KulakRevolt
Writes at https://anarchonomicon.substack.com/
Writes weird Twitter Threads @FromKulak
Rides motorcycles... poorly.
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Winner of Motte Post of the Year 2019
User ID: 905
KulakRevolt
10mo ago
TFR is directly driven by rural VS Urban and cost of living.
Those who live in rural areas have more kids.
Forcing Urbanization by importing immigrants who settle in cities rapidly increases both urbanization AND the cost of living, cascading TFR downwards.
You're making the problem worse and forcing the children produced by the native rural population to support a bunch of aliens when their old age comes in 20 years (you don't get to be the kind of skilled immigrant slected for in your 20s or even early 30s)
Ethnic Expulsions would be the best thing for birth rates.
Lowered cost of living and rapidly increased perception of risk correlates heavily with higher TFR. There's a reason over 50% of Gaza is under 18
KulakRevolt
10mo ago
No the liberals are well aware they're possibly never getting back into power.
All of Canada's left depends on Canadian media propped up by government subsidies. There isn't a newspaper, tv channel, or magazine that survives without it.
The conservatives have made it a CORE part of their platform that they'll defund it all... this is the thing their base cares about, this is the thing the party bosses all salivate over... If you told them the journalists would starve to death on the street they'd take the week off to watch it happen and jeer in real time.
They'll Let the CBC and every Canadian broadcaster die, such that it will just be Rebel News and American Media.
Unlike the US where there is sufficient demand and backdoor bribes to keep legacy media going, in Canada it will just die.
And then it will be 4 YEARS until the next election.
The big lesson they learnt from Harper and the convoys is the only thing preventing the total Americanization of Canada (and permanent shift to a US style 60-40 right-left division of time in power (as opposed to the 20-80 Canada had in the 20th century) is State funding of Media...
And they will spend ANY political capital and suffer any scandal to watch those journalist die deaths of despair.
The Big Shift (title of the book that predicted this would occur naturally in the 2010s) was Harper's dream, that if he hit the liberals at just the right angle enough times, their party would die. The New Democrats would become the left wing party, the bloc would become permanently more powerful in Quebec, and Canada forever after would function as America Jr. in terms of how politics played out...
This didn't happen because Trudeau had a magic to him, and every institution fought tooth and nail to prevent the 4th Harper Victory that would have locked it in.
But with Conservative Pierre Poilievre's now 40+% in national polls (this in a 5-6 party system)...and with Poilievre framing himself as Stephen Harper, but more blood-thirsty and Trucker levels of hostile to the media...
This looks like it might be the end of the Liberal-Laurentian era of Canadian politics.
Canada is a country where the parties aren't systemically locked in like in the states... and Great parties have died before. (see the progressive-Conservatives going from a Majority government to 2 seats in the 90s never forming government again, and then harper and his hostile Westerners to absorb them, then slowly purge the remainder of their leaders)
KulakRevolt
11mo ago
And what would have happened if the US and USSR had not pushed a ceasefire?
How many wars end in 6 days!?
If not for the international alliance system, Israel would win and win and win... for the first few months. Then their forces would reach the limits of what they can hold... and then the reality of being 10 million amidst 500 million Muslims would set in and they'd be ground away to nothing by the reality of attritional artillery warfare and urban insurgency... and they'd be fucked.
Israel has never fought a war like the Iran-Iraq war, or the Russo-Ukraine War, or the World Wars, or even the Chinese or US civil wars, or even Vietnam, Iraq, or the Soviet-Afghanistan. Or even the Rhodesian Bush war, where they have to face an armed organized enemy continuously attacking their military and probably civilians for a decade+.
They've always been able to depend on the international order forcing a ceasefire and locking in their victories... and securing hard blockades on their Palestinian enemies, enforce even by their regional rivals in exchange for US Aid.
Rhodesia certainly didn't have the US bribing Mozambique and Zambia to the tunes of billions of dollars a year to enforce secure borders and block smuggling, the way way Israel does with the US bribing Egypt and Jordan.
That is very unusual. Especially in the 20th century. And it is NOT stable.
The fact that they then decided to Sex Traffick the children of the power they desperately need to backstop 100% of their regional security concerns is the cherry on top.
