Outlaw83
18d ago
I'll bet you a Trading Spaces dollar right now that Elon Musk is alive and well when Kamala leaves the Oval Office, whether it's 2029 or 2033.
Outlaw83
18d ago
There has been noticing, if you wanted to notice.
There was a recent poll showing Trump only up by 5 in Kansas, in the polling no matter the result Kamala has been consistently doing better among white voters than even Biden, and in general, the Blue Wall state have been holding up better than Arizona, Nevada, and Georgia.
Now, I, a party hack social democratic Democrat don't actually think Kamala is up by 3. But, if it's off by let's say 150% of Selzer's worst result ever in the past basically 20 years - 5 points. So, let's say 7.5 points.
A Trump +4.5 in Iowa would be disastrous., as personally in a busy election-related Discord, Trump +5 was our hope for the poll.
Outlaw83
29d ago
I worked at a grocery store a couple of summers after you mention. I don't remember anybodies name who worked there, I have no paychecks, it's unlikely I have my tax records, there are no photos of me working there, and probably the only reason the supermarket would be able to have records of me is it's part of a giant corporate chain, not a franchisee.
Throw things back another 20 years and throw in the fact it's a franchisee, I have zero doubt Kamala could've worked there a few shifts every week and she has no real records.
Outlaw83
1mo ago
You can have your own views on the Republican bench, and I'll say as a Democrat, in theory, the GOP has plenty of possible statewide elected officials.
But just in the swing states, the Democrat's will have Rueben Gallego, Roy Cooper, Josh Shapiro, Gretchen Whitmer, Josh Stein and that's not getting into somebody like Wes Moore in Maryland. Now, I'm sure you likely don't like anybody I Just listed but those people are all statewide elected officials who have won or in the case of Gallego, will have won solidly in swing states.
Outlaw83
1mo ago
Speaking as a left-leaning social democrat who dislikes all the Republican judges for obvious reaosns, Gorsuch is the only one who actually seemingly has an identifiable philosophy ala Scalia (except actually better) that I can at least respect, even though I think it's personally terrible. Maybe Thomas did 20 years ago, but he's fallen into a FOX News brained duo alongside Alito for basically the entirety of the Trump era.
Outlaw83
1mo ago
There's differing interest in pursuing the stolen car with no other info and the 7-11 robbery where there's video, not for political, but because nobody wants to actually work hard reasons.
Outlaw83
1mo ago
There's literally a whole society of conservative lawyers. There are indeed plenty of Federalist Society lawyers out there. They likely didn't take the case for the same reason there were people in Trump's White House telling him he lost the election.
Beyond that, the main reason it seems like Trump has had issues keeping good lawyers pre-President is just like in the rest of his business dealings, he's terrible at actually paying people.
Outlaw83
1mo ago
It was easier to convict J6 people for the same reason it's easier to convict people who then livestream talking about how they just held up a liquor store.
Outlaw83
1mo ago
Easier mail-in voting + COVID meaning there was literally nothing to do except get sucked into politics.
Outlaw83
1mo ago
Why wasn't the 2022 Wisconsin Senate race rigged? Why weren't more House races in close districts rigged when the GOP only won by 4 seats? Hell, why didn't they rig the 2018 Florida Governor race? It's weird how we're only successful at rigging some of the time, when in other countries, with actual governments that rig elections (that many of the people who are very worried about rigging in American elections prefer to the American govenrment) are always successful.
Outlaw83
1mo ago
If it was truly a bipartisan feeling, then election denying GOP Secretary of State candidates would've done a lot better in 2022.
"Elections are crap" may be a feeling that people get if they talk about long lines and so on, but no, the feeling one party is stealing elections is only among a group of one party, seen by their nominees and so on. Yes, I know, there's one weird poll showing some large amount of Democrat's think the Russians did shady stuff. Yet, there were no candidates in 2018, 2020, or 2022 that ran in any major way that Trump was not the legitimate elected President, by the current rules.
Outlaw83
1mo ago
I think PR is preferable, but people are weird about having their own congressperson, so it'd be a tough sell.
From what I've seen, there's complaining in the UK and Canada, but nothing to the level of the wacky districts on both sides here.
Outlaw83
1mo ago
If there was anything close to Civil Rights-era issues, there'd be evidence from J6 people that there were actually innocent people prosecuted and convicted of crimes they didn't commit. The usual issues people have is harsh sentences and that the criminal justice system was unfair to them.
In which case I say, welcome to America. Enjoy your stay.
The problem was all the J6 people committed crimes. Want to not go to jail? Don't commit crimes on video with your face easily visible so much so that random people on Twitter can figure out who you are and report you to the police.
So, the issue isn't the juries. The problem is let's say, a third of the population think what people did on J6 wasn't a crime, regardless of the very clear law on the books. OTOH, the reason the Disrupt protest arrests didn't work out is most of what they were charge is far more vague than basically, "don't do anything the government like on direct government property."
Outlaw83
1mo ago
Yes, if you have a good lawyer and good argument, it would've gotten past one of the dozens of judges, including Trump-appointed ones. One or two, OK, a grand left-wing conspiracy. But, every single election lawsuit failed because there was nothing there when it came to actual evidence, as opposed to some very well-made strings on cork board.
Again, why if the elections were so obviously stolen in 2020, is Kari Lake the only person to say her election was stolen in 2022? Even in states where no changes to the law were made. Did the Democrat's not steal them this time, after stealing them in 2020?
