Iran only got in a few hits because the war stopped when the interception rate dropped to about 65-70 percent. Given the volume they were throwing at Israel that could have done a lot of damage if most or all them were getting through. And during WWII the weapons were a lot less precise. Now with Israel I doubt they were in too much danger because at worst they could throw a couple of nukes and scare the Iranians enough to call it off (not even getting into the probable US intervention that would probably come before that). When you’re fighting the country with the largest nuclear arsenal on the planet that wouldn’t be a reliable backstop.
That’s really the problem here. It’s not that western countries are glass cannons, in a lot of ways they are pretty capable. But when you are backing a huge nuclear armed world power into a existential corner it’s a much more difficult situation. And I’m sure someone will draw the right sigils in blood on floor to call forth @Dean and five other posters to explain to that this isn’t really an existential situation for Russia and that they wouldn’t do shit in response to their entire air defense network being glassed by NATO SEAD, but I’m pretty sure they genuinely feel that way and aren’t just being pricks for no reason.
ABigGuy4U
12hr ago
I don't think it's completely crazy to suggest that a Russia-NATO conflict might look, in the air, like a scaled up version of the Israel-Iran conflict
Israel is a country the size of New Jersey, with one of the strongest air defense networks in the entire world. They burned through their entire interceptor stockpile in about a week. After that, they were looking at having their airfields and critical infrastructure systematically dismantled by Iranian missile strikes. Burgerland had to force Israel into a ceasefire because Burgerland didn’t want to have to spend 1/3 of its entire national stockpile (that took 30 years to build up) refilling Israel’s interceptor batteries for another week. Air Defense is just generally on the back-foot in this century. Now picture Europe, an area about 500 times the size of Israel, with hardly any air defense batteries. They would be getting systematically diced up from day one, including all those airfields and hangers that NATO air units are supposed to be flying missions out of.
Also, this all hinges on the United States actually entering the conflict, which nowadays I would call a pretty big if.
ABigGuy4U
12hr ago
Rev 13:11 And I beheld another beast coming up out of the earth; and he had two horns like a lamb, and he spake as a dragon.
Rev 13:12 - And he exerciseth all the power of the first beast before him, and causeth the earth and them which dwell therein to worship the first beast, whose deadly wound was healed.
Rev 13:13 - And he doeth great wonders, so that he maketh fire come down from heaven on the earth in the sight of men,
Rev 13:14 - And deceiveth them that dwell on the earth by the means of those miracles which he had power to do in the sight of the beast; saying to them that dwell on the earth, that they should make an image to the beast, which had the wound by a sword, and did live.
Rev 13:15 - And he had power to give life unto the image of the beast, that the image of the beast should both speak, and cause that as many as would not worship the image of the beast should be killed.
Rev 13:16 - And he causeth all, both small and great, rich and poor, free and bond, to receive a mark in their right hand, or in their foreheads:
Rev 13:17 - And that no man might buy or sell, save he that had the mark, or the name of the beast, or the number of his name.
Rev 13:18 - Here is wisdom. Let him that hath understanding count the number of the beast: for it is the number of a man; and his number is Six hundred threescore and six.
Now obviously there are different ways to interpret that, and most evangelicals believe the church will be raptured before this happens, but this passage alone is enough to make them pretty suspicious about AI and digital ID.
ABigGuy4U
12hr ago
I am curious as to what the CIA Mossad SIS info you cite is
I’m referring to a specific incident about a year into the war, when the Ukrainian MoD claimed that Russia had suffered 140,000 KIA so far, and the White House started trumpeting that figure. The CIA quietly said that they thought the number of Russian KIA was more like 20,000, and you actually had the White House press secretary ridiculing the CIA’s estimate, even though British and Israeli intelligence had similar figures.
ABigGuy4U
1d ago
pretty sure there's an open source database with video or picture proof of the tens of thousands of destroyed Russian hardware.
Yes, Oryx, which abruptly shut down in late 2023 when it was about to become obvious how totally full of shit they were.
I think it’s plausible for a few reasons:
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Since the Maidan revolution, Russia has had every paranoid fear of NATO being out to get them validated by NATO. I think Russia genuinely views it as an existential struggles. Both the leadership and a good chunk of the people.
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Poland just isn’t as well suited to turning into a four year grinding trench war. It’s geographically a lot smaller, it’s land army manpower is somewhere between 15 percent and 50 percent the size of the Ukrainian Army. Most of the modernization went into magic beans (F16s, M1 tanks) that are serviceable but apparently not that magical in modern warfare.
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God only knows what the hell is going to be going on in Burgerland in six months, much less three years. They may or may not get involved.
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Europe is in pretty good shape to drip-feed equipment to Ukraine. But if that turned into “immediately mobilize 115 divisions and rush them into Eastern Europe while hypersonic missiles are crashing into every railway station and airfield Between Paris and Warsaw” they would be up Shit Creek.
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If Ukraine really does fall I suspect a lot of countries are going to rapidly revaluate their commitment to the cause.
ABigGuy4U
1d ago
Well I was trying to steelman OP’s thesis so I had to accept at least some of his assertions. I meant it’s not unreasonable to assume that Russian forces have possibly taken enough damage to make it not feasible to mount an invasion of Poland even if they wanted to. I don’t agree but I don’t laugh in his face for making the argument. Personally I think this whole boondoggle has probably increased the capability of the Russian army and made them more likely to go for Poland or the Baltic states, like one of those self-fulfilling prophecies from a Greek tragedy.
ABigGuy4U
1d ago
Aren't religious conservatives generally anti-AI?
