Part of my process this time was telling myself: "you know she's going to win, so you can make some money on it. Plus, if she loses, you'll be happy, so you won't mind the pecuniary loss. Now is the perfect time to finally get into those prediction markets Scott Alexander is always talking about!"
But I couldn't do it. I had initially thought to make myself a killing by betting $10,000, but I found myself feeling too risk-averse. What about $1,000? Or $100? Every time I opened up the necessary apps to start the process, I talked myself out of it.
So did I really think Kamala was going to win? If I wasn't willing to put any skin in the game, did I really believe what I said I believed? I think I did! It feels like I did. But I can't dismiss the possibility that my instincts are better at math than my conscious thoughts. I saved myself thousands of dollars by being pessimistic, skeptical, maybe even a little superstitious. And I'm not entirely sure what to make of that.
Long time reader, first-time poster. I'll spare everyone my political treatise as it's pretty indistinct from that of many people here (classical liberal/small-l libertarian, more anti-Trump's enemies than pro-Trump as such but still ultimately pulling for him, etc.), but I likewise thought Harris had it in the bag and emotionally hedged in her favor to the tune of a cool $1,000 — the largest bet of my life.
Attribute it to the lingering high after Trump's win if you must, but even after having an (admittedly abbreviated) night to sleep on it, I remain oddly unmoved about the loss. Given that I've been known to seethe over lost bets as low as $25 for the better part of an afternoon, that's saying something.
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Long time reader, first-time poster. I'll spare everyone my political treatise as it's pretty indistinct from that of many people here (classical liberal/small-l libertarian, more anti-Trump's enemies than pro-Trump as such but still ultimately pulling for him, etc.), but I likewise thought Harris had it in the bag and emotionally hedged in her favor to the tune of a cool $1,000 — the largest bet of my life.
Attribute it to the lingering high after Trump's win if you must, but even after having an (admittedly abbreviated) night to sleep on it, I remain oddly unmoved about the loss. Given that I've been known to seethe over lost bets as low as $25 for the better part of an afternoon, that's saying something.
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