KulakRevolt
11mo ago
I think you're making the mistake of seeing the people you immediate know and interact with have dumb tribalist reasons for believing what they believe... and then look at see the majority of that movement is composed of such people with largely the same motivations... And then generalize that to the movement, instead of to ALL movements.
I can guarantee you there's some Clever young Israeli/America Jew writing the exact same thing about how his family members have dumb easily disproven, obviously inconsistent beliefs about Israel's ancient right to Pallestine, their explicit and open racism against arabs (the kind of which they're scream for a Second Sherman's march if a southerner said it about blacks)... And then can look and find Israeli politicians and even think tanks making THE EXACT SAME BULLSHIT arguments... but actually affecting policy with it.
Tribalism, stupidity, and arguments as soldiers is the rule, not the exception.
This is why you find rationalists are almost always the polar opposite of their early intellectual enviroment, because that's the ideology they've seen all the way through.
Israel is inherently destabilizing because it never has to negotiate... in spite of being completely outnumbered and outgunned regionally. Israel can fail to negotiate, get into lighting regional wars... and then they should be fucked from the fact it just started a fight with a vastly larger number of people who could just start ww1 or Iran-War style attritional warfare and bleed them out over a year... But that war never happens because they have America to force and sanction a ceasefire for them.
Its as if a guy had only one or two quic punches in him, went to a bar... and got in fights on the knowledge he had a bigger friend there who will break it up after the first few punches when he'd be screwed.
This is why the peace process goes nowhere because Israel's in a heads i win-tails ReFlip position... that's completely artificial and built on exploiting the US taxpayer and trust of the Iowan Christians who'd die fighting a major middle-east war.
Its an inherently belligerent position. They're Serbian nationalists starting shit in the early 20th century on the Knowledge Russia will declare war to protect them.
Likewise all the analysis of "Methods" is complete bullshit when we're comparing An insurgent terrorist movement to a rogue state that's secretly developed nuclear weapons.
Sure when Israel commits genocide against Palestinian refugees, they give Lebanese Christian Militias a nod and a wink and then protect them as they do it in eyesight of the IDF... they make sure there's no pictures of the IDF using a machete or rifle on a mother and child. Likewise they control the tapes when they sex traffic American girls ot Blackmail US politicians ...
the Idea Jeffery Epstein or Ghislaine Maxwell were NOT Mossad agents is the conspiracy theory. Who is this shadowy org that can corrupt and recruit the Daughter of Robert Maxwell right under the Mossad's nose, then stop the Mossad and CIA from acting and opening every file to stop the madness, when Epstein got caught and they realize Ghislaine and Epstein were rogue and SEX TRAFFICKING AMERICAN CHILDREN... Was it the Free Masons? Aliens!? Antarctic Space Nazis?
Its a conspiracy theory to say it wasn't exactly what it looked like, and Israel is the single most traitorous enemy America has ever faced.
EVERY SINGLE THING Hamas has ever done has either had direct precedents in something Israel has done to the Palestinians, or has been vastly more restrained and measured.
If this were 2008 I'd say neither side deserves US backing and funding... But in light of Epstein I believe America should Fund and Arm the moderate Gazan rebels. Exactly one of these groups has attacked American children in America.
KulakRevolt
1yr ago
Israel Could really lose this one
https://www.anarchonomicon.com/p/israel-could-really-lose-this-one?r=1b6v2r
A 9000 word deep dive I wrote on the Tactics and Geostrategics of the Gaza invasion and why there's a real risk that one wrong step from Israel might end in them not being able to break off or achieve a Ceasefire.
KulakRevolt
1yr ago
You have to feel for him, ever so slightly, in that he was elected on a peace platform of negotiating with Russia and the breakaway republics... and then was forced into the war by the Ukrainian ultranationalist in the Ukrainian perma-government who would have 100% assassinated him if he'd actually negotiated agreeable terms or peace.
KulakRevolt
1yr ago
Put DC to the Sword is a concrete policy proposal, dissolve the Union, destroy the political class, and make America 50 independent states.
KulakRevolt
1yr ago
You can't just get rid of the drug dealers because drug users expand into the role as opportunity and demand allows.
I've know dozens of people who've used drugs (Marijauna, coke, psychedelics, etc.) and fulfilled the dealer role at various points, some near professionally.
