MadMonzer
Temporarily embarrassed liberal elite
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User ID: 896
MadMonzer
Temporarily embarrassed liberal elite
11d ago
The election wasn't a 50/50 or a dice-roll. It was one way or another.
Before it happened, it wasn't. Even if you had universal legilmency and knew the political views of every voter as well as the voter knew themselves, the result could differ from the legilmency-poll because of differential turnout (which can be affected by unpollable things like the weather on polling day) or late swing (some voters actually change their minds in the 3-4 days between the field work being done for the eve-of-poll polls and the actual election).
If the exit polls are correct, the Brexit referendum was decided by people who made their mind up day-of.
MadMonzer
Temporarily embarrassed liberal elite
11d ago
He should get credit for being well-calibrated. If he is always right with his confident predictions and mostly right with his hedged predictions, then he is doing the right thing.
MadMonzer
Temporarily embarrassed liberal elite
11d ago
His big brag in 2016 was ultimately that he had herded towards 50/50 harder than anybody else.
He wasn't herding. "Trump can win this" was a contrarian viewpoint among people who see themselves as nonpartisan observers of public opinion.
MadMonzer
Temporarily embarrassed liberal elite
12d ago
I haven't played any Vicky or HOI titles, unfortunately (and I haven't played enough EUIV). This thread began with a Glitterhoof post, so I assumed we were playing CK2.
MadMonzer
Temporarily embarrassed liberal elite
12d ago
One of my favorite half-joking proposals: Either the US should get 50 seats at the UN, or the EU should get one. They are both unions of sovereign states under the umbrella of a larger entity, after all.
The individual states of the US are prohibited by the Constitution from signing treaties, which means that they can't join treaty-governed international organisations. If UN voting power was weighted by some combination of population and budgetary contribution (as it should be) then this argument would be otiose.
MadMonzer
Temporarily embarrassed liberal elite
12d ago
K. of Bavaria: 9.4⋅1011 people⋅km2 K. of Austria: 7.6⋅1011 people⋅km2
Per ck2wiki, Austria is a de jure Duchy and the Kingdom of Bavaria covers a much larger area than modern Bavaria, including most of modern Austria. So those numbers are too low for a CK2 Kingdom. I don't have time to boot up a game right now, but will check when I do.
Come for the politics, stay for the Paradox nerdery. Brett Devereaux for antipope!
MadMonzer
Temporarily embarrassed liberal elite
13d ago
people who won
The person who won is an elderly, lazy reality TV star with somewhat idiosyncratic political views with a long history across multiple careers of not honouring obligations to people who helped him out. He isn't seeking re-election and doesn't have a plausible dynastic successor (the Kushners don't want it, Don Jr and Eric aren't up to it, and Barron is a long way from 35) so he doesn't need you for anything.
The people who think they won will have exactly as much say as Trump (or whoever controls access to him if he becomes too senile to make decisions) wants them to. They can say they won't take no for an answer, but they say what they want and Trump does what he wants.
FWIW, my best guess is that both the upside and downside potential of the Trump administration will be limited by Trump's laziness and lack of attention to detail. This is what we saw in his first term, and also what we saw with Boris Johnson in the UK, who is a somewhat similar character.
MadMonzer
Temporarily embarrassed liberal elite
13d ago
Given that a Duchy can be meaningfully sovereign (they have their own laws, for example), I don't see why the US States and Canadian Provinces can't be Duchy-tier titles. The average present-day population of a US state is 6 million, and the median is 4.5 million. The typical present-day population of a CK2 de jure Duchy in Western Europe looks like 2-3 million (much higher in England because of industrial-era population growth) vs about 15 million for a Kingdom. Also, the nearest equivalent to US states in terms of their shared sovereignty are the Electorates of the HRE, which are Duchy-tier. I think the US was a Kingdom-tier title at the time of the founding (given that it was plausible for the British Empire to vassalize it) and became an Empire in the usual way once it de facto controlled 80% of its de jure territory.
