Pasha
Defend Kebab
No bio...
User ID: 481
Pasha
Defend Kebab
1mo ago
All I can think is if such American workplace norms actually take off in East Asia they will all disappear off the face of the planet in 1.5 generations max.
Pasha
Defend Kebab
2mo ago
Functional programming principles make UI development far easier
Can you explain
Pasha
Defend Kebab
2mo ago
Having any drones in the air makes it quite difficult to detect if a hostile drone is in the air I suppose.
Pasha
Defend Kebab
2mo ago
Nice list! My parents recall that I was an exceptionally awful baby and cried basically non-stop. So I am not very hyped for what is to come
Pasha
Defend Kebab
2mo ago
Life announcement: I am going to become a father! (Typical caveats, if medically everything goes well etc)
It wasn’t planned, but we would probably try in 1-2 years with my partner anyway so it wasn’t an unpleasant surprise either.
Still a bit early so we haven’t told anyone outside of close family. Really weird to keep interacting with friends as if everything is normal and we are all ultimately careless young adults.
So dump on me any advise you can think of!
Pasha
Defend Kebab
2mo ago
Safari + Perplexity.
Safari is simply because it works great on the iPhone and I like the syncing functions enough to endure the somewhat worse desktop browsing experience.
I am surprised nobody mentioned perplexity actually. It works great for a certain type of query especially with the pro mode enabled.
Pasha
Defend Kebab
2mo ago
Stop worrying. A baby doesn't need a big house. Having an extra room won't be an advantage at all until the child is a few years older.
It is actually an advantage if the grandparents are willing to stay and help with the baby
Pasha
Defend Kebab
2mo ago
Turkey once in a while ends up with pretty good male basketball teams and they are always almost entirely manned by people who (themselves or their families) emigrated sometime in the last ~150 years from western balkans.
Yugoslavia had a very good basketball tradition as well so maybe some of this is simply good sports education. But comparing the physical attributes of your average Anatolian to Bosniak immigrant, it’s not difficult to draw some conclusions.
Pasha
Defend Kebab
2mo ago
Have you considered that the problem is simply low human capital and an elite culture that developed around exploiting the low human capital through low margin extraction?
Pasha
Defend Kebab
2mo ago
I will free-form list my thoughts:
The current Ukrainian retreats do look more like a rout than an orderly retreat, and there is talk of quite a lot of operational chaos in Ukrainian command at the moment. Pro-Russian opinion sources are definitely very gleeful in a way I haven't seen since the well advertised Ukrainian offensive imploded with massive casualties. In a couple days we will get a better view into how much of this is true.
Ultimately it is very difficult to predict anything about the future of this war (without clowning yourself) without a good insight into the casualty rates of both sides and Russia's military production/import ramp-ups.
I suspect that Ukraine is actually facing a low ceiling in its overall conscription capacity. I base my suspicion on increasingly brutal videos coming out for months where conscription officers are beating up men unconscious to drag them to the barracks or having to fight a large community resistance. We simply don't know how many eligible Ukrainian men are even left in the country at this point.
I suspect that Russia is having some problems ramping up and adapting its military production. I base my suspicion on its constant reliance on North Korean/Iranian weapons imports and inability to scale up precision bombing campaigns to truly devastating sizes and the fact that they appointed basically a logistics czar as the Minister of Defense after spending years failing to adapt their hardware to the battlefield conditions.
I still expect that a Ukrainian front collapse is very much possible although I am impressed by how long they held out. They have relied heavily on "ideologically motivated" brigades (other words might apply), a general manpower advantage over the lean professional pre-war Russian army, and Russia's slow adaptation to the drone/precision-guided dominated war. Those troops are dead, Russian military recruitment seems to have equalized things, and Russians more or less adapted to these technologies and even gained an upper hand. All these observations support the theory that Kursk offensive has been a failed Hail Mary attempt to trigger some black swan event through forcing a massive error from the Russian command.
I think anyone who still word-cells "this is how Ukraine is actually winning" theories are basically delusional or worse. The war perhaps developed as a win for the NATO command (debatable imo), but Ukraine is a dead country busy with auto-cannibalization in the hands of a desperate leadership.
Pasha
Defend Kebab
2mo ago
They have both been dead for about 50 years now so that might be difficult.
Pasha
Defend Kebab
2mo ago
Skipping ropes is pretty great. Or get a rowing machine/use the one at your gym. Fighting sports (even the ones that look relatively static like BJJ) are extremely stamina demanding and you improve quickly.
Pasha
Defend Kebab
2mo ago
then focusing really intently on how my own head and body feel afterwards
What does this mean in practice?
Pasha
Defend Kebab
3mo ago
Motte loves to talk about the things women (even relatively smart introspective women) don’t get about men psychology and dating.
Well, what are some things even the most insightful men don’t get about female psychology and dating?
Pasha
Defend Kebab
3mo ago
Japan winning a gold medal in breakdancing is somehow more hilarious than breakdancing in olympics.
Pasha
Defend Kebab
3mo ago
I didn’t expect almost every single girl to be Asian. I guess it’s just not something Australians do much and Eastern Europe is too far away.
Pasha
Defend Kebab
3mo ago
Today is still better than tomorrow. I have very low confidence that the US can really “win” in a war against Iran if winning is defined as occupying Tehran and installing a new regime. But they can totally break the country until Israel doesn’t have to worry about it just like how it doesn’t worry about Saddam or Syria anymore. Albeit at a very very high cost. To the US.
Perhaps it’s a technology thing. Declarations of war made more sense when war involved marching 250k men armies in fields or packing 5M men in trains towards the enemy. It’s really not clear when a “war” starts when you can chuck hypersonic missiles at some select targets once in a while
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