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MotteInTheEye


				

				

				
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joined 2022 September 05 13:57:58 UTC
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User ID: 578

MotteInTheEye


				
				
				

				
0 followers   follows 0 users   joined 2022 September 05 13:57:58 UTC

					

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User ID: 578

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Indeed. I imagine that a teacher has a breakdown on this level once a week or so in this country.

Not sure that's fair to Brady, you could just as easily say that playing football at 43 was a low-odds gamble, and he won the Superbowl. The man clearly just decided to keep playing until results showed that he actually couldn't keep up the dominance any more. And the difference between him and the others is that there was little or no chance of his gamble throwing away the things he had already accomplished.

Most people in the private sector don't actually get Juneteenth off here, even though it is a recently added public holiday so that could change over time.

I would guess there are plenty of manly men who bird watch, but they are mostly not the ones who sit on the committees and run for president.

The Venn diagram overlap of the sort of people who administrate hobby groups and the sort of people who bird watch is not your most testosterone-fueled set.

It seems like what you are really asking is "why are people acting like this is solely an ethnic Jewish/Arab conflict when Egypt is at least partially cooperating with Israel against Gaza." Because all of your questions are easy things answer if ethnicity isn't the only lens you use to look at the conflict. Egypt and Israel would both rather not have this impoverished and violent population incorporated into or freely mingling with their own people, and they act accordingly.

When my Dad was 16 or 17 (on the eve of the first OPEC embargo), he worked for summer and bought an old Cadillac. Today, not only is no job you do at 17 going to pay you enough to buy a decent car, a 'decent car' (that you buy with parental support, even) is going to be a 2000s Camry or equivalent highly functional, probably Japanese or Korean vehicle designed for middle class parents like your mom and dad.

I don't think I understand this part of your comment. I think you could buy either a very functional but uncool car like you describe, or a cooler car requiring maintenance along the lines of the old Cadillac, for $5k or so, which seems pretty achievable for a conscientious teenager to earn in three months at post-pandemic entry-level wages.

I think you are right about the quality of the average Hollywood screenplay, but I don't think it's even correlated with the "sit down and write a whole script for this concept" skill of the individuals involved. What is required from a screenwriter to produce an excellent movie is the skill set to get an excellent script onto the screen through the gauntlet of executives, producers, directors, and actors who all have a stake in the final product, which your average fanfic writer would be completely incapable of. An LLM may or may not fare better.

Thanks for this, really interesting read. Like freemcflurry I'm wondering what you mean by attempting a coup, is there a likely mechanism or precedent for that in the last couple centuries?

For me at least, this is just a change within the last few months. Up until then my Facebook feed was exclusively activity of my friends, groups I had joined, and pages I had liked (even if it was stuff like "Bob liked a post in Nature Pics") and ads. Now it's probably 60% meme posts from random pages that I've never interacted with.

Oh, I've read that African billionaire thing a lot through secondary sources but I'm not on Twitter, what was the nature of the debunking?

For shipwrecks, the captain would certainly bear a lot of the responsibility. I don't know how rare captains getting murdered during shipwrecks was historically though.

Seems plausible enough to me, but I guess your point is that it's in tension with the overall progressive stance that suicides are helpless victims.

I hadn't realized that DeSantis is a Catholic so I will cede your characterization of him in particular as not living up to the ideals he professes in that regard. I think your insistence on using "true pro-lifers" to refer to the Catholic position is obnoxious but there's no point in an extended argument about a label.

He expanded the death penalty. True pro-lifers are against that.

I predict that support for abortion and support for the death penalty have a strong negative correlation. Do you predict the opposite or is there some other meaning to your claim?

I don't understand what the motivation behind attempts to have it scrubbed would be. Any enemy agents worth worrying about already have copies of it. So the only benefit of scrubbing it now would be making it harder for the public to find. Is there stuff in there that's just uncomfortable for the Pentagon to have widely known, or is it just an attempt to downplay the story by making the evidence harder to find?

it’s hard not to have a grudging affection someone who’s such an obstinate libertarian that even the other obstinate libertarians don’t want to hang out with him

I am on O'Toole's side about suburbs and cars, but I'm not sure it makes sense to call support for single family zoning more libertarian than opposing this. It seems clearly to be a measure of social control.

I guess you could make a case that in a consequentialist sense, single family zoning will result in more actual personal autonomy given the assumptions that relaxed zoning leads to density and density leads to a certain political climate. But at the end of the day I suspect almost everyone has some kind of story for how their proposed laws or regulations ultimately lead to more freedom.

It's not even satire, it's just run of the mill sarcasm which they dropped in the second half of the comment.

There is no secret sauce, they are the BEST.

Couldn't the secret sauce be that they have been using their model to facilitate their work longer and more effectively than anyone else? It would explain why it has accelerated so much over the past 6 months.

Speaking plainly also helps avoid people who are taken in updating on what their opponents believe based on a steelman/parody which may not represent them well.

On average, would men whose wives engage with Aella's content or women whose husbands engage with Aella's content feel more threatened by it? To me it seems obvious that it is the latter. And if so, the sample is inherently biased towards men who don't care what their wives think.

Almost definitionally none of us here can provide good tips for breaking free from Internet addictions. That said, something that has seemed fairly effective when I've used it is Focus Mode on Android phones. You can specify what apps you are and aren't allowed to use and it at least provides a roadblock that you have to consciously overcome if you want to relapse, without depriving you of any of your phone's functions that are actually useful to you.

Blitz is too slow for that, you need 6 uninterrupted minutes. You can start with blitz and work your way down to bullet which fits in a more reasonable 2 minutes.

Bullet chess is a pretty different game but it's a lot of fun because you can gamble on traps which would be clear blunders at higher time controls.

I'll register a prediction that 2 years from now we are in the middle of an extremely similar debate. Maybe that means I'm on your side but I think the overwhelming likelihood is that we are saying, "Yes, LLMs by themselves didn't create the singularity / fundamentally alter the world, but when you combine them with the latest revolutionary technique from OpenAI there's no doubt it will happen very soon."

Or alternatively, "LLMs are changing the world and it's just taking employment indicators etc. a while to catch up."

In any case, I doubt that the debate will feel settled in any way at that point.

I think they got much more widespread criticism than they expected and will quietly step away from the bowdlerized versions. I doubt they will fly off the shelves, so I don't predict that they will be unavailable for sale in a year, but I predict that the original versions will continue to be widely available.