MadMonzer
Temporarily embarrassed liberal elite
13d ago
The GOP has a clear path forward, Trump has seemingly reinstantiated the Reaganist "coalition of doers", the coalition of people who add value to the economy rather than extracting it.
Much more so on X than in reality. Apart from Texas, the places that pay net federal taxes are all solidly blue, and the people who actually build Musk's rockets appear to be (based on published stats about who corporate employees donate to) supermajority Democrats. The biggest Republican success story (De Santis' Florida) has an economy that is dependent on attracting retirees who come with large fiscal transfers attached. Remember that Trump's stated economic policy (which his normie supporters are strongly in favour of) is to repeal the CHIPS act, impose 10-20% tariffs on any ASML EUV machines that Intel (or TSMC US) tries to install in their next fab, and focus industrial policy on trying to bring toaster factories back to the Rustbelt.
The problem for a coalition of doers on the right is that most of the doers sit in the libertarian quadrant of the political compass, whereas the easiest place to take votes off the Democrats is in the populist quadrant. In the UK, housing policy is sufficiently centralised that this problem blows up the Conservative Party about once every six months.
MadMonzer
Temporarily embarrassed liberal elite
13d ago
Agreed. The only practical benefit of sex-segregated toilets is that women don't have to walk past an operative urinal on the way to their stall.
MadMonzer
Temporarily embarrassed liberal elite
13d ago
The issue isn't just that she has to survive Trump - the issue is that the next Democratic president will probably face a Republican senate who may either be able to insist on a moderate pick, or simply hold the seat open for the next Republican president.
Given the overrepresentation of low-population red states, a Democratic Senate majority is an extremely unlikely outcome, and the one the Democrats just lost depended on Democrats who won in red states in the 2006 midterm landslide clinging on through a combination of incumbency advantage and strategic moderation. This makes the current situation a once-per-generation opportunity for Democrats to confirm judges.
MadMonzer
Temporarily embarrassed liberal elite
13d ago
Curse the job and family that stop me playing Paradox games properly.
MadMonzer
Temporarily embarrassed liberal elite
13d ago
None of the barracks emperors of the 3rd century (with the possible exception of Aurelian) are notable enough that the average classically educated liberal elite (ipse dixit) can remember their names, and even among the ones who can remember Philip the Arab, his foreign policy is more notable than his millennium celebration. 3rd century Roman history is sufficiently remote from the culture war that I would consider Wikipedia trustworthy, and it gives the celebrations one line in Philip's article.
MadMonzer
Temporarily embarrassed liberal elite
13d ago
It's a newer agency anyway and I think the actually useful parts can just go back to being standalone or parts of other agencies.
DHS is a department, not an agency. Apart from the TSA, none of its agencies (list) are new, or obviously surplus to requirements.
Abolishing TSA would obviously be a good idea - move the bits of aviation security that can't be privatised into the FAA, move the bits of port security that can't be privatised into the Coast Guard, and let ordinary law enforcement handle land transport security. But having the various border-policing agencies (CIS, CBP, ICE, Coast Guard) sitting in the same department is probably a good thing given how closely you want them working together.
[This may change if Trump is serious about using broad-based tariffs for revenue - in that case you probably have to unmerge immigration and customs and put customs into the Treasury so it focusses on its revenue collection mission.]
I continue to think the Secret Service should sit in the Treasury for coup-proofing reasons.
To troll the Deep State without handing too much power over to someone politically unreliable, Trump should make Tulsi Gabbard DHS inspector general.
MadMonzer
Temporarily embarrassed liberal elite
13d ago
Isn't this more of a Stellaris-playing administration, what with Musk and all?
In any case, I do not see Alina Habba as a future Pope.
It is worth pointing out that the Kingdom of Canada is still technically a vassal of the British Empire, so pressing the claim would mean with war with the top liege and all his vassals, which probably include nuclear Gandhi.