They are quite suspicious about AI, but that’s more over fears about what it could turn into than what it currently is now. The vast majority of evangelical conservatives aren’t going to side-eye you because you shared a meme that was made with AI. That said, I would suggest that anyone in Silicon Valley who is very concerned about existential AI threat start making outreaches to evangelicals, because they are probably the group most likely to listen.
To add an actual thesis to Mushroom’s unhinged screed, I would steelman it as:
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Ukraine has a decent chance of continuing attritional warfare until Russia gives up.
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Even if part or all of Ukraine falls, it performed a valuable service in keeping Russia from advancing further into Eastern Europe.
I don’t think either of those theses are inherently ridiculous (especially not the second one), but they both rely on Russia really being as banged up as Mushroom thinks they are. Which who knows. I know for a fact that previous popular estimates of vast Russian men and vehicle losses were quietly and sheepishly exposed as bullshit by all the actual intelligence agencies that were keeping track (CIA, SIS, Mossad). I am really looking forward to reading some assessments of the war 20 years from now when it’s not a live political issue.
I also suspect that China has a much stronger interest in keeping Russia whole and threatening Eastern Europe than they publicly let on. That threat is what’s keeping a lot of US attention and resources flowing to places other than the countries of the South China Sea.
ABigGuy4U
1d ago
Meanwhile, the Ukrainian Energy Minister siphoned off $100,000,000 of aid money and fled the country, always a good sign that the war is going well.
ABigGuy4U
1d ago
Aircraft carriers usually have regular Catholic mass, I don’t know about ships with smaller crews.
The specific issue that he picked seems like bullshit TDS nitpicking, and given the vlogbrother’s passive aggressive approach to politics I am not surprised. But the overall point is well taken. The Framers did not design the legislature with this level of partisanship in mind, and the system is starting to break down. And I think he’s right that the imperial presidency is as much of (or more) the result of congressional breakdown as it is the ambitions of the individual presidents themselves. I am pretty bleak about the prognosis of the American government.
ABigGuy4U
2d ago
You'd need to have a priest there to perform the consecration.
Real life naval vessels have chaplains on board so this would not be a stretch.
ABigGuy4U
2d ago
He may be talking about theories that the vaccine was used to introduce a dormant gene-targeted bio weapon but I’m not sure. It sounds like he comes from a high-censorship site like Reddit where you have to speak in riddles to avoid being banned.
I think he’s referring to two things:
- The significant evidence that COVID was genetically engineered, and the sketchy circumstances of its origin. Jeffery Sachs has spoken about this at length, and about how members of the scientific community that were reporting on the likely man-made origin of the plague were shouted down and suppressed.
- Various governments using COVID as an excuse to try and roll out all sorts of different authoritarian measures (lockdowns, quarantine orders, travel restrictions, mask mandates, vaccine passes, crackdowns on “misinformation”).
ABigGuy4U
3d ago
I still suspect there was probably cooperation with the CIA, hence why they never did anything about this massive security breach.
ABigGuy4U
3d ago
the prospect of a permanent Democratic majority in the USA due to demographics and such.
I think this was actually plausible, it’s just that Democratic strategists badly misread the thesis of The Emerging Democratic Majority and so they fumbled the ball. The thesis was that if Democrats could maintain the Obama coalition of minority voters and college educated suburban white voters and white working class voters, they would have an unassailable majority. The party seems to have misread this as “minority voters=win” and told the rest of that potential coalition to go to hell.
ABigGuy4U
3d ago
artificial wombs
I think some people are under the mistaken impression that we are living much, much further in the future than we actually are. We barely understand how these systems even work, much less how to recreate them. It’s like Romantic era scientists thinking we’re a decade out from creating life because we got a dead frog’s leg to move by shocking it.
Reject Bladerunner, RETVRN to Mad Max
ABigGuy4U
3d ago
Also everyone has 2028 in the back of their mind, and the various sub-groups of the Trump coalition are starting to jockey for pole-position in the post-Trump vacuum. And given the possibility that the Democratic might actually just collapse (the recent races were promising for them but it’s no guarantee of survival), it makes seizing control of the GOP especially important.
I was recently watching a new TV miniseries, Death by Lighting it’s about President Garfield’s assassination. This was during the Reconstruction era when America was basically a one-party Republican state. One thing that struck me was how vicious the intra-party jockeying was back then in the absence of a robust opposing political party.
ABigGuy4U
5d ago
No, but the timing and location do seem a bit eyebrow raising to me. It reads as a direct and proportionate retaliation for the bombing the day before. Or possibly that both bombings were a Machiavellian attempt by a third party to spark a conflict.
ABigGuy4U
5d ago
That’s what concerns me the most, in the event of any major conventional attack there could be significant pressure to “use or lose” the nukes, especially since Pakistan’s are pretty forward-deployed compared to India’s.
ABigGuy4U
5d ago
No, but it was only a few days long. I think ending the shutdown over fear of what a prolonged suspension might lead to is not unreasonable.
ABigGuy4U
5d ago
I don’t necessarily take the Pakistani government’s claims at face value either. But to some extent it doesn’t matter what the truth is, just what the government thinks or claims is the truth. It certainly would not be the first time a country went to war on paper thin evidence.
ABigGuy4U
5d ago
The French and Russian revolutions both started as what were essentially bread riots. I think a lot of the Motte falls into let-them-eat-cake-ism and doesn’t realize how serious a problem a SNAP/EBT shutdown could be. Most of the lower enlisted rungs of the US military are on food stamps. Most Walmart employees are on food stamps. It’s not just 300 pound welfare queens spending EBT on hair extensions.
It was just someone using a regular set of [brackets] for a parenthetical statement and the Reddit turbo-jannies jumped on it as a supposedly bannable offense. Which indicated that the jig was probably up and someone higher up on the food chain was hunting for any excuse to start the witch burnings.
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