Basically Supply-side drug enforcement doesn't work, you can maybe get the trade to shift or change shape or increase the marginal price of drugs by 50% but the structural margins keep new cartels, smuggling networks and gangs forming...
To have any success without turning to nation into a totalitarian police state you'd have to start going after users, for being users.
Start arresting randomly for disruptive behaviour, public drunkenness, etc. then Drug test immediately, then charge with possession and consumption, with follow on charges... and you'd have to do that to millions... And heaven help you if middle-class white kids aren't being caught up into it and there's now a massive racial dynamic and revolt, and heaven help you if you actually make upper-midlde-class white American's suffer the consequences of their preferred policies and have THEIR kids dragged off and imprisoned for years... or they'll revolt.
Basically any intervention you could do is either completely ineffective or would be totalitarian in some manner that would start a revolt.
I think you're misunderstanding... The US probably could cripple 50% of the domestic US drug trade by 5x-ing the US prison population, which in and of itself might start a hot ethnic conflict on a par with the 1970s (not all Americans use drugs equally, and of those that do they're certainly not equal in their likelihood to get caught)...
The challenge is Hostily imposing this on another country of 126 million, where something like 30-50% of the local government is just pretending to be an ally whilst taking bribes and actively integrating with the cartels.
China has a problem like this, it's called corruption, and Chinese Corruption is absolutely impossible to root out not least because there isn't really a non-corrupt faction and every arrest for corruption is really just backdoor purging by the various factions.
So lets say America goes balls to the wall in Mexico, Full invasion of Iraq. HALF A MILLION US military personnel and then 200-400 thousand continuously once established, This is basically all the US can spare, with 1.4 million active-duty military personnel total, this is everyone but the people actually maintaining the bases and operating the Ships back in the US and around the empire...
The thing is that wasn't enough in Iraq. There was the entire war during the occupation which was only reduced down to a dull roar with the surge.
And this was Iraq with a population one third the Size of Mexico, a Shia Majority, and Kurdish minority that were being empowered by the US intervention against their hated Sunni minority rival who was the one actually fighting the US... And even then it didn't work, and Sunni ISIS arose within a decade, and the country is still divided between militias and local warlords.
You do that in a country with 3x the population, 2x the GDP, several massive cities, and insurgent networks that are basically already adapted to resist US surveillance (these guys have been paranoid about cellphones since the 80s, many cartel bosses simply do not allow cellphones within 200 meters of them, since they assume the NSA is already going full tilt spying on them, and that will be all of them instantly if the ones that don't start getting picked off)...
And also 10 cities with populations over a million where drone strikes basically can't be done, one of which is a ten-million-person mega-city that will just devour an army that tries to occupy it...
Oh ya and it's a permanently profitable trade. So you have to maintain this, for decades... because there's no way you're getting rid of all the corrupt Mexican officials, many of whom are popular and elected, and many of whom are the military... and it will instantly replace itself the second you leave.
Rand had a paper to the effect that The golden ratio for hostile occupations of conquered people is 1 soldier per 50 civilians... that's what was used in Germany after WW2 and Kosovo, America's 2 successful occupations.
America would need 2-3 million to do that in Mexico, or twice the number of people in the entire military... so you'd need a draft, which would be resisted, the resistance of which would be funded by the cartels... which would require further military force and straining of America's already stretched thin police to put down...
You see how this quickly becomes the American state itself being stretched thin, across AMERICA, even if the government magically bites the bullet and goes full force from the start, instead of making the easy call like they did in Vietnam and Iraq and massively under-committing thus letting their enemy organize and create networks, and adapt to the hardest hitting tactics, whilst the politicians are still calling their forces in country "Advisors" and telling the American people they're not at war, whilst various military planners are actually kind-of secretly hoping something will happen and dozens of Americans will be killed so they can have popular support to actually do something that might be kindof effective...
It'll inevitably be something America sleepwalks backward into with some minor commitment, turning into casualties, turning into bigger commitments, turning into more casualties, turning into outrage, turning into a war, turning into a Quagmire... turning into Vietnam...
Except America would never be able to pull out of this Vietnam because it's RIGHT THERE, and the conflict would immediately be inside America's border.
