I've run sportsbooks both legal and frontier and I'm a pretty big gambling prohibitionist in my day-to-day life. If you're a wise guy, you're toeing a very fine line (yaddayadda promo arbitrage, soft books etc bit more leeway but even then) where even if you've got an edge you're likely going to run into issues in the medium/long-term if you get accustomed to high stakes gambling. If you're on the fish side, it's far too accessible and risk of ruin is very high especially in this current economic moment where most people feel a near-obligation to gamble in order to advance their socioeconomic situation.
Mottizen
10d ago
It has done well but it hasn't exactly been 'belly button lint in exchange for untold riches' if you've jumped on board any time since like 2016.
Mottizen
22d ago
1/2 means you get half of your stake as winnings if you win, meaning it's roughly 66% to happen after the bookmaker's margin. Trump is currently the favorite to win the election.
Harris is favorite to win the popular vote but due to the US electoral system that is not the sole qualifier.
Mottizen
28d ago
And even beyond that, I genuinely believe that the median Democrat would be far more chill with having a gay son or lesbian daughter than a thot daughter trans child.
I've got an infant daughter right now and I'd much much prefer that she came out as a lesbian than transitioned. One's a lifetime of medical procedures and massively heightened suicide rate, plus has far more issues around reversability if it turns out to just be a phase.
Mottizen
2mo ago
My understanding of reproductive stats is that they tend to be skewed by those who are struggling to conceive tending to meticulously document every attempt, whilst those who are fecund it just happens.
I've got a 5 month old daughter and I know it happened within about 2-3 sessions without protection with my partner, but that's never entering the medical record whilst somebody in their 40s who's exhaustively logging and trying supplementation will be reflected in the research body
Mottizen
2mo ago
Surely the emergence of significant oil deposits across the Middle East which were largely unexplored during the second World War have to had played a part in how the region was handled.
Mottizen
2mo ago
for the most part, the politicians who allowed mass immigration into the US didn’t think it would change much at all, and in many cases significantly underestimated the demographic transformation that would follow.
Exactly. Whole thing looked good on a spreadsheet when you assume absolute fungibility of human stock but any consideration of second order effects or where more recent immigrants are coming from...
Mottizen
2mo ago
Exactly. Few people are denying that there was Holocausting present, but in a historical period in which random historical revisionism runs rampant it seems insane that there is only one singular line in the sand allowed for by the culture that is untouchable. Aztec apologia flies, but not this case.
Mottizen
2mo ago
Yeah. Just since the points of measure are arbitrary it's still an absolute distance that is being communicated whether you do so in Meters or Feet.
Mottizen
2mo ago
Still likely a correlation between being the feeblest and not surviving childhood, versus these days in which serious conditions are extended ad infinitum for no particular benefit to society.
Mottizen
2mo ago
Appealing to random niche cultural sex-worker and/or designated eunuch roles to establish historical precedent seems to be the most common.
Honestly surprising nobody's tried to recast the Catholic Priesthood as a third gender.
Mottizen
2mo ago
True but there's been plenty of opportunity to spend up if we'd wanted to buy first-hand.
Walk around your average baby store and it's amazing how much you can drop on a stroller and a bed.
Mottizen
2mo ago
Yeah I'm 6 months into fatherhood (and whilst there's a bunch of schooling etc. fees that I'm obviously not paying yet). My partner and I are reasonably frugal/happy to procure second-hand things from marketplace and I'd be surprised if my daughter has cost us more than a thousand or two so far. We've probably come out far ahead considering savings on stuff we'd normally be spending.
Mottizen
2mo ago
I don't think this is the entire picture, since there's also an incentive on the part of a man who 'knows how to play the game' to pose as a viable longterm prospect and then dip and/or incompatibilities are found during the trial period and it's donezo. I've seen in my friendgroup both men and women in their late twenties join dating apps with 0 meaningful relationship experience prior.
For most men the immediate response is crickets and zero interest (assuming introverted nerdy type) which then requires considerable personal development to grind through. For the women, the result tends to be getting played a few times and then pivoting hard to PVP mode or just opting out.
Mottizen
3mo ago
I feel like a lot of the benefits of this philosophy could be achieved by just pursuing less rigorous medical interventionism as opposed to out and out euthanasia. The issue with modern medicine is that, now that the pandora's box of super aggressive end of life care has been opened, it has proven difficult for medical systems to draw the line on what's a sensible amount of sunk cost to go into.
Mottizen
3mo ago
Not like he's going to meaningfully change his technique much at that age, especially when maximumweight Greco Roman isn't exactly the most sophisticated sport in the world (As somebody of similar size who does wrestle/grapple).
Mottizen
3mo ago
It is crazy how across the West that in the last decade or two it's just become increasingly normalized to have RPG Random Encounters with the insane/drugged.
Mottizen
3mo ago
he’s currently claiming that Harris isn’t actually black.
If you actually watch the interview Trump's claim was 'Harris chooses whether to emphasize her Indian heritage or African heritage depending on however the IdPol winds are blowing' not that she's literally not Black.
Mottizen
3mo ago
Some culture war issues like abortion still pivot around ethnicity/religiosity even if they're nominally Democrat voters.
Mottizen
3mo ago
Isn't this the forever-issue with importing votes as a left-wing party. Essentially everywhere outside the anglosphere is built on identity politics and culture that is far right compared to the prevailing Western Democracy. Any successful immigrant project will tend to pivot over time from 'I vote Democrat since they facilitate my immigration' to 'Got mine, now I'm culturally conservative'
Mottizen
3mo ago
I'd agree in one sense, but BAME is a grouping for a reason. Recent African immigrants might not all be Islamic, but it's still confusing what real utility they're offering when most of the UK's indigenous stock have their own grievances with the status quo.
Mottizen
3mo ago
It seems like nobody was aware of her being XY until the genetic test took place. I'd be very surprised if Algeria was just cool with her having gone through their entire womens' sport pathway if she'd been packing masculine equipment the entire time.
She undoubtedly gets a bit of an advantage from her hormonal profile compared to 'average woman', but practically everybody in the Olympics is going to have some degree of that going on. She's had a good-but-not-great amateur boxing career to this point with years in the ring, and the Italian woman quitting instantly to a woman with a 11% KO rate just doesn't seem at all logical unless there's literal hysteria going around here. I agree that trans athletes shouldn't be able to compete with women, but in this case I believe she's largely unaware of her own intersex status and the contest seems reasonably fair.
Also hilarious when people assume that Southeast Asians are more progressive than Westerners based on essentially 'The resort staff in a very narrow slice of Bali didn't say anything negative about my gay relationship, therefore progressive country'
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