NewCharlesInCharge
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User ID: 89
NewCharlesInCharge
2mo ago
It’s basically the same play they ran with Biden. Keep appearances minimal and roll the dice that media can plausibly not talk about how he’s losing his marbles until after the election.
At some point they figured that’s not going to work and so engineered the debate to expose him, and even then it nearly didn’t work to get a new candidate.
We’ve got a couple of months for Kamala to not implode. She’s apparently a poor manager with high turnover, has plentiful examples of incompetent extemporaneous speaking, and has already floated policy ideas unpopular enough that they’re walking them back.
There’s plenty of opportunity there.
We also don’t know what the Republicans might be holding back. Last time there was a coordinated attempt to deny them their October surprise, but I don’t know that the 51 intelligence officials trick will work a second time.
NewCharlesInCharge
2mo ago
The media will fact check Trump for stating opinions that they don’t like.
Walz gets a free pass. There’s about half a dozen of his previous colleagues in the military that have come out against him, but a viewer of the mainstream media wouldn’t know it. The media has decided that they’re not going to allow swiftboating, whether legitimate or not.
NewCharlesInCharge
2mo ago
Or they have a quota for article length and needed to pad it out.
This is a very common thing you encounter where the first 3-5 chapters of some nonfiction book are compelling and directly relevant to the author’s main thesis. Then the rest of the book is vaguely related to the thesis, mostly it’s other things the author has studied and can write competently about.
Publishers are reticent to put an 80 page book on the shelves even if that’s the best version of the book the author can produce.
NewCharlesInCharge
3mo ago
Why couldn’t you just take a film picture of the AI generated scene? There’s no depth to film, a flat image should be indistinguishable from the real thing.
35mm has a grain density that works out to about 5.6K, so if you have an 8K monitor then you shouldn’t be able to detect pixelization.
NewCharlesInCharge
3mo ago
Unless you're a spy, or someone valuable enough to your government that China could get concessions from treating you like one, there's very little risk posed by the Chinese government. There are currently three Americans that America itself considers wrongfully imprisoned in China.
Looks like about 2.5 million Americans visit China each year.
It's a similar risk for Chinese nationals visiting the West. If you're the Huawei heiress then maybe you should be careful. If you're a nobody then it's very unlikely the state will visit trumped up charges upon you.
Actually if you're a professor the risk looks less trivial, there are a lot of cases of professors being prosecuted and found not guilty.
NewCharlesInCharge
3mo ago
There are barely any 'tech jobs' to speak of, you're definitely not getting hired by one of the big players if you're here.
Meta still hires remote and at most they'll knock 15% off of Bay Area comp.
NewCharlesInCharge
3mo ago
Most likely it’s an attempt to do in software what those fuzzy mic covers do physically, reducing the blown out sounds from things like p-sounds that are super aspirated.
But it’s probably someone’s side project and not close to perfect. I saw others posting they’ve heard the effect in other Spaces hosted on X.
NewCharlesInCharge
3mo ago
Maybe you only cut the ones without legible outputs.
NewCharlesInCharge
3mo ago
I think there's some epistemic room there to believe that Trump himself believed he saw an earlier forecast that included Alabama and that the media were being unfair to him. During the controversy he apparently tweeted out an undoctered map from some agency that did show impacts to Alabama.
I can think of examples coming from respectable lawyerly types that don't have so much room. For example, Rache Levine getting WPATH to drop age guidelines on "gender affirming care."
NewCharlesInCharge
3mo ago
The mainstream media is burning its credibility right at the point where it's becoming trivial to create completely believable fake images and videos of literally anything you want to depict.
NewCharlesInCharge
3mo ago
Panoramic photos of some rally she gave lately that easily gives a Trump rally a run for it's money.
If it's the same one I was thinking of, it was maybe 2,000 people in the crowd.
At the rally where Trump was shot, they were planning for 15,000 in ticket sales. They also had a big crowd milling around outside. This is very rural, an hour drive from the nearest city, the county itself is only about 190,000 people.
NewCharlesInCharge
3mo ago
The form also says for real property not to report your homestead.
My net worth is multi-million but on this form I think I'd only have about $500k of assets to report, most of that in the house I helped my mother to buy, and so which my name is on. I'm not landlording and haven't made any individual stock or option bets in awhile.
The form doesn't even require you to disclose cash or cash-like assets.
NewCharlesInCharge
3mo ago
If we didn't have police George Floyd would have likely been killed far earlier by one of the people he had wronged.
If there were no police, and a man pointed a gun at my pregnant wife to rob her, I would kill that man. Not even as a matter of immediate self defense, but as a preventative measure. I can't in good conscience risk his continued existence. Most of all for the safety of my family, but for others as well.
NewCharlesInCharge
3mo ago
The program is fine, using it to harass your political opponents is clearly not.
NewCharlesInCharge
3mo ago
A high school boys bathroom can’t even be trusted with paper towels. Someone was always clogging the sinks with them at my school.
