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User ID: 1865
Forgotpassword
4mo ago
And I think it's easier to remember the lockdown enthusiasts as overreaching than it is the relatively laissez-faire Trump/Republican approach, regardless of whichever was nominally better at addressing whether the local Octogenerians were sent to early graves slightly or moderately faster than usual. Biden's tribe backed a lot of disruptions to average living that seem like an utterly insane void in hindsight, whilst regardless of how much emphasis you put onto Omicron and the Vaccines for the nullification of COVID the red tribe's stance that it was largely nothingburger seems to have born out.
Forgotpassword
4mo ago
I feel like there's a certain energy of 'oh this is our Jan 6 that the media will have to blow out of proportion' to some of the Pro-Trump responses to this and I very much doubt that the media will fan the flames in the same way as they did Jan 6.
Forgotpassword
4mo ago
A view Trump as unbeatable at this point.
He really isn't on polling, though. The margin of victory in these things isn't that big.
Joe Biden is nominee unless he resigns or gets hit medically. There's no mechanism for removing him. I agree he would not get the nomination if it was a fresh contest, but he has essentially already won it. I'm quite large on Biden at the equivalent of 30c for nom and 10c for presidency for full disclosure, but the window for replacement has largely passed.
Forgotpassword
4mo ago
I kind of agree with their points, but I feel the overton window is sufficiently skewed towards the Left (along with the Left not really being able to understand the sheer breadth of the political spectrum) that these discussions are being had by like 95th percentile Left people and 40th percentile Right People in the grand scheme of things.
Forgotpassword
4mo ago
As in not be nominated for the upcoming cycle? I don't really see any reason for Biden to turf her out, nor is there really a heir apparent. Her best shot to be President is either Biden resignation after winning, or getting essentially handed the nom by an exiting Biden now. It'd be very surprising if she won the nomination in a 2028 primary.
Forgotpassword
4mo ago
Vibe seems to be of Tory collapse more than anybody being especially pro-Labour or invested in their vision. Reform looks like might be indicative of a surge rightwards, but hard to see anything accomplished by Labour in the interim period.
Gaza-driven Politics continue to boggle the mind.
Forgotpassword
4mo ago
I feel like mild facepalm and 'This is going to blow up way out of proportion' were generally the responses, lots of equivocating to the Floyd riots as well.
Forgotpassword
4mo ago
Cultural confusion can also be a factor. Remember a case in Australia where a Transwoman was assaulted by a Tinder hookup, but it turned out the Tinder hookup had only been in the country from his native Pakistan for a couple weeks and seemingly had no cultural awareness of Trans being a thing/how to pick up on it from the profile.
Forgotpassword
4mo ago
Out-and-out homophobia/sexually-motivated violence tends to not get too much coverage in specific incidents since it's perpetrated by certain cultures that are otherwise lionized by progressive actions. 'There were 50 Trans murders this year' looks shocking and something to be addressed, whilst '95% of those were ladyboy prostitutes running afoul of pimps and gay-panic Johns' is something that'll keep individual incidents off the headlines
Forgotpassword
5mo ago
Not generally on the sort of leagues/comps where trans are going to be included.
Forgotpassword
5mo ago
Shameless plug for something I run but https://shuffle.com/sports/novelties/politics/france/french2024 we were first up with markets and been surprisingly heavy betting on it. Super heavy RN action. No US/UK/AUS.
Forgotpassword
5mo ago
Still Catholics have been a fairly large chunk of the population for the majority of the USA's history and include quite a few successful European ethnic groups that have not experienced significant censure. The Supreme Court is 6/9 Catholic (according to Wikipedia I have no idea who's practicing/adherent)
Forgotpassword
5mo ago
Yes but a given petri dish can have better short term outcomes whilst having poor longterm outcomes. At which point the canny punter says 'oh I'm going to go to the other state which didn't eat the seed corn'.
Forgotpassword
5mo ago
Exactly. I'm not anti-tattoos as a concept, but I think they should be tasteful, speak to moments of high personal impact and therefore fairly rare. The random memeification of tattoos shows a fundamentally different life view amongst most people who just shotgun random images onto their skin.
Forgotpassword
5mo ago
If I'd been in the navy for ten years I wouldn't object to having a tattoo to symbolise that status.
This has always been my feeling on tattoos. I'm not against having them, but it feels like an act that should be tied towards a connection of personal gravity and importance. Not just 'lol Milhouse meme'
Forgotpassword
5mo ago
I think people aren't worried about cat burglars
Also lots of these crimes are more crimes of convenience than 'cat burglar drives 2 hours out of their way to a random middle class suburb and conducts elaborate stake-out to steal their TV'. I also genuinely believe that burglary is less lucrative than in previous eras unless you happen to land on a house where there's significant amounts of jewellery. Tech is cheap (and increasingly secured + the expensive bits are mounted flat screen TVs), people hold less cash.
Forgotpassword
5mo ago
Lot of that is the sheer amount of productive US metro areas versus other countries.
In Australia for a lot of professional roles you've only really got a serious choice between Melbourne, Sydney and maaaaybe Brisbane. The first 2 of which have 10x income multiples for a reasonable house and the later racing quickly to catch up to them. Those equivalent markets do exist in the USA but they're largely focused around the world class cities like NYC and San Fran. Still plenty of scope to pick a mid-tier city and get a reasonable property for 3-4x income.
Forgotpassword
5mo ago
Yeah, most of the Asian Tigers were driven by what would be considered dictators in charge and have since had larger struggles when going towards manifesting democracy in the 80s/90s
Forgotpassword
5mo ago
Unless you're going to take a decade-dated one at which point you get annihilated on fees, the whipsaw effect of a meme stock run by somebody with a history of overpromising random in-vogue ideas makes it hard to leverage against.
Forgotpassword
5mo ago
Drukpa is a DR shitposter. In future, trust your instincts with regards to these things. Leftist Berlin hipsters are not singing "Ausländer raus" in techno clubs, please. I'm sure young men are in some of the more extremist burschenschaften, but that's a rather different milieu (and there is, in any case, nothing new about that).
Yeah Drukpa's been posting random overlaid stuff like that on techno club videos for a while. I think the overton window is shifting a little, but Drukpa not a great souce for it.
Forgotpassword
5mo ago
I don't know a ton of specifics around Cocoa but my understanding was that it was particularly resistant to automation which is why there hasn't really been any agribusiness trying to tackle it.
Forgotpassword
5mo ago
Haiti gets hundreds of millions in US aid every year. Straight up annexation would likely be cheaper and more effective in the longrun.
Forgotpassword
5mo ago
I thought there was still some agricultural slavery for labor-intensive crops in areas with very low HDI. Cocoa a fairly major example, I believe. I do agree that for most factory jobs that 'slavery' is an exaggeration, and people just don't understand how shit subsistence agriculture is as an existence to compete against making phones and sneakers
Yes but her opponent has been competing against women for years with good-but-not-great results and an 11% KO rate. There's ample proof she's not some insane worldbeating physical force.
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