Blueberry
3mo ago
as were laws requiring doctors to treat infants born alive after an abortion
Is there more information about that? Not treating the infants would be highly unethical and even without specific laws illegal, wouldn’t it?
Blueberry
3mo ago
Edit: do you have a source?
https://instagram.com/boxing_ting
https://instagram.com/imane_khelif_10
I mean, what does it mean to „live as a woman“ in current year? Surely there are some butch lesbians having the same style. But this is very male-presenting.
Blueberry
3mo ago
Pitbulls are not called “bipocs of dogs” though. And Pitbulls were purposefully bred as fighting dogs. Whatever one can say about other humans, they are not that.
Blueberry
3mo ago
he’s likely drowning in puss despite his conviction
He is married (to a police psychologist) and has a child.
Blueberry
3mo ago
Solid blue California too:
https://gizmodo.com/california-advances-bill-for-porn-site-age-verification-1851497841
That last state you'd think to pass a porn site age verification law is getting close to doing just that.
The California State Assembly passed the Parent’s Accountability and Child Protection Act that will require porn companies doing business in the state to verify that users are 18 years or older. … Democrat Rebecca Bauer-Kahan and Republican Juan Alanis pushed for passage of the bill, which ended up receiving 65 out of possible 80 yes votes, and zero no votes with 15 assembly members listed as not voting. Before the bill becomes law, it still has to pass the State Senate and then be signed by Governor Gavin Newsom.
Blueberry
3mo ago
But the rules now mean that some Presidents can get really lucky (or unlucky). George H.W. Bush and Trump were one term Presidents and both got 3 SC judges. Clinton and Obama only got two (Obamas third being stolen by McConnell).
Blueberry
3mo ago
Liberal women steer clear of Trump supporters not because they worry "he won't be able to effectively prioritize my emotional needs in the relationship", but because they fear their friends/peer group disapprove of their mate. Being red tribe is low status among blues. The same gender split is happening in Europe, where abortion is not a political issue.
Blueberry
3mo ago
When we talk about "abortion rights", we are talking about the right to an abortion.
This is not the term used on left-leaning Reddit though. It is increasingly framed as “(women’s) reproductive rights”.
Blueberry
3mo ago
President Biden proposed a reform of the Supreme Court:
- A Constitutional Amendment undoing the recent Presidential immunity ruling.
- Term limits. Biden proposes 18 years, which would put nominations for the 9 judges on a regular 2-year cadence. This means every President would normally nominate two new judges.
- Enforceable conduct and ethics rules
I don't know if 1 is really necessary, I honestly kind of like 2 and are sceptic how to enforce 3. Certainly a more centrist approach instead of court packing.
Blueberry
3mo ago
This is totally offtopic, but is Barron Trump really autistic?
Sure, he always looks like he is in another dimension, but I found this very short video where he is greeting someone and he sounds totally normal and his smile doesn't look like an autist:
https://x.com/Pickuptruckdude/status/1788378062679114097
I think he is just reserved. Do we have other videos of him talking?
Blueberry
3mo ago
It needs to cross the isle. White dudes for Biden would be weird too, so it must be black blokes for Trump.
The last AC10 book review is real fun, as the strange phenomenon of Trump fan fiction “Real Raw News” is reviewed. It is a universe in which Trump only pretended to relinquish power, but kept control of the US military to court marshal and execute his (traitorous) enemies. Did you know that both Bill and Hillary Clinton are dead? They were detained by special elite soldiers and tried for their crimes.
https://www.astralcodexten.com/p/your-book-review-real-raw-news
I work in the broader world of American right-of-center politics, and we encounter Real Raw News believers constantly. We get emails from people who confidently insist the public-facing news of the day is fake, and the truth about the events at Gitmo will soon be revealed. At public Q&A events, we’ve fielded questions from genuinely nervous and worried people, who complain about their friends losing hope and being blackpilled by the news, and want to know why there hasn’t been more effort to share what’s “really” going on. A friend of mine who served in the Trump administration has described attending parties where, when he mentioned looking for a post-admin job, he received knowing looks and wink-wink-nudge-nudge remarks from people signaling they knew what was “really” going on. Somehow and someway, a lot of people believe or half-believe or badly want to believe this stuff.
I didn’t know the site, but was surprised of the many hundred comments under most articles. Most comments seem like they are into the joke, but the review shows that at least some want to suspend their disbelief very very hard.
It also examines how the narrative had to be adjusted over time, like a comic book universe for Batman or The Simpsons has timeless parts which are static, for example Bart being perpetually in fourth grade, but the world does stay up to date and the characters history has to be regularly retconned (in a few years the boomer parents Homer&Marge will need to be born in the 90s and are then ostensibly part of Generation Z…).
