BoneDrained
No bio...
User ID: 2683
BoneDrained
15d ago
Not all votes are accounted for yet, so some (but not all) of that 15M drop will shrink.
BoneDrained
15d ago
She outperformed Joe Biden in zero counties in the entire nation
There's a map at https://www.washingtonpost.com/elections/interactive/2024/11/05/compare-2020-2024-presidential-results/?itid=ms_1 which is indeed mostly red, but there are a few blue arrows, e.g., in Colorado.
BoneDrained
18d ago
in office while three Supreme Court judges died
Only Ginsburg died while he was in office. Scalia died under Obama. Kennedy retired and is still alive; Trump appointed Kennedy's former clerks Gorsuch and Kavanaugh.
Allexis Telia Ferrell ate a cat in public in Ohio. However, she was born in the United States, and this seems more likely a mental health problem than a cultural difference.
BoneDrained
7mo ago
the one country in the world where a man is free to shoot tannerite in full auto
While the USA is unusual, it is not unique. Check out Yemen where you can buy non-antiques. Before moving there, consider the tradeoff in stability and safety!
It's conceivable she has Palestinian ancestry. Her ex-husband is also listed as non-hispanic white—so while this was an interfaith marriage, it wasn't interracial. Or maybe Texas is rife with data entry errors.
BoneDrained
9mo ago
Consistent with her statement on her 2022 plea, it's possible she was naturalized: perhaps in 2018, after three years of not quite living in marital union. Her prior convictions would count against her, but there seems to be some discretion. Enrique's mother Walli talks about Moreno being deportable for not putting Enrique on Samuel's birth certificate, but I think she's talking about in 2017. Walli seems confused about legal matters.
BoneDrained
9mo ago
For the case of Asian flush, I enjoyed reading https://dynomight.net/alcohol/ which has links to specific genes.
BoneDrained
9mo ago
This isn't the only study on this topic. Clearly schizophrenia is not the main cause of gender dysphoria, and this may just be a case of everything is correlated.
One of my early hypotheses to explain the use of "male aliases" on her criminal record was that her psychotic episodes involved both crime and dysphoria. It turns out this was doubly incorrect: she didn't use male aliases, and didn't have dysphoria.
BoneDrained
9mo ago
There's speculation that he's adopted. His mother, Walli Carranza, is a Rabbi.
BoneDrained
9mo ago
There have been two recent high profile shootings. On February 11th, J. Genesse Moreno opened fire at Joel Osteen's megachurch in Houston. On February 14th, nearly two dozen were injured at the Super Bowl victory parade in Kansas City. Even beyond the typical reaction to gun violence, both have culture war angles. But the details of the cases and the media coverage have been different.
Moreno was born in 1987 during the El Salvador civil war. A quarter of the Salvadoran population emigrated; half of them came to the US, where they were granted Temporary Protected Status (TPS) and allowed to work.
There's been a lot of interest in her name and sex. Why did she call herself Jeffrey? Was she transgender like the Nashville shooter? Men commit homicide at about seven times the rate as women, so we're surprised when we hear about the exceptions. She struggled with her mental health and there is some overlap between schizophrenia and gender dysphoria.
When there's significant culture war over an issue, it can be hard to decide what to trust. When the media reports there is "no evidence" that she's trans, what does that really mean? Here, the plain meaning is correct. Jeffrey is her birth name, which is unusual but not bizarre. The media repeatedly claims that she uses multiple aliases, but this seems to just be her name. Sometimes she goes by her middle name. She's consistently used female pronouns, maintained a feminine appearance, and one of her crimes was theft of women's cosmetics. I don't know old she was when she left El Salvador, but she was born in a country with ten times the homicide rate of the United States.
Her public arrest record starts when she turned 18 in 2005. She consistently pleaded guilty for reductions to misdemeanors. In 2005, she was sentenced to 20 days for failure to stop. In 2010, she was sentenced concurrently to 180 days for assault; 30 days for theft; and 75 days for evading arrest.
