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MiddleAgedMan

Hanging on in quiet desperation is the English way.

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joined 2022 September 05 14:45:27 UTC 

				
User ID: 600


				
				
				

			

		

	














	


		


			



	

		

			

			

				

					

						

							
						

						

							
							

								
MiddleAgedMan


								

								

								
								
								

								
							
					
 
				


				
Hanging on in quiet desperation is the English way.

				
				
				

				

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					joined 2022 September 05 14:45:27 UTC
				


				
					

					
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User ID: 600


					
					
					
				

			


					

						
					



		

	

 











			
			

			
			

			




	


		

			
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	 Hot Bump Top Bottom Old Controversial Comments
	



		

	






	

		
		

		
		
	

	

  







		

			
			
				Small-Scale Question Sunday for November 24, 2024
			
		

	

	

	

		
			

			

				

			

		

			


				

					
People pay an order of magnitude less attention to you than you think. Live your life and don't worry about what other people think.


				

				

						

							

								
							

						


						
					

				
			


			

	


			
			
				

			
		

	






		

			
			
				Small-Scale Question Sunday for November 3, 2024
			
		

	

	

	

		
			

			

				

			

		

			


				

					
What do I care, I'll be dead!


				

				

						

							

								
							

						


						
					

				
			


			

	


			
			
				

			
		

	






		

			
			
				Small-Scale Question Sunday for November 3, 2024
			
		

	

	

	

		
			

			

				

			

		

			


				

					
My kids will tell you that when daddy dies, just throw him in a ditch.


				

				

						

							

								
							

						


						
					

				
			


			

	


			
			
				

			
		

	






		

			
			
				Culture War Roundup for the week of October 28, 2024
			
		

	

	

	

		
			

			

				

			

		

			


				

					
It could be interpreted that way. Alternatively one could argue that the ability to make regular phone calls is a perquisite of working, and therefore if one does not work one would not receive the benefit. They're fairly functionally equivalent.


				

				

						

							

								
							

						


						
					

				
			


			

	


			
			
				

			
		

	






		

			
			
				Culture War Roundup for the week of October 28, 2024
			
		

	

	

	

		
			

			

				

			

		

			


				

					
I suppose the text itself is not particularly objectionable, merely unnecessary.


				

				

						

							

								
							

						


						
					

				
			


			

	


			
			
				

			
		

	






		

			
			
				Culture War Roundup for the week of October 28, 2024
			
		

	

	

	

		
			

			

				

			

		

			


				

					
They aren't actually forced to work. They may be granted certain privileges if they do work (along with the meager stipend) but no one is forcing them to work. That's the deliberately misleading part.


				

				

						

							

								
							

						


						
					

				
			


			

	


			
			
				

			
		

	






		

			
			
				Culture War Roundup for the week of October 28, 2024
			
		

	

	

	

		
			

			

				

			

		

			


				

					
I voted no on all propositions except 36, for which I enthusiastically voted yes. As always, the proposition titles are misleading and meant to misdirect voters. "Involuntary servitude" is of course meant to evoke images of slavery and chain gangs.  If that one passes, I am reliably informed that most of the prison jobs will go away due to lack of funding, leaving prisoners without any options to make money.


I entirely agree that 36 is largely seen as an obvious measure by the majority of Californians and will pass easily. I live in a mostly blue area and people who I've spoken with from all walks tend to agree - with the caveat that they're mostly men.


The entire proposition system is fairly useless as the legislature and courts just ignore or distort the results anyway.


				

				

						

							

								
							

						


						
					

				
			


			

	


			
			
				

			
		

	






		

			
			
				Small-Scale Question Sunday for October 13, 2024
			
		

	

	

	

		
			

			

				

			

		

			


				

					
In order to have a risk-free outcome you'd need to arbitrage against a different site that had better odds for Harris. Say for example the odds were 50/50 on site X. Then you could essentially bet infinite money on each site at no risk (assuming you are certain to get paid for winning!). You could freeroll Harris by betting Polymarket $100 Harris and X $100 Trump, giving you a guaranteed return of $250 if Harris wins (net +$50) or $200 if Trump wins (net 0). Or you could guarantee a few bucks either way by reducing your Polymarket Harris bet to $80, where the nets would be Harris +$20 or Trump +$20.


These situations can be massively profitable IF you are guaranteed to collect, there are not significant tax considerations, etc., etc. Accordingly they are pretty rare for things like sports betting. There are actually syndicates and other operations who do this all day every day by watching price differentials across markets.


				

				

						

							

								
							

						


						
					

				
			


			

	


			
			
				

			
		

	






		

			
			
				Friday Fun Thread for October 18, 2024
			
		

	

	

	

		
			

			

				

			

		

			


				

					
That would really bug me.


				

				

						

							

								
							

						


						
					

				
			


			

	


			
			
				

			
		

	






		

			
			
				Culture War Roundup for the week of October 14, 2024
			
		

	

	

	

		
			

			

				

			

		

			


				

					
An effective ad would be to simply show pictures of pregnant women at say 3m, 5m, 7m, 9m. That is a simple, visceral set of images that most people will be immediately familiar with and can instinctively compare.


