I found a Polish study, it says (based on data from General Police Headquarters of Poland)
I haven't found good US data but I think this is an interesting angle to explore.
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