@09milk's banner p

09milk


				

				

				
0 followers   follows 0 users  
joined 2022 September 22 03:19:54 UTC
Verified Email

				

User ID: 1309

09milk


				
				
				

				
0 followers   follows 0 users   joined 2022 September 22 03:19:54 UTC

					

No bio...


					

User ID: 1309

Verified Email

Here, it seems that either real insurance companies are bad at judging risk (which would be bad for libertarian utopias), or that the USG is bad at juding risk.

It seems to me that there is intelligence difference between real insurance companies and USG, no doubt USG has a more accurate information on what Iran is capable of and, (tin foil hat on), with the difference in information USG will be able to do arbitrage here, might even turn a profit!! (tin foil hat off)

This whole idea doesn't sounds like the worst idea Trump has over the decade, and when insurance companies provide these kind of covers, they are going to lobby USG to intervene anyways

Isn't this the norm during WW2? What is the expected norm during the 1940s on military tactics related to civilian targets?

From an outside perspective, this seems unambiguous in the way that, illegal should be counted, as the wording distigush between a person and a citizen, which is totally fucked.

This should be changed, I am sure tourists and legal foreign students do not count, right, right??

birthright citizenship is certainly something that is uniquely American that I completely forgot about when I write my comment

forgive my ignorance, why is US counting non-citizens for electoral college and house seats after abolition of slavery?

as a non American, I unironcally think the best way for ICE is only enforce the immigration law in cooperative states, focus on state with support

this will force illegal immigrant to move to non-cooperative states, basically the "free NYC migrant bus" policy on a larger scale

The spirit of the law is clear, but you can't enforce the spirit of the law.

Isn't jury of one's peers in essence trying to enforce spirit of the law instead of enforcing the letter?

I feel like the existing "de facto partner" help distinguish between 'wife'/'husband' and 'partner', government mostly just use partner as a result of trying not to discriminate de facto relationship compare to standard marriage

Home defence? Yes Street? No

As a non-american, to me bringing firearm out of home as civilians comes with higher than normal responsibility and expectation from society of you are not expected to use it, while police are required and expected to use lethal force in certain situations with the risk of misjudging can mean their own life

In my opinion, a better solution will be to increase police responsibility on lethal/non-lethal force usage AND responsibility of failing to respond, while simultaneously increase their pay level to balance out these increased responsibilities

If medical doctor's training and responsibility give them such a high wage, police's training and responsibility should be on a similar level with similar pay

For all the nerds who enjoy playing video games, there is a FPS game called Ready Or Not which involve disarm criminals who either captured civilians or disguised as them, while it is only a game and hurting civilians only lower our score, we can also restart if we die, it do give me and my friends a new perspective on what pressure police is under in these situation

One main pressure is, you never know if someone is armed and potentially kill you before you restrain them, people can comply all you orders all day long but one last non-compliance and kill half of your team

In my opinion we don't pay police enough for them to risk their life in these situations, rationally they should always shoot first given any legal justification

ly try to make having children the financially preferable choice (or even just equivalent!) instead of an immense burden relative to childlessness/having too few children before we throw up our hands and declare defeat?

Something like, special yearly levy on childless adult, then split the earning from this levy to every child so that people are encouraged to have at least 1 kid to avoid the tax, while poor people can continue to spawn kids to get more benefit from this tax

Isn't Japan the clear former Axis power who got "conquered and turned into colonial puppet regimes"? "Supreme Commander for the Allied Powers" is a dictatorial position held by American, basically a colonial governor

A simple answer in my opinion will be, how much money they made, as this is a direct proxy of how much others value their action

Numerous well-designed studies have indicated that pregnant mothers exposed to acetaminophen have children diagnosed with neurodevelopmental disorders (NDDs), including autism spectrum disorder (ASD) and attention-deficit/hyperactivity disorder (ADHD), at higher rates than children of pregnant mothers who were not exposed to acetaminophen

Correlation? Likely. Causation? I don't think so.

I suspect Paracetamol use during pregnancy can be correlated to social economic class, which will correlate to better chance of diagnosis.

I second this approach of thinking, at the end, the goal of school is to pump out students actually capable of reading and understanding. Pumping out illiterate students contradict the function of school, school is NOT day care facility and we should not treat them as such

A school pumping out illiterate students should do worst on stats, State A's school (0.7/year) in @odd_primes's example is a worst school than State B's school (0.6/year), even though State B's school has less effective teachers

Just like a company, the administration stucture matters, it might increase or decrease the overall profitability of the company, and State B's school's administration makes their school more functional at their goal, depite less effective teachers

I don't think that is Israel's intention to starve civilians to death, but marely a consequences of how Hamas blatantly ignore international convention of war leading to a lose lose situation for IDF/Gazan civilians, where IDF need to be accused of commiting war crime en masse, and Gazan civilians being stave to death.

While Israel had been criticized for their dubious non-humane military tactics, they seems to still put certain restraint on themselves when it comes to civilians. IDF don't kill civilians for fun, at least not openly.

I think the starvation here, if real, is an unintended consequences of international humanitarian organizations did not put effort to protect their humanitarian resources, leading to Hamas siphoning military resources for free practically.

People find SAT-solving fun, a classic example is the game Sudoku.

If you are not into it then you are not into it, but the game of building the meta, thus meta gaming itself can be fun, for people like me at least.

utilitarian suffering min-maxing which leads to crazy conclusions like those mentioned above (banning pets, GMOing predators to herbivores, being concerned about exploiting earthworm labor).