Conviction of two or more misdemeanors could result in the loss of TPS status and removal. However, she was able to stay in the USA, and may have later gained permanent residency from her marriage. In her 2022 plea she claimed to be a US citizen.
The vast majority of Salvadorans were Catholic, but at some point Morena converted to Islam. Despite the controversy of interfaith marriage, in 2015, while working at the Spaghetti Warehouse in Houston, she met her future husband: Enrique Carranza III. He was Jewish with a criminal history of attempted sexual assault on a child. His mother says this was a statutory rape case, and the girl was 14 (the registry says 12) with a fake driver's license indicating 17.
After their marriage in September 2015, Enrique reports she became abusive. She was on medication for schizophrenia and lupus, but stopped during her pregnancy and they became estranged. In November 2016, she gave birth three months prematurely. On her son Samuel's birth certificate, she reported the father as deceased. Perhaps due to postpartum psychosis, she was involuntarily hospitalized.
Enrique found out about the birth, but their relationship did not improve. He accused her of neglecting their child. They accused each other of making threats. Their marriage continued to deteriorate, and Enrique moved to Florida in 2021, where he failed to register as a sex-offender and is currently in prison. Moreno dismissed her lawyer, choosing to represent herself, but the divorce was eventually settled in 2022, with her retaining custody of their son.
In December 2023, she bought an AR-15 style rifle and put a Palestine decal on it. She had been making anti-semetic Telegram posts and fought with her neighbors.
On February 11th, she brought her son to the church. Under a trench coat, she had her AR-15; in a backpack a .22 caliber rifle. Brandishing the AR-15, she entered past an unarmed guard and fired in a hallway. Two off-duty police, working security at the church, fired multiple shots. Moreno died at the scene, falsely claiming she had a bomb. A man was hit in the hip, and is recovering. Her son was shot in the head, with uncertain and likely poor outcome. Because of the lack of confirmation that Moreno shot her son, I assume he was shot by the off-duty police.
There's calls to change Texas gun laws, such as adding a red flag law. People are mostly focusing on her mental health, but depending on how Rahimi goes, it may make more sense to focus on her conviction of a violent misdemeanor.
A few days later, after the victory parade in Kansas City, a group of teens got into an argument and started shooting in the general direction of each other. At least a dozen people were shot, including Elizabeth Galvan, who died. Channeling their football heroes, the crowd tackled a suspected shooter, and three were arrested: a man, who was released, and two juveniles who remain in custody.
Their names and pictures won't be released until they are charged with felonies, but many are invoking Coulter's Law to explain the delay. Governor Parson called them thugs; Mayor Lucas called this a racist dog whistle, confirming the race of the juveniles.
Mass shootings similar to this happen almost every day. You can look at the gun violence archive and see the repeated tragedy of young black men unable to resolve their disputes, reaching for their guns, and shooting without aiming. They don't make the news, and our picture of gun violence is distorted. As the Times reports:
The shooting was news around the world because of when and where it unfolded. But in many respects, the circumstances were all too familiar in a country where guns and gun violence are pervasive
“If this exact same thing happened in a gas station or in a neighborhood or in another community, no one would be talking about it,” said James Densley, a professor of criminal justice at Metro State University in Minnesota who studies youth violence.
Kansas City has been enduring a lot of that bloodshed. The city has one of the highest murder rates in the nation, and last year 182 people were killed, surpassing a high mark set in 2020. City officials say many of the killings were attributed to arguments, the same cause that investigators cited in the shooting at the Super Bowl parade.
Fani Willis is the Fulton County District Attorney. Her office, led by Nathan Wade, is prosecuting Trump and many others under Georgia RICO for election interference. Normally we would expect Trump to claim someone in the court had an improper relationship, but this time it was his co-defendant Michael Roman who claimed that Willis appointed Wade because of their romantic relationship and profited from it.
There had been calls for her to step aside to avoid the possibility of being disqualified, which would greatly delay the trial. She had already been disqualified for her handling of Burt Jones, where she fund-raised for his opponent.
