FirmWeird
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Extension du domaine de la lutte. The progressive ideal of re-distributing wealth is at least logically possible, but it's fundamentally impossible to re-distribute everyone a big house in the best locations and a high status mate. If being better than others is essential to happiness, then perhaps that is humanity's punishment for eating the forbidden fruit.
There is a vast gulf between "viable access to family formation" and "elite mansion with access to the most desirable partner". It isn't really arguable that modern society is failing to provide the former to a far larger portion of the population than it did in the past. The fact that "absolute living standards" means that we now have far more convenient and easy to use sports betting applications and larger flatscreen TVs doesn't really address the serious material concerns that a lot of people are facing.
At the same time, a lot of the visible concentrations of wealth in modern society are nakedly and undeniably antisocial. Take a look at some of President Trump's recent pardons - several of them have gone to people who defrauded the government or the greater populace. When people get angry at Joseph Schwartz, they're not envious that he's so much richer and better than him - they're furious that he cut costs in a way that lead to the death of their relatives while simultaneously avoiding paying tax. His wealth was explicitly gained in a way that harmed the rest of society, and yet our current system ensured he largely escaped consequences while the people who sued him and won in court received no compensation. While that's just one of the more prominent examples from recent news, you don't have to look particularly hard to find all sorts of examples of people profiting by dumping negative externalities on the public.
I think the real signal that is being pointed to by this kind of comment is that women find being subordinate in male dominance hierarchies to be an unattractive trait in a potential mate. At the same time, men will often say that being overweight is an unattractive trait in a potential mate - but overweight women still get laid. Men prefer virgins, but non-virginal women get married all the time and there are plenty of virgins who are virgins simply because no men would want to be with them for other reasons. Living off roadkill while living in a shack is a much bigger hit to a man's desirability than having a boss, and that's a trade most women are willing to make - but if you're a woman who believes you deserve only the absolute best of men, you're going to want a man who does not have to adopt a submissive position in a dominance hierarchy while also being a wealthy provider.
This is an absurd position. Israel has had nukes for ~30 years. Tehran still exists and Israeli nukes have never been used.
The consequences Israel would face for nuking Tehran are worse than the costs imposed by having Iran continue to exist. The optimal strategy for Israel would be to trick some other country into invading Iran for them, and I think the Israelis agree with me on that front.
There was also no conflict between Israel and Iran under the shah. The entire reason this conflict exists is because the Iranian regime wants to kill all the Jews.
The shah who ran an incredibly authoritarian and repressive police state so that western powers could continue to extract Iranian oil without having to share the profits equitably with the Iranians? That shah? The Iranians have a lot of extremely valid reasons to oppose the state of Israel, and collapsing it down to "they just want to kill all the jews" is lazy thinking that gives you a worse and less-clear picture of the world.
Do you believe that Israel is the worst country in the world in terms of being oppressive, trampling on human rights, etc.?
I don't make any special claims on that front - there's probably some truly terrible microstate out there which is worse. The gulf monarchies are probably pretty nasty to their imported workers too - but I will say that Israel is the worst country in the world that is subsidised by my tax dollars and power structures in western countries. That ethnicity-exclusive death penalty law is particularly horrifying.
the holocaust
Nazis killed a lot of jews and other people they considered undesirable (homosexuals, gypsies, etc).
10/7
Hamas attacked Israel and took a number of hostages in an attempt by Yahya Sinwar to provoke a broader conflict which would destroy Israel's image in the rest of the world and force them into a fight with numerous other powers which they weren't quite ready for.
Usually this is a good way to examine the split between the two.
Actually, the best way to examine the split between the two is to just ask me. On that note, I will cop to being an antisemite according to the definitions adopted by my current government - I believe apartheid is bad and that destroying villages in other countries to settle the ruins is akin to the nazi Lebensraum policy. Along with my opposition to apartheid and race-exclusive death penalty laws, I and the majority of other left-wing people qualify as antisemites under the IHRA definition. I just don't think that definition is particularly useful.
Moreover, if I was actually an antisemite I wouldn't need to hide it here - you can be an open antisemite and still post here, after all. I don't accuse people of being secret racists because they believe that IQ has a heritable component, and I believe that principle should apply to most other discussions and topics on here. As I've said, my opposition to Israel is in no way due to the Jewishness of Israel - if you simply raceswapped every single Israeli jew with Jamaican Rastas my feelings would be identical.
