JarJarJedi
Streamlined derailments and counteridea reeducation
User ID: 1118
JarJarJedi
13d ago
Are they paranoid about China or is their only problem with China that they think they can control the US government easier than they can control the CCP? Imagine if CCP told them "you know what, we decided you are right and we're pausing our AI research, but we are kind of concerned the US would gain unfair advantage. So we need you to, you know, sabotage US a little - not a lot, just to maintain parity, nobody is going to get hurt and everybody wins!" Would they take the deal? I know a lot of their ideological predecessors took the similar deal with the USSR and the nukes...
JarJarJedi
14d ago
You have DoW directly saying that EA and all that it stands for is anti-American
Are they wrong? I mean, I don't know if there's a pure-rational EA-based case for patriotism and American exceptionalism, but I certainly didn't notice a lot of people in EA circles looking for one and trying to build one up. I suspect if somebody seriously and earnestly did so, they'd be expelled from a lot of EA spaces. I mean, I understand there could be a very different view about what "American" is about, but if we talk about what a middle ground conservative working for DoW understands about it, how much the EA movement is his friend and how much it is his enemy? I am not asking who is right and wrong between them, but if we stand on the position of DoW, what would be the correct evaluation of EA from their side?
JarJarJedi
14d ago
While Scott is a blogger that writes thoughtful and occasionally entertaining blog posts, I certainly couldn't care less about where he stands in relationship to donkeys, NASCAR or juvenile justice, unless he chooses do discuss one of these topics on the blog. HOWEVER, if he comes forward as a part of a movement that claims them - or people selected by them, or people selected by the process influenced by them - need to receive extraordinary powers which will possibly control the destiny of humanity for millennia forward - and while I don't know if it's true or not, they certainly claim it is true - I think I am entitled to apply strict scrutiny here. Weird deviant blogger is not a threat to me, and I am fine with having dozens of them around without feeling the least bit unsafe. Weird deviant cult vying for absolute control over one of the most important technologies in the history of humanity - hey, that's maybe not what I am fine with. And if they proclaim they can align the AI, maybe it's time for me to ask - align AI with what exactly, and do I really want the AI to be aligned with that?
JarJarJedi
14d ago
And it wasn't a particularly good job either, according to the experts: https://futurism.com/artificial-intelligence/real-monet-ai-chaos
JarJarJedi
14d ago
Twelve Caesars by Mary Bird. Contrary to my initial expectations, this is not the book about Roman History per se (though it features as a background) and not about the famous work by Suetonius (though it is present on the background too) but about the "Twelve Caesars" as a cultural meme and in general, about how Romans (mainly prominent, high-born Romans, of course, nobody cared about others) have been depicted in European art and culture over the centuries, and which part of this is supported by actual verifiable historical facts (spoiler: less than we'd like to). It turned out more interesting than I would expect from this description, I do not regret spending time with it.
JarJarJedi
14d ago
I think https://ai-2027.com/slowdown#slowdown-2028-03-31 might be that pitch. It pretty much openly promises Vance the crown if he joins the movement. The real power will belong to the Oversight Committee, of course, but he can have whatever is left of the remainder of the earthly power, after all, somebody needs to keep the lights on.
JarJarJedi
14d ago
"How do we make sure people are taking us seriously and do not just think we're a bunch of deluded nutcase hippies?" - "Oh, I know! Let us compare ourselves to Jesus! I mean, literally! Let us seriously claim we are the modern day Jesus and if you ever been Christian you must do what we say!".
JarJarJedi
17d ago
Yeah, he's now in the hands of UAE security, so "extremely painful" will likely describe his experience for a while.
JarJarJedi
17d ago
He was certainly a very valued technical specialist (just as Von Braun or Heisenberg or Porsche were), but that was all he was, he didn't have any "hand" in higher (or, deeper) circles. I am not saying this to somehow praise or excuse him, but rather to emphasize it's quite a common phenomenon - there were a number of highly capable specialists working for that horrible regime, and when that regime had been destroyed, they continued to be valued.
JarJarJedi
17d ago
Hitler's former right hand man
That's really swinging it far. Skorzeny was a warrior who happened to be German (well technically Austrian but you know...), so he ended up fighting on the wrong side, but he wasn't anywhere in the top Nazi hierarchy and as far as I could see, played zero role in setting any plans or policies or ideology. So "right hand man" is not a very proper description. He AFAIK also wasn't implicated in any atrocities or "final solution" type programs, so the decision to employ him is no stranger than the decision to use, e.g., Von Braun. There are moral questions with both, for sure, but neither are "Hitler's former right hand men".