El Salvador succeeded in its campaign because it's a country that was both unnecessary to the drug trade (so once the margins got high enough the trade could go elsewhere), it had the security force fully committed, it had local political will... and it did vastly less than you're thinking because they took out only 3 specific gangs not the trade itself (strongly suspect the El Salvadorean regime is backdoor participating in the international trade for personal profit just like Noriega, and their policy is just making a deal with the people to not let it affect El Salvador directly... so there was a massive profit motive in El Salvadorean security forces crushing MS-13, they were probably their rivals)
KulakRevolt
1yr ago
Maybe I should just bite the bullet with "Twitter CatGirl"
KulakRevolt
1yr ago
Its not maximizing outgroup hatred. Its establishment hatred.
There are tons of people who switched to supporting Trump who would have backed Ron Paul, or Bernie Sanders despite the three not overlapping in policy at all.
OP said he was worried Trump would "Break America" There are tens of millions who are just voting for whatever they think will make America break.
Lots of Americans would support basically anyone to rule the US as long as the first thing they did was put DC to the sword and Harvard to the torch.
KulakRevolt
1yr ago
I recently switched from "Writer" to "Director of Marketing and Media" did nothing... Mind you it's possible that that screams bullshit job... but My impression is you have to communicate through the photos, not words.
Genuinely shocked guys don't do group Tinder days where they just all rent suits and go about taking photos in a major city, then all charter a yacht for the day and take photos on it.
KulakRevolt
1yr ago
The law wasn't written for presidents, it was written for the general population. Indeed an individual state would not be able to write a law binding only the president.
Ergo if it applies to him Retweeting and commenting on a news piece, it applies to literally everyone for all political speech.
KulakRevolt
1yr ago
They are well aware via plain reading of the second amendment and any of the surrounding documentation, as their is enough evidence that they did know the text of the second amendment or should have known such as makes no difference.
But even if we allow that by your logic the tens of millions of democrats who have at some point said "The Second Amendment says this, that's why politicians need to get rid of it" Would thenforce be guilty anytime they advocated gun-control, and probably on every individual count.
Think of all the democrats who at some point said something like "the constitution was written by slaveowners, we don't need to listen to what slaveowners wrote about slaveowner's rights to own guns" All of them go to prison under this standard, that's hundreds of thousands if not millions of democrats.
KulakRevolt
1yr ago
If solicting a government official to violate their oath of office is a crime punishable by 1 year per instance, then the very second a libertarian government gets in every single democrat and half of republicans will be put in the work camps for repeatedly soliciting politicians to pass gun control and violate their oath to defend the constitution (which includes the second amendment).
Also every single crime will now be a life sentence because asking police officers and judges to go easy on you will now be likewise criminal solicitation to violate the law and not uphold it.
This law is a blatant violation of not only free speech, but the right to petition, it is not on the public not to ask politicians and government officials not to violate their oaths, it is on the government officials not to violate it.
Notably the first president or public official ever convicted in any way related to their oath will not be convicted for violation, which has basically never been adjudicated and has no precedent, not even rank madness like Lincoln bringing in a draft never mentioned in the constitution or the illegally ratified 16th amendment which makes a mockery of every privacy and property right in the constitution or english common law...
But instead the first notable conviction for anything oath related would be of an elected American President, not for any war crime, not for any violation of American's rights, not for corruption, not for colluding with hostile foreign powers (as FDR certainly did with Stalinist Russia), but for asking a state official to review something the state official didn't....
If Trump can go down for this every soul who's ever set foot in DC could be hanged. And I would lead the revolutionary tribunals to do it.
KulakRevolt
1yr ago
Do you have a problem with Cheques, cash, wire transfers, and Credit Cards? Because fraud equally happens just as much if not more often in those mediums.
Fraud is a function of ease of use, the easier a medium of exchange is to use, the easier it is to talk idiots into hurting themselves with it.
Crypto actually has far less fraud than most other mediums of exchange... because its a pain in the ass.
THe only exceptions are blanket mass mailers like this where you try to get some fool to blind yolo money into an account without even pretending there's another side of the bargain, outside a vague threat of "technology scary" so the added element of crypto ads to their normie techno-thriller fears...
Or, there's crypto pump and dumps and other market frauds, which aren't even frauds in the classic sense since its all people trying to outwit and out-lie each other in the speculative market.