In the early days of RRN, the military was firmly behind Trump and any implication that Biden held the powers of commander-in-chief was a media-fueled sham. But as time has passed, Trump being the “real” commander-in-chief over a loyal military has evolved into a reality where there are two American militaries, a “White Hat” faction loyal to Trump and “Black Hats” loyal to Biden. Early stories implied the White Hats were more numerous, but recent stories have implied the opposite, with the White Hats an elite force that often wins battles decisively while badly outnumbered. A secret purge has gradually become a secret civil war
The review also theorizes a bit why such conspiracy theories are popular:
I actually think the reverse side of this explains things like the durability of Russiagate: If you’re a normal American liberal, everything Trump says is offensive and piggish, but to justify their level of disdain for them, many needed to elevate his evil to the level of treason, even if that never really made any sense. It can't just be that Trump is an egotistical jerk or a narcissist or whatever. He's got to be a traitor who's going to end American democracy.
Very curious and bizarre corner of the Internet I did not know about.
Blueberry
3mo ago
Ugh, half the posts in the /r/boardgames thread are deleted by the mods (and the thread now locked).
Blueberry
3mo ago
I don't know how active a role Kamala played in the life of her nieces and nephews
No nephews. Kamala only has a niece, Meena Harris (father publicly unknown), who has two small daughters (attractive husband, happy family).
She also has two step children, but they were in their teenage years when their father married Kamala. (Wiki says they call her “Momala”, which is kind of adorable).
Blueberry
3mo ago
Where is the MAGA online space and their memes? Facebook or more private Telegram/Facetime/Whatsapp group chats?
Blueberry
4mo ago
Hu? She looks very well for a 59 years old, certainly she is more attractive than Trump ever was, and yes, almost every person was hotter when they were young.
Blueberry
4mo ago
At least 20 years ago all cases seem heavy disabilities:
In 2005 a review study was undertaken of all 22 reported cases between 1997 and 2004.[7] All cases concerned newborns with spina bifida and hydrocephalus. In all cases, at least 2 doctors were consulted outside the medical team. In 17 of 22 cases, a multidisciplinary spina bifida team was consulted. All parents consented to the termination of life; in 4 cases they explicitly requested it. The mean time between reporting of the case and the decision concerning prosecution was 5.3 months.
Blueberry
5mo ago
ABC:
Federal prosecutors accused Edwards of soliciting nearly $1 million from wealthy donors to hide his affair with videographer Rielle Hunter -- and that he was the father of their baby -- to prevent damage to his reputation as a family man during the campaign.
Edwards' defense team argued the donations were personal gifts from friends, not campaign contributions, and were intended only to hide the affair from his cancer-stricken wife, not voters.
A North Carolina jury found Edwards not guilty of one count of receiving illegal campaign donations but deadlocked on five other charges, leading to a mistrial. The Justice Department ultimately dropped the charges.
Hm, but it didnt work to find Edward guilty.
American Rocketry was very traditional (risk averse) and RP-1 was the save standard propellant everyone had experience with. Here is a paper from 2009, awfully recent, which states that methane was always considered in theory a great propellant, but in praxis no one did serious development work with methane:
https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/abs/pii/S0094576509000630
Liquid methane has been considered an attractive rocket propellant for several decades. However, most rocket engine development efforts in the last 30 years have focused on using more traditional fuels such as hydrogen, kerosene, and earth storables, without any serious development or application of methane to propulsion systems.
This changed in 2012 when SpaceX announced that Raptor would be methane-based. This gave other companies permission to research it too. BlueOrigin announced their methane-based BE-4 in 2014 (and actually they and the Chinese beat SpaceX to orbit with their methane-based engines). Bonkers was the wrong word for it, but it was always an exciting almost-sci-fi idea
You mean copy their actual tech, their paradigm, or the general ideas of reusability?
There is currently an interesting bit about reusability on x. The context is a NYT article how difficult it is to compete with SpaceX.
Dan Piemont from the aerospace startup ABL wrote that he disagrees with the thrust of the article, he welcomes SpaceX success, but their cheap ride sharing on Falcon 9 does indeed make it difficult for his company. He shared as an outlook:
In the long term though, cost is the most important factor as continued cost improvement unlocks larger and more frequent flights, creating a virtuous cycle. Reusability is a huge lever, and I think every launch system will eventually get there. But reusability is on a spectrum it’s not the only lever. Staffing level is the biggest and therefore workflow automation is a huge competitive opportunity.
Elon Musk replied:
Thank you for the thoughtful rebuttal. … I do hope that rocket companies focus on reusability. That is the fundamental breakthrough needed for humanity to become a spacefaring civilization. Falcon is 80% reusable and the team is doing incredible work launching every 2 or 3 days. With extreme effort, Starship will eventually take reusability to 100%. There are many tough issues to solve with this vehicle, but the biggest remaining problem is making a reusable orbital return heat shield, which has never been done before.
https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1796031244846645493
So to circle back, yes, we shouldn't assume that Starship is already a success. (Actually this is a nice example how Elon is not only hype, but also shares freely if something is not working or unexpectedly challenging.)