JarJarJedi
20d ago
It appears clear to me that the insurance market to handle AI product liability claim will emerge very fast. Just as other methods ensuring such liability will be limited to "reasonable" sizes - either by contract, or by lobbying, or by corporate lawyering (aka "don't sue me, sue this cardboard cutout that legally is responsible for everything") so the industry will find ways to deal with it. Also: If real genuine honest FSD ever appears, I think it will drop the accident volume very significantly, because most of the accidents are caused by people being distracted, tired, drunk, stoned, or plain stupid. If we can replace Joe who just wants to get home from the pub and is absolutely sober of course after only a mere sixpack of beer, and Joan who can perfectly drive, check her email, converse on facebook and film her latest tiktok, thankyouverymuch, with robot driver that has the danger level even of an average attentive driver, the rest of the accidents - caused by mechanical failures, road malfunctions, severe weather events, etc. - I think would be quite manageable. FSD doesn't even really need to be perfect - there just needs to be enough FSD vehicles around so that the likelihood of somebody behaving in a stupid way and requiring everybody else to be perfect is low. All current stats include drunkards and idiots. How would they look without them?
JarJarJedi
20d ago
I drove a hybrid, many times (which made little difference), but I don't think I've driven an EV. Probably need to figure out a way to practice on one in a safe environment, just in case...
JarJarJedi
20d ago
I hate paying $100/m for pretty much anything. If it's not consumable/renewable (like water, food, power) I'd rather buy it upfront. I know how much money I have now, so I can figure out if I can afford it, but the future is always risky.
JarJarJedi
20d ago
Waymos are totally awesome, I always use them in cities which have them. All the convenience of Uber without some annoying guy trying to chat with you. It's a bit pricey but so far I can afford it, fortunately, and sometimes wait times are a bit long in busy places, so not ideal but quite good.
JarJarJedi
20d ago
Speaking of Teslas: I've probably not going to buy a Tesla anytime soon, but I've been offered Teslas by rental shops several times and I've so far declined, because driving an unfamiliar car in unfamiliar environment is kinda risky. So I wonder what's the experience of people that did drive it - is there any adjustment from driving a regular car that is needed? Can I just start it up and freakin drive or do I need some adjustments? How easy/hard is to get a hang of it from 0 experience?
Also, if I try it as a rental, what about range anxiety? I sometimes need to drive up to ~100 miles or more in such situations, of course mostly through urban-suburban landscape so there's always a gas station within 5-10 mins drive, but I have no idea about changing a Tesla. I remember some years ago I was out on a trip with friends, and the guy responsible for transport picked an EV (not Tesla, don't remember which one) and it turned out a minor annoyance to change it because a lot of nearby chargers had some kinds of "guests only" or "clients only" policies. I wonder what's the score on that now.
JarJarJedi
20d ago
Started a long-run re-read (or, rather, re-listen, as I am using audiobooks for that) of Nero Wolfe series. I've read many of them (some in originals, more in Russian translations) years ago, and decided to go back. So far I got through: Fer-de-Lance, The Rubber Band and The Red Box. Skipped The League of Frightened Men for now as the audiobook wasn't available, plan to fill up later. There's a lot of them spanning 40 years of Stout's lifetime, so I expect it to take quite a while to go through all of them (and of course I'll be taking breaks for other books) but so far the first three had been fun. It's a bit slower paced than our twitter age made us used to, but that's fine. I'll probably also pick up the next Dresden book sometime next month, but Ghost Story was kind of intense (in a good sense) and I don't want to ruin the impression by getting through too much too soon, so I'll let it sit down for a bit yet.
JarJarJedi
23d ago
Having a lot of hardware doesn't mean much alone - Saudi Arabia has lots of hardware but is completely inept at using it, losing to Houthis all the time. Whether or not US is going to involve itself is a big gamble - wars are expensive, but they are also very useful for uniting the nation. And Japan may use this chance to come out of the shadow on WW2 and reassert its role as a normal nation with normal military. Australia is unlikely to pay any substantial role, as far as I understand they're completely cucked by now. I think you're right that economical pressure and corrupting the society is probably more likely ways, but you never know...
JarJarJedi
23d ago
I agree with the point about Trump commonly making things too intense and making fireworks out of things that didn't need to be. It'd be nice if we had a person who is as bold and determined, but more of a diplomat than a showman. But to be honest, he wasn't treated fairly either - the idea of buying the territory, while certainly bold, is not crazy or impossible at all, and Denmark already was well on the way of granting it independence anyway. I'm not sure that'd actually be the best - I think the current solution is actually better for the US, keeping all the benefits and minimum responsibility - but certainly wasn't completely nuts as it was presented.