None of these things actually effect the use... maybe it gives it a shady perception... but who cares, that's not the thing that makes crypto precarious.
The thing that makes crypto precarious is if you misplace or forget a password you can lose thousands or millions of dollars...
KulakRevolt
1yr ago
Ya it seems there's a lot of high-effort stuff that can get buried for being in the culture war thread...
Maybe a soft rule that culture war-related posts can be top level, if, and only if they are indeed high effort.
You get this weird disjuct where stuff that gets posted outside the thread can actually be quite inflammatory and low engagement, but its allowed because its not immediately culture-war related, whereas a lot of gorgeous high-effort stuff would not be seen by someone scrolling through the landing page because its culture war-related and buried in a thread.
Like the quality contribution roundup is amazing and we should maintain it, but you have to remember the reason it exists is because of how bloody hard it is to find even a major, forum-defining contribution... mere days after it hass been posted
KulakRevolt
1yr ago
Yes but he faced court martial. And it was assumed Bligh would just on the basis he lost their ship.
The U.S.S. Bonhomme Richard burned and was lost in 2020... and the Captain never faced charges, indeed it was assumed he would not and they tried to scapegoat a lone Seaman.
Likewise no generals were court martialed for the loss of Afghanistan... or the fall of Mosul to Isis...
In any responcible military any major loss should result in charges and the assumption the responcible Commander will bear the burden of proof for his conduct.
KulakRevolt
1yr ago
The North American right's material position is vastly different from the European... All the Muslims in north America made it through a traditional immigration system and largely are middle class with a few nere-do-well sons that occassionally join gangs... nothing like what Europe faces with its massive underclass of islamic disfunction.
Likewise the Anglosphere has a large meaningful right wing counter culture whereas europe doesn't.
Insitutional left wing media is monstrosity with a skinsuit of legacy brand drawn over it... No Canadians give a damn about the CBC, Disney and hollywood aren't driving culture or building new brands, etc. Basically all the new culture is being developed by individual creators or being imported from various international sources like anime, or Eastern European video games... etc. In addition to the already thriving Country cultureand the paralell red tribe culture that already existed.
As far as I can tell NONE of that has a parallels in Europe or even Quebec. I was in Quebec recently and it was like being time warped back to 2012... none of the big cultural shifts have penetrated.
Every ethnic group in Europe is still in the Thralls of their regional state backed media becuase they'll actually produce shows in their language or mutual not understandable dialect, in the Case of the UK...
North American anglo-culture is just vastly more online, nebulous hard to tact down, and its legacy media has aged and died far faster.
A career in Media or Entertainment in North America right now is akin to being an Auto-worker in the 80s waiting for your plant to shut... and everyone knows it. Basically every Hollywood movie over the past several months has bombed, and most of the studios are looking at layoffs...Everyone under 50 knows working for a magazine or a newspaper is basically a Career kiss of death at this point, and everyone's desperately trying to make the jump to the post insitutional influencer economy.
And as far as I can tell basically everywhere outside North America is 5-10 years atleast behind it on the trend.
...
What should Europeans take from the North American right's Handbook? Probably very little.
Even you internet is heavily regulated and institutionally controlled and gate-kept in a way ours isn't
KulakRevolt
1yr ago
Seems there should be some suitably populous and miserable country that would accept them if you just paid them to take them... A la Australia and Papua New Ginea.
If you paid the Nigerian government 5k a head to take them off your hands they almost certainly would.
KulakRevolt
1yr ago
Maybe in the age of sail... When Blithe could be court martialed for losing his ship to a mutiny or Byng be executed for failing to pursue the enemy...
But no one actually believes in classical responsibility any more where one is accountable for outcomes and any technical failure is prima facie evidence of a personal moral failure... Unless he was actually stupid enough to admit aloud the game controller's blue tooth wasn't working or something obscene, and "Accident" would be assumed to be an "Accident"
KulakRevolt
1yr ago
You only think you're talking about class.
Homicide and crime rates are vastly less correlated with income or social class than race.
Japan and Many European countries have GDPs that are nearly half that of the the US and the median person has an income lower than the average African American yet have basically no crime.
Meanwhile the African Americans at the Top 20% percentile of the income distribution have a higher arrest rate than white American's at the bottom 20th percentile.