				

				

						

							

								
							

						


						
					

				
			


			

	


			
			
				

			
		

	






		

			
			
				Culture War Roundup for the week of September 9, 2024
			
		

	

	

	

		
			

			

				

			

		

			


				

					
For my father's long-time job the differentials were 2x for Saturday work and 3x for Sunday or holiday work. In my previous federal government job (~30 years ago) there was a shift differential of 10% for second (16:00-00:00) or third (00:00-08:00) shifts. I worked second shift which was quite acceptable for a young single guy.


				

				

						

							

								
							

						


						
					

				
			


			

	


			
			
				

			
		

	






		

			
			
				Weekly NFL Thread: Week 2
			
		

	

	

	

		
			

			

				

			

		

			


				

					
(This is a good example of a personal bubble!)


In its simplest form, a survivor league for the NFL involves choosing one team per week which must win its game. If the team wins, you survive to the next week. The caveat is that you can only choose each team once for the entire season (I believe 18 weeks currently). There are several strategic considerations: how likely each team is to win in the current week; how often the team might be a good choice in future weeks; how popular you expect the choice to be; etc.  For a simple example if you have a team that is expected to win nearly all their games, and there are 1000 entrants in the contest, you'd want to save that team as long as possible for use in a situation where there are no other great options. Also regarding popularity if you have a team that say 50% of entries are likely to choose, then you almost never want to pick them because if they lose you've now eliminated half the field.


https://www.survivorgrid.com/ has a lot of this information in convenient format, the most valuable being the percentage picked for each team.


There are also several variants of survivor including picking a team to LOSE each week, having to pick 2 teams each week, potential reentries if you lose, and many more. It's an interesting way to gamble.


				

				

						

							

								
							

						


						
					

				
			


			

	


			
			
				

			
		

	






		

			
			
				Weekly NFL Thread: Week 2
			
		

	

	

	

		
			

			

				

			

		

			


				

					
Any survivor players? I'm in a small league (12/24 remaining) and a medium league (350/500 remaining). There are several decent candidates this week in the 6-7 point favorite range. I'm looking at Houston and Dallas, as both have minimal future value (although Dallas w13 vs. Tampa Bay is a strong option). If I go with those, I'll probably use Dallas in the small league which is unlikely to last past week 10 or so, and Houston in the bigger pool.


Also the bigger pool allows 1 rebuy through week 4 which adds some complexity. I've always ignored that possibility when handicapping and just used it if necessary.


				

				

						

							

								
							

						


						
					

				
			


			

	


			
			
				

			
		

	






		

			
			
				Wellness Wednesday for September 11, 2024
			
		

	

	

	

		
			

			

				

			

		

			


				

					
Mazel tov.


One thing that I did (which seems to have worked out well) is to constantly talk to the kid and narrate what you're doing and what's going on. Not in baby talk, but just generally "Now I'm cooking dinner, tonight we're having shepherd's pie. First we brown the ground turkey. Browning means we cook it in the pan for a while until it turns sort of brownish. Meat tastes much better when it's cooked, so that's why we do it.'  Etc. Kids soak that up, even young babies. Sing to them, tell them stories, read them books.


Also my favorite saying for parenthood: 'The perfect is the enemy of the good.' Your kid will be fine. Try to set a decent example and they'll turn out well.


				

				

						

							

								
							

						


						
					

				
			


			

	


			
			
				

			
		

	






		

			
			
				Culture War Roundup for the week of September 2, 2024
			
		

	

	

	

		
			

			

				

			

		

			


				

					
Or as we used to call it in the station wagon, the way way back.


				

				

						

							

								
							

						


						
					

				
			


			

	


			
			
				

			
		

	






		

			
			
				Culture War Roundup for the week of August 12, 2024
			
		

	

	

	

		
			

			

				

			

		

			


				

					
Believe it or not 10% used to be standard. And of course you are correct that tips are automatically adjusted for inflation (like TIPS, funnily enough) so there is no legitimate reason for the percentage to increase over time.


My family has severely curtailed restaurant outings for many reasons but personally that is one of mine.


				

				

						

							

								
							

						


						
					

				
			


			

	


			
			
				

			
		

	






		

			
			
				Culture War Roundup for the week of July 22, 2024
			
		

	

	

	

		
			

			

				

			

		

			


				

					
Well sure but that doesn't affect the ticket, just the last few months of the current administration.


				

				

						

							

								
							

						


						
					

				
			


			

	


			
			
				

			
		

	






		

			
			
				Culture War Roundup for the week of July 15, 2024
			
		

	

	

	

		
			

			

				

			

		

			


				

					
Eh, this is one of those things that I will just deal with as part of married life. Otherwise she's honestly great. And I'm exaggerating my discomfort a bit - I will simply retreat to my office (where I prefer to be 90% of the time anyway) and we'll deal. Yesterday was an outlier with all of the news and Harris hype.