Ars Live: How profitable is Starlink? We dig into the details of satellite Internet. How has Starlink has gone from zero to profitability in five years? This will be the first Ars Live event we've done in a few years. During these discussions, reporters and editors at Ars Technica speak with industry leaders about the most important technology and science news of the day. So please join us at 2 pm ET (18:00 UTC) on June 11 on our YouTube livestream.
Elon was long ago pushed out of OpenAI. But this is not important for the exceptional influence he had on the course of multiple industries. That he funded/cofounded OpenAI in the first place is crazy. Most industry leaders have one career, a few gifted talents hit multiple homeruns (Jobs with Apple, NextStep and Pixar, then Apple again), but Musk makes it seem like he plays a videogame for which he has cheat codes.
For the same reason all his endeavors can now crash and burn and it wouldn’t matter:
Tesla kickstarted the electric car revolution, but it is not on their shoulders to finish it. That Elon memed other car companies kicking & screaming into a future where e-cars are not anymore a mere novelty, but instead seen as inevitable, and we now have the technology and infrastructure in place (superchargers and more and more battery factories) to transition away from fossil fuels, this is the real legacy.
Similar SpaceX could be run into the ground and Elon still would have changed with it the space industry forever. Here is a quote from a recent Washington Post article (which complains that SpaceX is too successful):
SpaceX’s success in doing so has also opened the door for other commercial space companies. Without SpaceX, “I don’t think Rocket Lab would exist, to be honest with you, because they blazed the path that said space can be commercial and space is investable,” said Peter Beck, Rocket Lab’s CEO.
You tried to argue that Blue Origin (or others) could leapfrog SpaceX, but in the (unlikely) case this happens this would not discredit Musk, instead this would be a triumph as his competitors would either not exist or wouldn’t be as good as without him.
On a technological level SpaceX did absolutely bonker things: Landing rockets? Landing rockets on a drone ship far away in the ocean? Using Methan as propellant? Using cheap steel? Proofing that the failed Soviet N1 concept is viable with modern tech (many inexpensive small engines instead of few big expensive engines), eliminating landing legs and instead trying to catch Starship?
Other rocket companies, Europe and China will have to copy them.
Thunderf00t is a pompous simpleton, don't believe his click bait.
It doesn't matter how much fuel a rocket uses, or if the rocket uses more fuel to be reusable, because fuel cost are negligible in the grand scheme of things.
The propellant cost of a Falcon 9 is around $300.000 for liquid oxygen and $200.000 for rocket grade kerosine (you also need to buy expensive Helium to pressurize tanks, there is a statement of Musk that this costs as much as oxygen).
https://spaceimpulse.com/2023/06/13/how-much-does-rocket-fuel-cost/
So propellant cost is well under a million dollars. Even the Space Shuttle only used a few millions (but the Shuttle project cost billions every year).
Fuel is nothing. SpaceX sells a launch for $67 million.
Sure, there is the cost for ground infrastructure, but this is a fixed cost and is proportional cheaper the more launches SpaceX does. We don't know the cost for refurbishment, but not throwing the engines away alone must be a big win. The last time the company took investor money was in January 2023 (750 million). Their cost of business/revenue is now guessed as over a dozen billions. This is not possible if they are not cashflow positive. I am unsure if they are profitable altogether because they invest so much in Starship, they are building another launch tower in Texas and two other Starship towers in Florida, but this is just building the machine which builds the thing.
I thought a bit more about it:
It is very easy to prove Elon Musk wrong, because almost everything he says or hypes up will not happen. Like his plan to build a prototype of Starship and have it 6 month later orbital, ugh, that was not only optimistic, that was hopelessly naive! Same es full driving I guess.
And he always makes the same mistake in taking zero buffer into account for problems or "unknown unknowns". He also primarily focuses on engineering challenges: is something against the laws of physics? No? Then it is possible and can be done super quick … or not, because he missed that there is a slow bureaucracy which has to approve it and permits have to be done and environmental reviews have to be studied etc etc. Musk has a big blind spot for politics and social stuff. If he were more clever, if he were a true evil genius, he would forge relationships and network with the (leftist) political elite. He would rub shoulders and finance AOC. He would charm and disarm his political opponents. Instead he shitposts on twitter when Biden didn't invite Tesla to the electric vehicle summit.
I personally don't believe I will see a Mars city in my lifetime (though hope dies last) and I think his Mars presentations should be seen psychologically as Elons "happy place". His castle in the sky which he can build in his imagination unimpeded by real life constraints. But in real life there will be astronomical hurdles, from the biggest technical challenge humanity has ever seen, to needing the US President being on board, to the UN not outlawing Mars colonization, to avoiding a veto by China, and what about public opinion and anti-billionaire sentiment etc etc.