MadMonzer
Temporarily embarrassed liberal elite
13d ago
If we are making a distinction between dissident members of the establishment and actual anti-establishment candidates, any Kennedy clearly falls even more on the "establishment dissident" side than Trump does.
MadMonzer
Temporarily embarrassed liberal elite
14d ago
What do we think the odds are that a) Trump will try to nominate his horse for SCOTUS (not literally, but nominating a poorly qualified candidate who is personally tied to him the way Bush did with Harriet Miers)? b) The GOP senate majority will confirm her if he does?
First term Trump promised to nominate Fedsoc-aproved justices, and did. Second term Trump never needed to make that promise. My ill-informed guess is (a) 20% and (b) 60% but these are very much out-of-posterior probabilities. For purposes of settlement I would consider Aileen Cannon to be a horse, but not any other sitting federal judge. If Trump nominates Kacsmaryk, Pittman or O'Connor from the Northern District of Texas, he will be accused of nominating his horse, but these judges are right-wing judicial activists who are more loyal to the conservative movement than Trump personally.
MadMonzer
Temporarily embarrassed liberal elite
14d ago
The prediction markets obviously had a mild bias in favour of Trump in that:
- You needed crypto to use Polymarket, which means it has a more pro-Trump userbase who are vulnerable to wishcasting.
- There was an identified French whale who did not appear an entirely rational actor betting on Trump. So the "trust prediction markets" view is slightly more pro-Harris than the actual market prices.
MadMonzer
Temporarily embarrassed liberal elite
14d ago
If you were paying attention to fringe left-wing politics, the Great Awokening dates back to the failure of Occupy in 2011. Trayvon Martin is when it got big enough that the establishment left wanted to play ball with it. Gamergate was when it became obvious that there was no adult supervision and that wokestupid twentysomethings were, at least in left-wing spaces, in charge.
MadMonzer
Temporarily embarrassed liberal elite
14d ago
FWIW, when I was a child "beauty sleep" was used when encouraging small children of both sexes (and, presumably, all genders, although we didn't know that at the time) to go to sleep. I have never heard it used with respect to an adult.
MadMonzer
Temporarily embarrassed liberal elite
14d ago
Is there any proof that outraising and out funding helps campaigns ?
Fundraising has a massive impact on campaigns. If Hilary Clinton had raised $200 million less, she would be President of the United States.
MadMonzer
Temporarily embarrassed liberal elite
14d ago
The Twitter Files were mostly about attempts to censor Twitter by the deep state while Trump was President, not attempts by the Biden administration to censor Twitter. In other words, they are a point in favour of "1st-term Trump was too ineffective as President to do much about pervasive censorship," which is what @LiberalRetvrn seems to be getting at.
MadMonzer
Temporarily embarrassed liberal elite
14d ago
We probably will see a continuing trend of corporate to politics pivots, to mixed success.
Trump looks like a corporate-to-politics pivot, but he is actually a reality TV-to-politics pivot - he was mostly a failure as a businessman, but a once-in-a-generation success playing a businessman on TV. I think it is significant that the only two Republican candidates that the base doesn't regret nominating (i.e. Reagan and Trump) are both actors. The machine that produces Donald Trumps is the machine that produces good conservative movies and TV - and someone needs to build it.
Does anyone have any ideas about what is going on with Marco Rubio as SecState?
Rubio's substantive political views are those of a swamp neocon on foreign policy and a conventional GOPe conservative on domestic policy. He isn't noted for his personal loyalty to Trump (to put things lightly). So what is Trump's motivation for appointing him? Rubio is a Ukraine war sceptic, but there are lots of Ukraine war sceptics with foreign policy experience who are closer to Trump. This looks like the same mistake Trump made appointing Tillerson in his first term.
This is sufficiently hard to explain that I am finding the left-wing conspiracy theory plausible (that the point isn't to get Rubio into the Cabinet, it's to get him out of the Senate, and Trump has already agreed with DeSantis on who will be appointed to the vacant Senate seat, probably a Trump family member).
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