It's not particularly difficult to simply strap a short-range weapons system onto a ship.
This story is from 2019 - if it was so easy to defeat the Shaheds, why isn't the Strait full of US navy ships easily taking those drones out of the sky and securing freedom of navigation?
This remains to be seen!
True - I actually agree with you here, though doubtless for different reasons.
You'll have to forgive me for believing that it is a viable answer to Shahed drones when I have seen footage of Shahed drones being shot down by guns in a conflict happening right now.
And what happened to the US embassy after that? I'm not claiming that systems like the C-RAM can't destroy those drones, but that they aren't an economically sustainable way to do so. Yes, you can shoot down a bunch of shaheds - but if there are enough of them they will get through, and the cost of making enough of them is lower than the cost of the defensive weapon system. At the same time, they can provide extra targets for the kind of expensive defensive system required to deal with nastier missiles.
If the US has robust and cost-effective anti-Shahed defence systems, why are their troops working from home in hotels? Why have they abandoned so many of their military bases in the region? Why isn't the US navy proudly sailing through the strait, drones defeated? Why is petroleum infrastructure in the gulf region blowing up so frequently? If what you're claiming is true the world would look very different today.
No defense is 100% effective, and I am not claiming that. I am claiming the general idea that there is no way to counter Shaheds is overblown. The Ukrainians do it on the cheap all the time.
The main issue is not that Shaheds cannot be stopped - the issue is that they cannot be stopped in an economically viable fashion. The cost of anti-Shahed deterrence weapons is significantly higher than the cost of simply making more shaheds. As for Ukraine, I'm uncertain - I don't trust much of the information coming out of that warzone, and Russia has been making a lot of alterations and changes to their Gerans (did you see that new Jet Geran they announced recently?). If there's compelling and verifiable evidence that the Ukrainians are managing to deal with Russian drone warfare, I'll believe it - but that evidence is probably going to have to come in the form of them retaking all the territory they've lost so far.
The US transited two destroyers through the strait, so...if the drones were so scary, why did that happen?
Did they? I've heard conflicting reports about that incident, and the last I heard they ran away.
Based on the Houthis' experience, it seems pretty clear that torpedoes ("suicide drones"), ballistic missiles, and conventional missiles are a greater threat to shipping.
I agree with this. I'm sorry if I gave the impression I was advocating for some kind of Shahed-exclusive force - I've always been thinking about them in the context of a broader military package which includes the things you've just mentioned.
while to my knowledge China hasn't produced any Shaheds.
They're selling them on Alibaba - if you've got a spare 50k lying around you could buy one right now. They're advertised as ideal for spraying pesticides or taking photos for land surveying (not sure if they actively advertise them as suicide attack drones).
Oh, then kindly identify two hospitals which (1) Israel blew up; and (2) were NOT being used for offensive purposes against Israel. Please provide cites and links for your claims.
Wikipedia actually has a giant list of them - https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Attacks_on_health_facilities_during_the_Gaza_war
While it is actually extremely difficult to prove a negative, there's no real verifiable evidence that these hospitals were actually secret terror bases. Wikipedia covers these allegations as well, and for the majority of allegations the evidence provided is "classified Israeli military intelligence that cannot be made public" - i.e. completely worthless, because if they did have that evidence they would doubtless release it.
Similarly, we can actually point at a very consistent Israeli pattern of attacking medical and aid workers - are you familiar with the murder of Hind Rajab? You're more than welcome to make the argument that the five year old girl was actually a secret Hamas military asset, but I don't think that'll get you very far.
I cannot imagine hating jews so
You might want to work on your cognitive flexibility then - I can imagine hating jews that much pretty easily, it isn't particularly hard. More importantly, I actually have to imagine it - I get along just fine with the torah jews and other antizionist Jews. When I object to the murder of Hind Rajab, the ethnicity of the people doing the shooting of young girls doesn't really enter into the calculus. If they were Japanese Shinto practitioners, I'd feel just as strongly about what they did! Israel is singled out not because it is the Jewish State consisting of Jews practicing Judaism, but because it is in large part funded by western power structures and has a direct negative impact on people.
I cannot imagine hating the jews so much that you support adversaries that want you and your way of life to end and die
I don't believe the Iranians are adversaries that want me and my way of life to end, and I've gotten along just fine with Shia Iranian coworkers in the past. There's been far more hostility to my way of life as a result of the countless wars in the Middle East that have been fought for Israeli interests.