Is this actaully utilitarian if they are not minimizing the suffering by compromise? In my opinion, what they and the boarder progressive are doing seems to be closer to deontologist

As an utilitarian, one should optimize for the result and use whatever means to achieve it, while the end justifies the means, it also unjustifies the means if the end is nothing to show for

As someone out of US trying to understand why is it that difficult to implement a work right verification system when every other developed country have one:

  1. Assuming there is a quick way to verify US citizens by birth certificate so that we can first filter out all US citizens
  2. Setup a system so that employees can enter passport number and visa number, to verify someone's right to work, the system should also return the name and photo of the passport holder (Legal immigrant in US must have a passport and visa, right?)
  3. Setup an alternative system so that asylum seekers will aquire a temporary visa with photo, so that effectively act as both a passport and visa at the same time when they are in the US
  4. Require employees to save a copy of employers ID documents, to avoid liability in-case of forged documentations

Isn't this the standard for everyother first world countries?

In same way I hate using AI (vibe coding), but this seems to be the exact case where AI coding is suitable: one off project and not business critical

Although I think using AI for a prolonged period will lower your overall ability to code as a developer, or maybe I am just too old school with basically little to no IDE in my frequently used tools

Traditionally, woman will be shamed for being sex-positive while man will be prided.

The first few waves of feminism (in the west) try to combat this contradiction by pushing woman's stand closer to the man's side, likly due to this appear to give more power to woman instead of stripping power from man.

I think this is a mistake, in practice, this casued a conflict of interest for womon. On one hand woman are now free to have sex without legal repercussions and too much socal slut naming, on the other hand woman are now finding out the biological difference between both sex, namely man can fuck and go now, while woman might need an abortion or get a 18 years liability.

Purhaps feminism should instead goes for shaming man of pre-marital sex, but it is too late now

...which one? Do you figure there is some priority list of countries he wants to invade? What does it look like?

A quick list from wiki of actual wars he/Russia involved in since 1991:

  • 3 Georgian related wars (1 civil war, 2 war of independence)
  • Moldova's Transnistria war (war of independence)
  • Tajikistani Civil War (this time Russia seems to be on the "good" side, with UN support)
  • 2 Chechen wars (1st is war of independence from Russia, for the 2nd one I am not familiar with the subject to form a justifiable opinion, but I think this is a full scale invasion)
  • war with Georgia, again
  • 2014 Crimean war, then 2022 full scale invasion

I think this is quite an impressive list of wars within 21 years

I think Putim start these war due to internal political struggles, like, start and win a war is one of easiest war to remain in power for political leaders, democracy or dictatorship. Remember the prelude of 2022 Ukrainian war was Ukraine will fall within a few months, this is the public consensus of the world at the time

If a nuclear-armed Ukraine becomes a pariah in your scenario

I don't believe Ukraine will becomes a pariah at all, Pakistan did not become a pariah with their much worst actions.

On the gas stealing part, I think Ukraine will either not have the chance of stealing due to new pipelines bypassing them which lead to a less prosper Ukraine, or no new pipelines bypassing them while Ukraine in a much better stand to negotiate trading agreements with Russia without the fear of being invaded.

All in all, I think Russia instead will attempt to culturally and economically influence Ukraine so that Ukraine stay within their sphere of influence which justify the cheap selling of gas to Ukraine.

this looks like another instance of a general pattern of producing simple good/evil narratives by cutting off history at a convenient point

As expected, part of this is war time propaganda from every country for justification of supporting the "good" guy

I always refer to this video lecture as a counter argument of why, at the time, the decision to invade Iraq can be justified by US/UK head of governement

It detailed the information available at the time for US/UK, then laid out the potential internal political backfire in case of Iraq actually having WMD and used it

After listening to the lecture, to me it always seems like invading Iraq is the rational move at the time with the available intel, while simultaneously and evidently a wrong decision after the fact as we gain more information due to the war

In an alternate history of nuclear-armed Ukraine, I believe Putin will choose a different country to invade instead

The alt-path will likely start with Ukraine not signing the Budapest Memorandum thus keeping their Soviet nukes, while Ukraine will likely suffer some form of international trade sanction (but not a lot, as the newly created Russia will likely not sanction them to cripple they own nation)

Going into the 2000s, I believe Ukraine will achieve a status similar to pre-2022 Finland, where they will be a Friend of Russia economically, with the promise of not joining NATO, after all, everyone knows there is no benefit for Ukraine to join NATO when they have nukes, thus Russia unironically will feel a lot safer from Ukraine compare to our history

In our history, Ukraine is always a somewhat Russian friendly country before Russia fucked them hard by all the means after 2000, would Russia fuck with the government of a nuclear-armed, Russian friendly Ukraine?

As long as Ukraine demonstrate their discipline on international affairs and don't actively fuck with others, they likely achive at worst the status of Pakistan (who hosted Osama bin Laden without real consequences), likely the status of India (internationally not one give a fuck on what they do internally), at best the status of pre-2022 Finland (Staying friendly to everyone, everyone want them to be the buffer state while giving you some form of trade access), all depends on what Ukrainian can achieve diplomatically

Budapest Memorandum is always worthless in wording, but ideally should serve as the example of what the global powers are willing to commit for nuclear non-proliferation, which, many years later, is little to none

No country even make the claim that they support Ukraine base on the virtue of giving up nukes, instead of they support Ukraine mainly because it is a defensive war close to Europe

The critical problem of getting function nukes is enriched uranium, delivery mechanism can be a truck, like the recent Ukrinian drone carrier

While they don't have the launch codes, by definition nukes must be weapon grade enriched uranium, the big dogs are likely bluffing