Outlaw83
1mo ago
I mean, other countries manage to pull it off. Like, I'm sure people in the UK have some issues, but there's not the widespread open complaining that happens in the US and nowhere the amount of obviously gerrymandered districts. I'll even say, if the GOP gets 49.5% of the vote and get 52.5% of the seats, that's not something as a partisan Democrat I think is the end of the world.
The issue is places like the recent Wisconsin state legislature, where the Republicans won 44% of the vote and got 66% of the seats. By the same measure, in 2022 in the Nevada legislature, the Democrat's won 41% of the vote but have a 2/3 majority as well.
I don't think there's a "perfect" fix, but there's ways to do it better than we do.
Outlaw83
1mo ago
As a partisan Democrat, if we can rig things so easily, I've always wondered why we didn't say, rig things in the very close Wisconsin Senate race in 2022 if we obviously rigged it for Biden in 2020 or why didn't we keep rigging things for Gillum and Nelson. Or did the rigging only start after 2016? Because if so, even then, it might've been smart to rig a few more Senate races so we likely weren't going to lose the Senate even if Kamala wins.
Outlaw83
1mo ago
There's already a law against non-citizens voting. I'd also vote against a law if one was offered that said, "let's make murder really illegal."
Outlaw83
1mo ago
Candidates in 2022 managed to pull it off basically overnight, going for claims about how the election was going to be stolen from them, but all of them except Kari Lake managed to basically put forward standard concession statements and everybody seems to accept those elections, despite no changes being made in most states. So why are those elections different? Perhaps it's not the evidence, then.
Outlaw83
1mo ago
It's very interesting how the belief in meritocracy falls away when advocating for Low Human Capital beliefs like election denial. Why can't people who think Biden stole the election live by the same laws I do, when it comes to civil lawsuits? If you can't prove standing, either you have a terrible case or a terrible lawyer.
Outlaw83
1mo ago
I'll note every single Republican statewide 2022 candidate who talked up there being issues with the election and how they were going to steal it all put forth the usual concession speeches or statements on Election Night, outside of Kari Lake. Even guys like Mastriano, who ran the most 'stolen election' centered race. Even in states that were under Democratic control. So what happened to the great Democratic machine to steal elections if it was so obvious in 2020, but only one candidate think it happened in 2022?
Outlaw83
1mo ago
As you can see from the below responses, there is no reaction that people who will accept other than their admittance they're trying to steal it, despite no actual evidence of widespread fraud or anything close to it. Or I guess, letting every nut be with zero evidence, but lots of claims equal to actual evidence because they agree with the nut that it was bad Joe Biden is President.
The good news is, as seen in the 2022 midterms, is the median voter in purple states find these argument completely "weird" and are happy to vote against people in the important governmental positions so them having any sort of power that may effect the Presidential election.
Yes, 30-35% of the country will continue to be reactionaries who want the clock to be turned back, whether it's 2004 or 1904, but that's always been true. It's slightly worse that as opposed to past periods, they're all in the same party, but this is not a historical shift. Conservatives have basically thought every win since Clinton, and by some measures, JFK, was basically illegitimate, it just used to be the purview of talk show hosts and dog whistling as opposed to open statements.
Outlaw83
1mo ago
The problem with Southern whites wanting to venerate a lie about Robert E. Lee is there are in fact, plenty of Southern white people to be proud of from the time of the Civil War, except of course, most of them didn't fight on the side of the slavers in a war to perpetuate that practice. Which goes against the whole idea that the South isn't allowed to have Southern heroes.
The reality is you can still attempt to defend Robert E. Lee. You just have to defend the actual Robert E. Lee, not the one that existed in the mind of the Dunning School
Now, I know the response to do this is something like, "well, MLK Jr. cheated on his wife" or whatever. But the problem, is most left-leaning people are happy to either say that something like their personal foibles is widely outranked by what they did in their larger life (ie. MLK) or part of their record is a stain that should be criticized (ie. FDR w/ internment), but there's a difference to most people of the worst of left-leaning heroes and the worst y'know, defending slavery.
The reality for neo-Confederates is outside of the whole fighting to defend slavery, most of the Southern leadership during the Civil War that is venerated just didn't...have much to cheer for beyond that. Lee wasn't even a good general.
Outlaw83
1mo ago
I mean, we're probably not going to agree, but in recent years, when it comes to things that actually have salience to the population, as opposed to a salience among cultural conservatives, it's the Republican party that are "betraying normal voters" via excessive abortion bans, as seen by those bans losing in any referendum, even in deep red states like Kentucky.
But, there's also a categorical difference on what a "normal American" is, since your "normal" seems to be opposed to any liberal cultural values, when that's close to 40% of the country at a minimum, up to a strong majority on some issues.
Like, the median American is basically a woman who went to college for a year or two to get a associate's in medical transcription who works at a doctor's office, is pro-choice, pro-gay marriage, mildly pro-transgender rights but doesn't really care, thinks the border is an issue but also broadly pro-DREAM Act, wants more gun control but doesn't want all guns banned, thinks the cops have issues but we shouldn't defund them, and so forth, and all of that would likely be considered "pushing a cultural agenda on normal American's" to conservatives.
Yes, among actual voters, sure.
But, Republican's voted against various pro-birth control bills on both the state and local level.
Then, you've got members of The Heritage Foundation, who wrote Project 2025 talking about returning consequentiality to sex - https://x.com/Heritage/status/1662534135762624520
Project 2025 also says the morning after bill is an abortion bill and the coverage of it should be eliminated and there's also been talk about the Comstock Act.
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