Willis is not stepping aside, but she has now admitted to a personal relationship with Wade. About the facts in the case, Willis has at least two defenses. First, Wade may have paid for some of their vacations, but Willis paid for at least one $700 plane ticket for Wade. Second, Wade claims the personal relationship did not start until 2022.
The press, while stressing that these problems don't invalidate the facts of the case against Trump, has not been kind to Willis. This case has already been going for a long time, and seems unlikely to even start before the election:
- In October 2021: Wade agrees to be special prosecutor.
- November 1st, 2021: Wade is sworn in.
- November 2nd, 2021: Wade files for divorce.
- November 3rd, 2021: Wade begins work, charging 8 hours.
- November 5th, 2021: Wade continues, charging 24 hours.
- August 14th, 2023: Trump and 18 others are indicted.
- January 8th, 2024: Roman files motion to dismiss.
- January 30th, 2024: Wade reaches agreement in divorce to avoid testifying about Willis.
- February 2nd, 2024: Willis and Wade publicly admit to their relationship.
BoneDrained
9mo ago
Carroll claims that Elle fired her because Trump disputed her claim about Trump assaulting her. The rape/assault accusation came first; it wasn't a later development. Even before her The Cut article, her income from Elle was in decline, and she's now finding more success at substack.
Carroll says one of the primary reasons she hadn't come forward earlier is that she blamed herself. On reflection, she says going into the changing room with Trump and lingerie was stupid. She agrees with your "who goes into" disbelief, but that isn't an excuse for assault.
She lampshades her telling, admitting it's inconceivable that Bergdorf would have a floor vacant of customers and staff. I don't know whether her account is credible, but the level of evidence seems underwhelming.
BoneDrained
9mo ago
Carroll testified that her tights were not removed or ripped. He allegedly forced a kiss on her, and I don't see any description of flipping her around.
She said she was wearing four inch heels; I don't know if that would improve or worsen the angles.
BoneDrained
9mo ago
From the court records, it seems that Carroll's lawyers introduced the floor layout into evidence, but I don't see how to download them. Obviously they didn't believe them to be exculpatory.
I don't know much about fashion, but this dress seems similar to Carroll's dress. Different color, but similar buttons, pockets, etc. Maybe a different cut, as this looks a little short to wear with just tights? This is a Spring 1995 fashion show, so it was plausibly introduced in 1995, and not available in 1994.
BoneDrained
9mo ago
The claim seems to be that the dress was not made in 1994, at the early end of her time range. She had already shifted to probably 1996, because she didn't think her friend Lisa, in whom she had confided, would travel to Mar-a-Lago knowing about this attack.
I'm having trouble finding any precise claims about when this Donna Karan dress was made, so my assumption is that it was made in 1995.
It seems there should be some website going in deep with details of the 1996 Bergdorf floor layout, the sizes and colors the bodysuit were available in, etc. My search is failing me.
BoneDrained
10mo ago
I found the tone of the "banned video" very off-putting. From the parody "20th Century HOAX" intro to the incessant claim that Zyklon B was exclusively used as a "LIFESAVING measure to keep the prisoners HEALTHY and FREE of typhus." My guess is that the intended audience is not a reasonable person seeking the truth, but those who already deny the holocaust and are searching for arguments.
In a narrow sense, the death-toll of 78,000 is more truthful than the 1946 Soviet estimate of 1.5 million, but the overall message of the video is extremely dishonest.
BoneDrained
10mo ago
Southern states used that power to remove Lincoln from the ballot.
At the time, the state did not print ballots; parties did. There was no "the" ballot to remove Lincoln from. You didn't typically fill out your ballot for president, but deposited a pre-printed one.
Ballots named the electors, which is probably why the 14th amendment disqualifies electors. In these southern states, there weren't electors publicly declaring Republican support, so the party didn't print ballots in them.