And perhaps most importantly, I don't understand why all the anti-Jew posters can't just hate Israel and want Iran to lose at the same time.
You really should work on that - it isn't hard at all to understand why people who don't like Israel would want Israel's chief regional competitor to remain strong and capable of causing problems for them. The only reason Iran is a problem for people in the West is that our governments are helplessly tied to Israel - the Strait of Hormuz was free for everyone to transit until Israel forced the US into this war (as per the claims of notorious anti-semites Marco Rubio, J.D. Vance and Donald Trump).
Gish Gallop,
This isn't reddit anymore buddy. You have to actually make an argument if you want to convince anyone - come back when you're capable of participating in an adult conversation.
Defensive. Stance.
Of the two approaches referred to as the Samson option (threatening europe and asia for failing to defend them or just simply nuking the entire region if they were about to fall) none of them qualify as defensive. They serve solely to make the rest of the world suffer if the Israeli regime falls. That's not defensive, just spiteful - and further evidence that Israel needs to be disarmed for the sake of the entire world.
Iran has been engaged in terrorist attacks against Israel for literally decades. Now also engaging in terrorist attacks on other non-Israel neighbors.
Israel has been responsible for far more terror attacks than Iran. How much white phosphorus has Iran used against civilian populations?
Samson is a defensive stance,
lol, lmao
Fundamentally Iran is a nation that is running around punching people in the face.
I'm surprised, I thought you would have kept up with news from the Middle East if you're going to talk about it with that level of confidence. This may come as a shock, but Israel is currently invading Lebanon, deploying white phosphorus on civilians, demolishing homes, blowing up hospitals and now moving settlers in to build houses on their newly acquired living space. They are in fact punching people in the face, right now! They have been punching people in the face for several years, and they launched the first strike on Iran.
After they closed the strait, the many nations of the world made it clear that there was no such custom, so Trump closing the strait is perfectly in line with precedent.
Wasn't the precedent already set by the US in Cuba and Venezuela?
I don’t see why else they’d have such a fixation on nuclear power in the most oil rich region of the world and while being sanctioned for having nuclear energy.
I'm not a supporter of nuclear power but this is actually extremely easy to answer - oil does not replenish itself on a timescale relevant to human life. If I have a gigantic pile of savings but no income, it would actually make a lot of sense for me to try and find a way to support myself before that gigantic pile of savings runs out.
Iran is far more likely to use it, sell it, or cause problems than any current nuclear actor and the inability to recognize this is simply horrifying.
I don't think this is true - ever heard of the Samson option? I'd trust the Iranians with a nuke far more than Israel.
If you're going to discuss this stuff with me on here, please do me the courtesy of reading what I write
I did read your post, and I explicitly said I was contradicting your view. I am not unaware of the contents of your post, I just disagree with it. To wit:
Shahed drones are very vulnerable to gunfire, which is cheap. (I assure you the US military has lots of guns).
The kind of guns which are capable of shooting down Shaheds are not going to be standard issue for commercial shipping vessels. How, exactly, are you going to outfit the commercial shipping fleet with all the guns and rockets required to shoot down these drones while simultaneously engaging in an active fight with the Chinese navy on the other side of the country? And if it is the US intervening, remember that the US navy is going to be tied down in Iran and the Middle East as well. All that these drones need to do to finish their mission in this specific case is make commercial traffic unviable, which your proposed solution doesn't actually prevent.
Moreover, we actually have an example of a weapons system used to shoot down shahed drones in the field - the C-RAM system used to protect the US Embassy in Baghdad. The US Embassy in Baghdad has been abandoned, and the C-RAM system failed to provide adequate protection - I'm not sure due to the difficulty of getting footage, but I believe it was actually destroyed by a drone. You'll have to forgive me for not believing this was a viable answer to shahed drones when I have seen footage of it failing to defend against shahed drones in a conflict happening right now.
The US military has now acquired and used very cheap laser-guided rockets, which are within the ballpark range of the cost of a Shahed, specifically for using against drones like the Shahed.
