Glassnoser
11d ago
It is within the margin of error because his model allows for a systemic correlated error across all polls. He just doesn't make any assumptions about the direction of that error. What some people are suggesting he do is assume the direction and size of this error based on very little evidence.
Glassnoser
11d ago
I don't know anything about that or what point you're making.
Glassnoser
12d ago
Why shouldn't he get credit for hedging his model more than others?
Glassnoser
12d ago
It's not useless if it's actually 50-50.
Glassnoser
12d ago
The bias term is the polling error. The reason he treats it as an error rather than a predictable bias is because he doesn't think it's predictable. Assuming it is predictable based on two elections where it was actually pretty different, even if it was in the same direction both times (something that had a 50% chance of happening even if it were completely random) risks over fitting the model.
To elaborate on that, if literally all the polls miss left, you can’t fix that with weighting. In reality, he would have needed to put all of the weight on AtlasIntel and Rasmussen and close to 0 on everything else. This shows that weighting is the wrong approach.
No, it shows there was a polling error. Let's say he follows your advice and the polling error is in favour of the Democrats in the next election. Then his model would have been really really inaccurate.
Of course, if there really is a consistent bias in favour of Republicans, then it would make it more accurate, but there isn't much data to make that assumption.
Glassnoser
12d ago
What's wrong with his method? How could he have improved it?
Let's say he had bet $100,000 at 50-50 odds that he wouldn't roll a six on a die. Then he rolls a six. Does that prove something about his beliefs? It's only profitable in expectation. There is no guarantee of making money.
To take the election example, 50-50 means losing half the time. It's only profitable because, when you do win, you win more than you would have otherwise lost.
If you're not producing a useful, falsifiable prediction then what is the point?
That is just not possible to get from a single sample. You need to look at his track record over many elections.
Glassnoser
12d ago
Do you have a substantive disagreement with his argument?
Glassnoser
12d ago
Is it normal to have dangerous levels of lead in natural water supplies?
Glassnoser
12d ago
I would say almost everyone. I almost exclusively drink tap water.
Glassnoser
12d ago
The two questions I have are
- Did the study convincingly show a causal link?
- Is it a priori plausible that IQ is so sensitive to a naturally varying element which is sometimes found in much greater concentrations?
Glassnoser
12d ago
Just walking around a seeing the number of old people who don't have any teeth makes me think cavaties are actually a massive problem, still, despite water fluoridation. I'm sure it would be much worse without it.
Glassnoser
12d ago
I think it's next Friday.
Glassnoser
12d ago
The original point was never to compare American workers to those across the rest of the world.
My point was that if the rest of the world gets by on much less, then they clearly get paid enough to keep up with basic necessities.
Wages are up, but the price of goods in the United States is outpacing that growth to the point that lower- and middle-class people making decent wages still can barely afford the necessities, e.g., rent, groceries, gas, childcare.
The word "real" means the numbers are adjusted for inflation, so if real wages are going up, that means that nominal wages are increasing faster than the price of goods. This is especially true for lower and middle class people. Their earnings have risen more than those of upper class people. The wages of the poorest have risen the most.
Swing state voters said this was their biggest concern and hope (and believe) Trump and the Republicans will come to the rescue.
If you look at polls that have been done over the last few years, most Americans say they're doing fine but believe most other people are not. These economic problems are completely imaginary. This has been the best period for the increase in the standard of living of the American poor in a very long time,
Glassnoser
14d ago
Who does "she" refer to?
They have kept up with inflation though. (And that's not what a vicious cycle is, by the way) Real wages have been rising. The less you earn, the more they've been rising. The poorest Americans have done extremely well in the last few years.
https://aneconomicsense.org/2024/10/03/real-wages-of-individuals-under-obama-trump-and-biden/
American workers are very rich by world standards. Claiming that they can barely afford necessities, when even the lowest paid among them make several times what people in other countries make or what the average American made a couple generations ago is absurd.
Even someone earning the minimum wage in the US, which is rare, makes far more than most people in the world and makes more than the average person did in the 60's, even after adjusting for the cost of living.
Glassnoser
14d ago
I sincerely hope that in the fullness of time, at least some of these people attempt some level of soul-searching, however abortive and ultimately futile, about why they have been so comprehensively rebuked by the American people.
I don't dispute that some soul searching is in order, but she lost by just 2.3%. You're talking as though Trump won in a landslide.
Glassnoser
15d ago
Very few people actually live paycheque to paycheque though. The US economy has done really well and real wages, especially for the poor are up.
Glassnoser
15d ago
If there is no way of acquiring that knowledge, then those two types of uncertainty are, for all intents and purposes, the same.
Glassnoser
15d ago
A single flip of the coin doesn't tell you that it's weighted though.
Glassnoser
15d ago
There is always going to be some error with polls. Most pollsters fake their results near the end by averaging them with those of other pollswhich does work to make their polls more accurate, but at the cost of making the aggregate of the polls less accurate. Didn't Selzer just not do this? Why should she be ruined for that?
Glassnoser
15d ago
What is TPTB?
Glassnoser
15d ago
It wasn't actually a bad economy though.
Glassnoser
17d ago
Why does it need to be tested for rabies? Why not just assume it had it and act accordingly?
How do you know you didn't just get lucky with a coin flip?
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