Likewise urbanization vs. Rural doesn't matter... religiosity...
Life is a biological phenomenon.
KulakRevolt
1yr ago
Atlanta has a Murder rate of 16 per 100,000, Mobile has a murder rate of 20 per 100,000.
Chicago is 18. Right between the two.
Democrats are not the relevant factor.
By contrast Major cities with almost no African Americans have murder rates of 2. And almost entirely white towns and areas homicide rates as low as 0.4 or 0.2
Have you ever been to New England, or Canada or the Upper Midwest or any of the high trust areas with basically no crime and the demographics you'd expect?
I remember as a kid people talking about places you could leave your doors unlocked... And I thought "Oh ya I guess lots of people do that here, but you wouldn't do that in Toronto"
It took rewatching Micheal Moore's "Bowling for Columbine" to realize most Americans were talking about "Leaving your doors unlocked, AFTER YOU GET HOME FROM WORK AND ARE DOING STUFF ABOUT THE HOUSE"
Whereas people in my area were talking about "Leaving your doors unlocked while you go on vacation for a few days"
It was shocking to see Michael Moore surprized that Canadians in Sarnia didn't keep their doors locked on a summer's day WHILE THEY WERE AT HOME.
KulakRevolt
1yr ago
I'm actually not red tribe... @HlynkaCG is consistently pissed off with me for how not red-tribe I am and how much I don't get "It".
I'm a Canadian Libertarian who spent all my life in the most liberal small towns and Densest of Urban Cores.
That's why I'm so radical, these aren't just things that were unpleasant realities you learned to bite your tongue and propagate white lies about. I actually believed all the egalitarian claptrap throughout my life, that the only thing holding disadvantaged minorities back was discrimination blah blah blah, because I was Canadian and literally every minority I interacted with had gone through the Canadian immigration process and had, or had family members who had, multiple degrees in something (you basically don't get points to enter otherwise)...
So when you ACTUALLY believe everyone is created equal, and ACTUALLY believe all those disadvantaged "poor kids" are just as smart and just as talented as "white kids"... and none of your interactions would ever lead you to believe otherwise...
Then you discover the murder rate of Baltimore has been bloody 80 per 100,000! Worse than the worst warzones. And a fucking war of ethnic cleansing has been going on for the entirety of the post-war era (See any of the first hand accounts of "white flight"), and every person and institution the fucking world has been purposefully lying about it and trying to get you to hate the victims of the ethnic cleansing: Working Class whites, and to think it's just that they become second class citizens excluded from jobs and unable to speak their own minds in their own country under pain of lawsuits, being disappeared from social media, and blacklisted from public life.
And the CoNsErVaTiVeS who were supposed to be standing up for them have been actively enabling it and praising the figures who made it happen, whilst propagating every lie about it?
Ya that radicalizes in a way you cannot possibly imagine.
I'm glad I wasn't raised conservative or believing in America's institutions because there's nothing worth conserving there.
The woke are right: Race IS the most important issue in American life, and literally every American institution needs to burn because of it. They're just mistaken about the specifics of the implication.
Imagine if 20-30% of Americans were french people explicitly voting with the goal of making things worse for the English?
This isn't a charicature. a top 5 issue for Quebecers is "Climate Change" which is code for shutting down Alberta's oil, and carbon taxing Car Centric Ontario and Western communities for the crime of having to go to work... They will openly say this. Quebec politicians will say as much in French.
Living in this country has made me incredible sympathetic to everygroup that ever concluded ethnic cleansing or ethno-nationalism was the only option, when you live in a truely multi-ethnic/multi-lingual country (where there are actually mutiple groups not just a mass of "Diverse" urbanite) Everything the other ethnic group wants, votes for, advocates very quickly becomes "And the other ethnicity is going to pay for it, and we're going to hurt them extra so they can't resist as much next time"
A Canada comprised of only the 9 english provinces would be no more screwed up than US blue states without large black populations: a collection of Vermonts, Oregons, and Maines and Minosotas.
It's when you add in the weight of 20% of the population being French and there being a deep core of openly hostile Euro-left wing belief that pretty much despises everything the functionally American English Canadians value or aspire to that you get a Canada as fucked up as this is.
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