NewCharlesInCharge
3mo ago
Kamala’s career intersected with a case like that as well: https://www.phoenixnewtimes.com/news/california-ag-wont-review-suicide-findings-in-bizarre-death-of-rebecca-zahau-6630223
Short summary, lady was found hanged using knots she had no business knowing, while her son was hospitalized after a suspicious fall, and a strange message scrawled on the wall.
NewCharlesInCharge
3mo ago
It's on Peacock.
NewCharlesInCharge
3mo ago
That source frames it as "officials alleged," it's not confirmation.
NewCharlesInCharge
3mo ago
I made a report to the postal service once, got back a form response, and nothing else happened. I think my report was probably better than average since I had the theft on video, though wasn't able to read the thief's license plate.
Here's the response I got in December of last year:
This is in response to your recent inquiry concerning suspected mail theft.
This Service Request XXXXXX has been forwarded and is currently being reviewed by the United States Postal Inspection Service (USPIS).
The Postal Inspection Service is the law enforcement of the United States Postal Service. Complaints alleging mail tampering or theft come under the exclusive jurisdiction of the Postal Inspection Service. This inquiry does not require you to contact either the Inspection Service or the Postal Service. A Postal Inspection Service representative will contact you if this inquiry requires further investigation.
Please note, information provided in a mail theft complaint and reviewed by the Inspection Service does not always result in a criminal investigation.
NewCharlesInCharge
3mo ago
In my case for awhile we had mailboxes being hit frequently, sometimes more than once a week. We also had a park a few blocks away used as a free shooting range a couple of times in the early morning hours.
We live in a wealthy neighborhood in a suburb of Seattle. My home is more than a couple million bucks and it’s not the nicest one around. Our cops are actually responsive and pretty good at tracking down criminals. But felonies are adjudicated at the county level, and the criminals know that unless they murder someone it’s not going to be taken all that seriously.
Even murders aren’t taken that seriously recently. A guy got killed when he confronted car prowlers in a mall parking lot. Prosecutors asked for 14 years, the judge handed out 12.5 year sentences, which certainly means less than 12.5 years: https://komonews.com/amp/news/local/men-who-murdered-victim-during-car-burglary-at-southcenter-mall-sentenced-to-prison-murder-stealing-cars-hyundai-stolen-vehicle-surveillance-video-king-pierce-counties-washington-tukwila
NewCharlesInCharge
3mo ago
Seattle nearly elected a police abolitionist as city attorney. The top two primary produced a police abolitionist who said she’d stop enforcing DUI laws and a moderate Republican. The Republican barely won.
NewCharlesInCharge
3mo ago
I used to hold similar views to you, that laws against recreational drugs were a massive injustice.
Then I saw what happened in cities where drugs were de facto, or in Portland’s case de jure, legalized. The externalities from junkies got worse, not better. Regular citizens have to deal with more theft, more random acts of violence, more derelict homeless camp eyesores.
Now I think keeping certain drugs illegal just makes pragmatic sense. If you’re a sensible enough drug user you’re very unlikely to be caught, but if you’re not it gives society a good tool to lock you up. Maybe the evidence of your theft or violence is shaky enough that you’ll be let off. But “we found drugs in your pants” is pretty rock solid, notwithstanding your protestations that they’re not your pants.
It’s essentially giving cops discretion to arrest people they believe are up to no good just from their appearance, with the extra check that they need some pretext for the stop and must actually find some drugs.
NewCharlesInCharge
3mo ago
Vance is weird because he’s grey tribe, his weirdness is just of a conservative Thielish RETVRN flavor than a liberal polyamorist flavor.
If Scott entered politics and became Kamala’s running mate then the Republicans would attack him for being a weirdo as well.
NewCharlesInCharge
3mo ago
A kink in this theory are all the debate conditions that Trump was made to agree to for the debate to even happen. No audience, mics to be cut when it’s not the speaker’s turn, etc. They appeared designed to get him to refuse to debate.
Those conditions ultimately were not a help for Biden, but I doubt the Biden team anticipated that. If they did, then how could they have not anticipated that Joe was going to go down kicking and screaming?
On the fake electors, I initially found this compelling, but not anymore. As far as I can tell the electors met, pledged their votes to Trump, and recorded this on paper on the appointed date. This was in anticipation that election results in their states could change, and if so there could be a problem if there were no elector votes recorded by the date specified in the Constitution.
There wasn’t a scheme to substitute these electors in place of the ones representing the state’s certified winner. On Jan 6th Trump’s ask of Pence was that he not certify the election, not that he count votes from the electors for Trump.
An alternate slate of electors also met and recorded their votes in Hawaii in 1968. Nixon was certified the winner, Kennedy’s electors met and recorded their votes anyway, and then later a recount went in Kennedy’s favor. Nixon, in his capacity as Vice President, counted the Kennedy electors from Hawaii.
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