Ok, so how many vessels are transiting the strait right now? If the US has an economic and worthwhile answer to these drones, why haven't they used them to open the Strait of Hormuz? We have a perfect, real-life test case for this technology and what we actually see is the US navy giving up, unable to prevent the Iranians from interdicting or destroying commercial traffic. Furthermore, what are the actual economics of these cheap, laser-guided rockets? Do they rely on components or parts that have to be shipped from China? Is there a manufacturing base capable of supplying enough of them to outpace Iran, China and Russia's production of Shahed/Shahed derivatives?
Such drones do not exist, and frankly never really existed.
Au contraire - the shahed drone is itself one of these drones. This isn't because the drones are particularly cheap (although the shahed is both cheap and easy to manufacture), but because the US MIC is fantastically corrupt and so their interceptor missiles are extremely expensive, far more so than the drones themselves. These interceptors are also reliant on materials parts that are sourced from China, who presumably won't be selling them to their military adversaries (yes, the US can source and process themselves - you'll just have to spend a decade or so getting the infrastructure required up and running. Good luck!)
None of this is to deny your point about insurance, although it is likely that insurance would go completely insane just by declaring the area a no-go zone; the Japanese government would likely have to requisition/purchase shipping or subsidize insurance. Similarly, it's undoubtedly true that China is a major industrial power. I am far from convinced that this would be a good way to wage an anti-shipping campaign, but China has a ton of industry, so even if it is the worst possible way to wage an anti-shipping campaign, they might be able to make it work!
This is in fact the main point I am making. Is it possible to defend against this kind of attack? Absolutely. But is it possible to do so in a way that's sustainable and doesn't prevent the Chinese from achieving their goal of preventing commercial traffic? No. That's all they need to do - render commercial shipping unviable. There are all sorts of unique options available to them - I've heard that they're working on some really cool underwater drones as well, which would be even more fun to shoot down and interdict. But the point remains that the Chinese would be able to prevent Japan from resupplying in any real way while the Japanese would be unable to return the favour. Even if I just abandon the argument about military effectiveness to you entirely, the relative economic impacts on both parties from this kind of strategy is too much to overcome.
My basic point here is that there's a reason that Shaheds have supplemented more conventional weapons systems like ballistic and antiship missiles, rather than replacing them. And similarly that war is hard.
I agree - it's just that the Chinese have both, and more importantly the economic and industrial base required to sustain modern warfare for far longer than Japan.
If the US fleet and the Chinese fleet fought on an infinite featureless plain the US fleet would win.
Actually nobody would win - all the ships would just fall over and be unable to move. But the problem is that the industrial base which made the US navy has since been shipped off to China, who, according to the Pentagon, are capable of manufacturing 236 ships to every 1 produced by the US. In any kind of long or sustained conflict, China wins hands down.
It's possible that the answer is "no" but the fact that that is the question should tell you a lot about the relative power of the two countries.
The problem is that the reason Taiwan is valuable is the TSMC manufacturing plants, which can be easily destroyed the moment Taiwan looks to be in danger. If China wanted, they could in fact take over Taiwan - especially with the US tied down in Iran. The problem is that taking over Taiwan with military force renders it almost completely worthless, which is why the optimal strategy for the Chinese is to just wait for the US' decline to progress further and then take it bloodlessly.
The real argument against the pee tape is that we actually know where it came from - 4chan's /pol/ board. One of the more prominent Nevertrump conservatives, Rick Wilson, was relentlessly bullied over his son's memoirs which detailed his watersports fetish. Somebody on 4chan made up a bunch of salacious stories and sent them to Rick Wilson, because he wanted to see how desperate they were for dirt on Trump - and then he saw that information showing up in the dossier.
But possibly I am missing some obvious options here.
China has access to the same drone technology as Iran, and that's assuming they don't have even more advanced models, which I find highly likely (especially given their close relationship with Russia). Deterring commercial shipping is substantially easier than deterring enemy navies, and entirely possible with drones - especially with drones that cost significantly less to manufacture than the interceptor missiles used to shoot them down, which means China can simply force Japan to use up their entire supply of interceptors. If the interception rate is anywhere below 100% the effects on shipping insurance costs will be ruinous already. Making commercial trade with Japan unviable is infinitely easier for China to do than it is for Japan to strike back in the same way, and at the same time Japan is far more dependent upon foreign imports. China's resource base, trade networks (good luck interdicting trade between China and Russia from Japan) and massive industrial/manufacturing advantage mean that any real long term conflict is simply a matter of time. Even if you make ludicrously charitable assumptions regarding Japan's military capabilities, China's utterly massive economic advantages are enough to make up for them.