JarJarJedi
23d ago
America is still America of "Tear down this Wall!" and Hollywood and WW2 and the Berlin Airlift, at least on the right, but Europe isn't the Europe of ancient culture, quest for freedom and resistance to evil. It decided the sins of colonialism are so great that they warrant civilizational suicide, and if the population is not on board with this, it has to be oppressed for their own good. The relationship changed because Europe changed. And tbh, in America right now the relationship with Europe is not bothering anybody much for that exact reason - the right just doesn't see how it can benefit America in its current circumstances (the left wants what Europe wants, but they don't need any allies in that really). Europe is certainly not very willing to defend even itself, let alone help US to do any would police things like getting rid of Iranian nukes. Speaking of which, Europe needs Hormuz open much more than the US does, as far as I can see, but they don't seem to be inclined to do anything substantial about it. So the question is - how much this relationship is working for America anymore?
JarJarJedi
24d ago
The modern first world has a very, very strong norm of borders not moving, for obvious reasons
That's not exactly true. Turkey took North Cyprus in 1974, still keeps it, and now is a NATO member and almost became a EU member. There are a bunch of other changes: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_national_border_changes_%281914%E2%80%93present%29 None as big as Greenland, but it absolutely has been normal to negotiate the possibility, and it has been occasionally also performed by force without serious consequences too (see Turkey).
JarJarJedi
24d ago
But that's nonsense, Denmark knows what the danger is - this territory is far from Denmark and they can't defend it having a whole military as big as one army division (not to talk about the means to sustain long-distance military campaign ). US, OTOH, has the means and the desire to defend it. But they want some goodies for it. Trump wanted to buy the territory wholesale because it sounds cool. But the second best is to get the same benefits of the sovereignty - freedom of movement, freedom of military deployment, freedom of exclusion of others, freedom to mine the resources - without paying any money at all, but Denmark gets to keep the nominal title. The danger is being forced into the same deal by somebody like China - maybe not now, but in 10-15 years - who gives much less attention to European sensibilities than the US does.
Could Trump do it by "asking nicely" - i.e. doing the same in secret rather than in public? Yes, he could, but then he wouldn't be Trump. As I noted here many, many times, the "long time allies" aren't that much of an allies anymore, and become less of an allies every day, so not much loss. Maybe this particular show wasn't, strictly speaking, necessary, but not much lost here.
JarJarJedi
24d ago
I would say there are two types of Good Things - one is indeed costing too much, such as universal unlimited healthcare, or giving free house to every person that doesn't have one. The other is just plain impossible - such as original communism (stateless post-scarcity society where everybody voluntarily works for everybody else's good) or abolishing the police and not having crime rates shoot up. The former ones are somewhat boring, the latter ones, being untethered from any reality on the ground, are visionary and inspirational. That's what people who see being untethered from reality as a benefit flock to. These people are almost impossible to dissuade - since their conviction never rooted in any realistic assumptions, providing them evidence would just convince them you are a hater.
Hasan Piker is every bit as much of a rabid, malevolent extremist as any literal National Socialist,
He is a National Socialist, just for a different nation.
JarJarJedi
25d ago
Maybe they just try to be part of your life, and that's the way they know how to connect?
And the US being more conservative than Europe didn't stop us from allowing our own mass migration that is now destroying the country.
True, but right now the balance is teetering around 50/50 - sometimes the left wins, sometimes the right. If we import millions of people who lean even slightly left off center, the right will have no hope at all. They don't need to be DSA voters - they just need to vote for DSA enablers because what they hear sounds good and close to what they had at home. To get over this, one needs massive trauma like one that Eastern Europeans have - convincing those to have communism would be harder, whatever variety it is. But the rest of Europe I don't think realized what they've done yet.
It's not personally Scott and Eliezer. It's the Oversight Committee (there's always a committee). But who do you think will influence forming the committee and who do you think the members of the committee would look for guidance when faced with tough decisions? Wouldn't it be the folks that convinced the government that the committee is needed in the first place? Or at least folks aligned with them?
He personally may be not. But some more savvy, slick and energetic politician taking cues from him might be. Marx or Gramsci did not personally take power.
If Eliezer does not matter, then it doesn't matter who says what about him. I am fine with this outcome, where whatever he says and does is immaterial and he has no influence on the outcome of things. I am afraid however it's not entirely the case, as a lot of people who are very knowledgeable in the industry and are at least adjacent to its control levers are significantly influenced by him (either personally or by the ideology he embodies). Maybe I am worrying for nothing, I'd be happy with that outcome too.
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