The southern legislatures could have directly chosen the electors, but that is not the process they used.
It's just really tough to argue that the person who holds the office of President of the United States is not an officer of the United States.
This argument seems plausible to me. Perhaps Gorsuch would go for it.
BoneDrained
10mo ago
When Scott wrote that the NYT article would make his job more difficult, I was sympathetic but curious. It's easy to find his previous handle yvain and his old blog and then his personal site where he has his name. Despite his poor op-sec of not making a hard break between identities, patients couldn't easily google his name to find his somewhat controversial postings. All was well until adding Scott's full name to Metz's article did more harm than good.
The current case isn't quite so clear. Starting with Alice and Chloe's real names, you quickly (without archive.org) find references to Nonlinear. But you have to put a few things together to connect with the current controversy.
Even without doxxing, it may be awkward when Alice/Chloe apply for their next job in the EA sphere. Upon seeing their résumés, the interviewer might ask, "was your experience at infamous Nonlinear as bad as Alice's?"
Of course, the reputations of Ben / Kat / Emerson are much more directly impacted. I think the common theme is that they didn't know (or care) about the normal standards for investigative journalism / employment. Not that I would've done much better, but spirited rejection of Chesterton's fences to escape local optima probably makes things worse.
Roko was banned for revealing Alice and Chloe's real names. It's not hard to figure out their names, but I'll refrain from revealing them, to prevent the search engines from linking them to this.
I want to highlight this comment, contrasting the nonlinear environment with normal professional employment. Erica had the insight that Alice and Chloe might be "exploited immigrants," and indeed they are from Germany and Denmark.
Chloe is still active in EA, with a similar job title, but hopefully her current job is lower stress and more aligned with her interests. Her boyfriend from Puerto Rico has also continued in the EA space and has several posts on EA forums.
Alice has been deleting some of her online activity, and possibly changing her name. She frequents vegan restaurants and continues to be poly (amazingly, with prediction markets).
BoneDrained
1yr ago
The most objective misrepresentation would be the size of his triplex penthouse: is it 30k ft² or 11k ft²? The dispute starts with this Forbes article, which tells us that Trump occupies the top three floors along with his sole neighbor who has 3,368 ft². Trump had been claiming 33k or 30k ft², but the city records show only 10,996. This does seem like a large discrepancy, and the author doesn't have an explanation other than perhaps a large amount of mechanical space.
When looking at the details of Trump Tower, the floors are numbered, but not by how many floors there are. When you go up one floor from the 5th, you arrive at the 14th floor.
From a typical floor plan in Trump Tower, we can calculate that each residential floor is about 11k ft² (not including the large central square for elevators and stairs). If Trump owned the top three floors, this would nicely match his claim of 33k ft². From the 1983 declaration, the sum of the units on a typical floor is 10,089 ft². For the top three floors, there is a 2,764 ft² duplex, and two triplexes summing to 11,195 ft². This leaves at least 16,308 ft² unaccounted for on these top three floors.
If the triplex had large atriums, that could explain some of the missing floor space, but all the pictures I found showed normal-height (elaborately decorated) ceilings.
Most high-rise buildings have mechanical floors for HVAC, water pumps/tanks, etc. Trump Tower doesn't appear to have any dedicated mechanical floors, other than the roof above the 68th. Instead, there are mechanical rooms on the 16th, 27th, 28th, 29th, 66th, 67th, and 68th floors. When calculating "Usable Square Feet" for a full-floor tenant, these mechanical rooms are included. This gets us close to the claimed 30k ft².
So perhaps it's possible that two reported floor sizes, differing by a factor of three, are both accurate.
Yes, Tapper was confused. It looks like the clarification was Harris outperformed Biden by 3% in 58 counties. That's plausible enough that I'm not bothering to check. There's 3,144 counties, so I was skeptical of claims that something didn't happen in any of them. In Henry GA, with rapidly shifting demographics, Harris improved on Biden by 9.2 points; Biden improved on Obama in the same county by 16.1 points.
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