				

				

						

							

								
							

						


						
					

				
			


			

	


			
			
				

			
		

	






		

			
			
				Culture War Roundup for the week of July 15, 2024
			
		

	

	

	

		
			

			

				

			

		

			


				

					
Yes, I am usually either listening to music with headphones or playing guitar. The wife asked if I would prefer CNN and I of course said yes. So I sat for an hour or so and tried to read a book while it was on. On the plus side, they did have a few people in touch with reality which was mildly heartening. But I can't take four months of this.


				

				

						

							

								
							

						


						
					

				
			


			

	


			
			
				

			
		

	






		

			
			
				Culture War Roundup for the week of July 15, 2024
			
		

	

	

	

		
			

			

				

			

		

			


				

					
I am (unreasonably often) subjected to MSNBC as my wife is a diehard Democrat. The hagiography of Biden as the most selfless hero to ever walk the planet is absolutely mind-boggling.  Normally I try my damnedest to keep my mouth shut but I was cooking dinner and I couldn't help myself. Usually, I can rationalize where people are coming from, but the sheer effrontery to claim that he was somehow a great president with a great career is so counter to reality that my brain just shut down for a minute. I'm going to have to crank up the music in my home office even louder than usual for the next 4+ months.


				

				

						

							

								
							

						


						
					

				
			


			

	


			
			
				

			
		

	






		

			
			
				Culture War Roundup for the week of July 15, 2024
			
		

	

	

	

		
			

			

				

			

		

			


				

					
I think Harris is less popular than Biden, or at least not significantly more popular.


				

				

						

							

								
							

						


						
					

				
			


			

	


			
			
				

			
		

	






		

			
			
				Culture War Roundup for the week of July 15, 2024
			
		

	

	

	

		
			

			

				

			

		

			


				

					
I have a general rule that I do not make big changes regarding financial situations or anything else that are predicated on assumptions about future political or legal actions.


For example, there is a fairly common strategy of converting IRAs and 401ks which are pretax (meaning that you have not yet paid taxes on them but will need to do so upon withdrawal) into Roth IRAs and 401ks (which will be tax-free upon withdrawal). To do this you need to pay taxes today to attempt to save taxes in the future; as such it is basically a bet on your tax rate today vs. at retirement. However the hidden assumption is that Roth vehicles will never be taxed, and I put the odds of that at much lower than 100%. We're going to need to get that UBI money from someone.


That being said I didn't think I'd ever sniff Social Security and I now have <20 years max left (pending changes to retirement age). But I have found that eking out small +EV in life tends to be dwarfed by variance. At the poker table sure, but not when dealing with the vicissitudes of fate.


				

				

						

							

								
							

						


						
					

				
			


			

	


			
			
				

			
		

	






		

			
			
				Wellness Wednesday for May 8, 2024
			
		

	

	

	

		
			

			

				

			

		

			


				

					
I am old and out of touch, so take this with the proper skepticism. Clearly you need to just not ask her out. If you run into her, get your hug, have a pleasant conversation, and let that be the end of it. Presumably she has your number etc.


Fool me once, shame on you. Fool me three times, I won't get fooled again. (/bush2)


				

				

						

							

								
							

						


						
					

				
			


			

	


			
			
				

			
		

	






		

			
			
				Culture War Roundup for the week of April 29, 2024
			
		

	

	

	

		
			

			

				

			

		

			


				

					
The TIPS are for my version of a liability matching portfolio. The main idea is to ensure that we have an inflation-adjusted income floor in retirement that matches current spending, so that in theory our lifestyle will not need to change for financial reasons.


In our particular case I am penciling in my retirement at 63 and wife's when I am 68 (she is younger). We'll both start drawing SS when I am 70. So I need amount A for years 63-67, amount B for years 68-69, and amount C for years 70+ (currently planned through 82). These amounts are obviously estimates but reasonably good ones, and they exclude items like college which are accounted for separately. Once these floors are established, then the majority of the rest of the portfolio will be in global stock index funds with some in Treasurys.


I have about 2/3 of this locked in already. Currently there is a gap in TIPS availability from 2035-2039 which coincides with part of my plan. The 2035s will be available next year as 10y and I will just buy them as they become available. Then for some of the other years I will fill in as money becomes available.


This strategy is not for everyone but my wife is particularly risk averse and we do not need to take any additional risks to ensure a solid retirement. My goal is to preserve our current lifestyle - I'm not trying to hit the jackpot. The overall allocation is about 33% stock, 39% TIPS, 28% T-bills at this point.


				

				

						

							

								
							

						


						
					

				
			


			

	


			
			
				

			
		

	






		

			
			
				Culture War Roundup for the week of April 29, 2024
			
		

	

	

	

		
			

			

				

			

		

			


				

					
Yes that's correct, and also that we live in a boring world. Fortunately investing should be boring so that works out well. There are some occasional trainwreck posts that are entertaining, but the mods there are extremely quick on the trigger so they tend to peter out quickly.


I first started there over 20 years ago when it was much more niche and the strategies espoused were not as well known. The philosophy has probably saved/made me a few hundred thousand dollars over time versus picking my own stocks, so I have some residual good feelings.