I'm not familiar with the concept of "perfect sphere world" so I'm not going to really comment on that aspect - but I will point out that North Korea and Russia are deeply connected with China and will have zero problems with China using their airspace to attack an American vassal state. At the same time, if you talk about America getting involved you have to realise that the pivot to Asia never actually happened - and the US looks like it'll be tied down in the Middle East for a long while yet, in a conflict which is destroying their munition/interceptor stocks and causing immense economic damage. If the US puts together a force capable of challenging China, they have to abandon Europe, Israel and the Middle East - and I don't think Israel is going to allow that (looking forward to seeing renewed press coverage of Trump's ties to Epstein after he tried to pull out of the Iran war again!).
Is Japan actually capable of preventing China from interdicting traffic to their rear as well? I don't think JP air defence is good enough to prevent China from making the rear approach a logistical impossibility too, even if you ignore their navy.
Maybe this was planned with Iran as well, and they fucked up and happened to kill them. Given he's literally said that most of the replacements they had in mind are also dead, it is quite possible they had a plan like this in mind, "we take out your internal rivals and you be more friendly to us" but accidently struck the coup faction and that's why there was no one friendly to take charge and temper the Iranian response.
My understanding of the situation is actually just that the moment Israel knows who the US is trying to negotiate with they immediately kill them - they don't want a ceasefire, because it is in their best interest for the US to get drawn into a horrible quagmire and put boots on the ground in Iran. Several officials have just flat out said that they have to hide the details from the Israelis, and even the new (and already dead) ceasefire was arranged without Israel's knowledge to stop them from fucking it up (so they just kept on bombing Lebanon instead to make sure the war continues).
Or hear me out - Iran actually got scared that their national hymn will be the theme of the Flintstones.
Nope. They've reclosed the strait and returned to war because Israel failed to abide by the terms of the ceasefire - I don't see how this could happen if they were actually intimidated into surrender by Trump's threat to blow up more civilian infrastructure.
This does nothing to change their position - Japan is far more dependent upon sea-based imports than China, and any kind of escalation will result in them hurting themselves far more than they hurt China. If China was somehow completely cut off from the sea, they'd still have access to extensive land-based trade networks, including Russian fossil fuel supplies. If Japan is cut off from sea-based trade, which China would be able to do far more easily, they have no other options.
No, not really. Does Japan have a network of defensive and offensive emplacements that had been put in place over decades? Do they have a massive indigenous drone program that does not rely on foreign imports? As a society, are they tightly integrated into the global economy (and hence dependent upon foreign imports) or are they mostly self sufficient? Is their primary foe on the other side of the world with an anemic manufacturing base, or is it directly adjacent to them and with a huge domestic manufacturing base? In another world, Japan could close the south China sea without any problems - but not in this one.
I'm sure that Primary School missile struck got a bunch of new ones to start chanting it - after all, the Official Story was that the Iranians hate their government and were just waiting to rise up against it, which very much has not happened. But even beyond that, do you think that they just started chanting Death to America for no reason, completely unprovoked? There's a long history of nasty US behavior in the region that does stretch back decades.
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My opinion is that the increased immigration flows and financial pressure on housing and cost of living have much more to do with the collapse in fertility rates than being free and educated. That said, the topic is so complicated that it could be a thread by itself - so I'll just say that I think the increase in relative costs of living is a direct result of policies solely pursued due to that inequality and that is what is decreasing fertility.
First of all, this is not just "the aesthetics" of the modern wealthy. What Schwartz did directly harmed society in exchange for personally enriching him, and this isn't some isolated case. Look through the list of pardons that Trump has handed out and you can see countless cases of this kind of banal and venal corruption. On top of that, look at people like Rick Scott, who defrauded the government and then used his ill-gotten wealth to get elected. There's no law of the universe which says that people need to put up with this odious nonsense, and this flagrant looting of the nation is prime tinder for a nasty political blowback. What kind of vision of the future are you offering when you say that things are going to be terrible forever and rich criminals will never face justice?
Moreover, the idea that this isn't a solvable problem is just completely false. Hell, all of those pardons could be fixed by the simple expedient of not allowing the president to pardon people in exchange for personal financial gain. It doesn't have to be like this and there are numerous governments throughout history and the world that have prevented this kind of behavior and stopped it.
Actually, the recent wave of warehouse burnings was directly inspired by his shooting.
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