BUT all this said:
SpaceX is on the cusp of making Starship working (next test flight 4 is planned in a week). Starship will enable a fuel depot in orbit. An orbital fuel depot will slash costs for the coming lunar base (which also sounds like a pipe dream, but will be built in the 2030s).
You linked to Destin from Smarter every day. There is a small cute twist here. Destin is a smart guy and does his homework, I bet he could recite by heart every size and dimension of the Apollo Eagle lander (especially as his grandfather worked for NASA). And he surely saw the graphics of the Starship HLS lander. If pressed he would have freely confessed that HLS is bigger and that this is nice and enables cool missions etc, but it wouldn't change his criticism much. Because this is factual knowledge. It is memorizing a few numbers and facts. This is not understanding.
Look what happens when Destin for the first time sees the mockup of the SpaceX rocket, feels the space, and imagines that this is really going to the Moon:
https://youtube.com/watch?v=AiZd5yBWvYY&t=2719
NASA 42:25:
"Okay, so this semicircular here is a representative of the human landing system, the lander. etc etc"
Destin 46:25:
"And so when I looked at this ring, I was like, eh, it's a ring. You know, it's just a psychological representation of the diameter of that rocket."
"And then I was like, wait a second. That's a big rocket. And then I got excited. I started thinking about all the engineers designing things to go in there and, like, what it was going to look like in the end."
"And so I thought that was really interesting, and it took my mind to weird places, realizing that this is a lot bigger than what Neil and Buzz went to the moon in. And so this is the first moment that I got really excited."
Seeing is believing.
I would love to be proven wrong.
I don't know about cars or twitter, but SpaceX is killing it.
Starlink turned from a crazy moonshot to: A) being vital for Ukraines defense against Russia and essential for US national security (Starshield)
B) printing money
https://payloadspace.com/predicting-spacexs-2024-revenue/
Starlink revenue increases from $4.2B in 2023 to $6.8B in 2024 (+63% YoY)
Your link is from 2021, and in the last 3 years SpaceX (despite or because of Elons panic) dealt with Starship not being available yet. It will hopefully decrease the cost (and enable larger satellites), but it is not necessary anymore for Starlink being a business. A Falcon 9 launch is as cheap as $20 million (or less) and boosters are now certified to fly 20 times (and they plan to double that).
The relatively short life time for satellites also won't be a problem, this is more to placate people afraid of Kessler-syndrome. For example Amazon Kuiper plans a life time of 7 years for their satellites. SpaceX can easily match that or go higher (propellant is a low amount of the satellite payload). They are still ramping up though and when it begins to be an issue in 5 years they will have Starship available. And if not, then they will launch triple the amount of Falcon 9. And in any case they will have better satellite version (faster speed, direct smartphone connections), so they have to replace older versions anyway.
Artemis is convoluted, but it is that way to make it "congress proof". NASA is very smart in partnering with other countries. The first non-American on the Moon will be a Japanese and Europe is building the Lunar Gateway, these foreign policy entanglement makes it impossible to cancel the project.
And if Starship and an orbital SpaceX fuel depot work, it can only accelerate future Artemis missions (maybe replace SLS).
If you want to bet against/for SpaceX there is a fun Subreddit:
"The Democrats' new sunny vibes"
https://www.noahpinion.blog/p/the-democrats-new-sunny-vibes
Noah Smith argues that with Kamala Harris and her surge in the polls gave the Democrats more chill and optimistic vibes. Going back to normalcy. The only thing missing is a "It's morning again in America" ad.
Case in point: I read right now the headline that Joe Biden warns about the "bloodbath" Trump allegedly promised if he loses the election. It is like soothing cool aid for /r/politics, but it does sound a bit hollow from a cranky old Biden, doesn't it? I don't think Harris will make the same doom & gloom attack. Maybe there is a bit good cop / bad cop dynamic here.
Regarding her VP pick Tim Walz I read the worst about him here, but looking at pictures of that guy I just don't feel it. He looks harmless and nice. Noah says the record shows that Walz is a pro market Yimby guy who is pro-nuclear. When the biggest problem of America is that it can't build anymore than you want a guy like him at the top. And mirroring the tone change of the Democrats Walz message is not an angry "kill the rich!" like from blue-haired-Antifa-communists, but a pragmatic "help the poor".
Walz may not appeal to social conservatives, but the aim is to appeal to independents/undecided anyway. And he is the sort of guy who both signals that woke is over, because woke won:
"Post-protestant middle-American orthodoxy" is quite mouthful. But it is not quite the professional–managerial class, instead a bit more folksy.
Regarding the lefty fringes, neoliberalism is back on the menu:
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