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netstack

The horse embodies the wings a person feels inside.

10 followers   follows 3 users  
joined 2022 September 05 17:27:40 UTC

				

User ID: 647

netstack

The horse embodies the wings a person feels inside.

10 followers   follows 3 users   joined 2022 September 05 17:27:40 UTC

					

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User ID: 647

no matter what they say

I chose “say” in hopes of avoiding this exact conversation. What people say and do are not, in fact, the same thing.

But I suppose that was foolish of me. If I claim Sailer’s audience is wrong about Democrats, I’m basically signing up to defend anything Democrats have done since LBJ. I think this is a dirty motte and bailey, but one that sees a lot of use, so I ought to be more explicit.

  • Affirmative action is not (currently!) a spoils system because expanding it is outside the Overton window. It’s a decent candidate, though, and sort of worked as one historically.
  • Filling leadership roles by racial profiling is a spoils system and an embarrassment.
  • Minority-majority districts could be spoils, except packing and cracking are also in play, so they show up no matter who controls the legislature. See Texas for example.

The motte is that Democrats absolutely do things which implement or at least hint at a racial spoils system. This is obviously true.

The bailey comes when using those things as evidence for a specific model of the Democratic Party, one where the minorities are all ganging up to shake down white Americans. This is senseless and hyperbolic. It assumes away the prospect of white people choosing to benefit non-whites, because that’s how Sailer thinks.

You’re suggesting that the far left, i.e. actual Communists, is too individualistic?

And that Christians are more collectivist not because of any particular commandment or selection effect, but because they have a particular conception of their kinship with Christ.

I think you’re overselling it in much the same way as Protestants used to oversell Catholic obeisance to the Pope.

I was originally tongue in cheek, but after thinking about it, I stand by my claim.

First, it’s a first-person game where you shoot; how can it not be a shooter?

Second, it iterated on the physics puzzles and environmental advantages of HL by making them the focus of the game.

Third, it continued to prioritize playable story over cutscenes, and took the PA system to another level.

Portal?

rrazyn

Donny Jones makes a guest appearance.

I’ve occasionally seen a horseshoe desk, though much more rarely than a “bank teller” setup or just a single desk.

I concur that any of these desk types are almost always staffed by women, and that those women are between 20 and 60. You know, like most American workers.

None of the rest fits my experience. It’s like you’re sending a message from an alternate dimension, maybe the same place from which Ben Shapiro pulled his fiction.

Okay, hold on. I have a cousin who fit a number of those checkboxes, and she totally worked healthcare support up in the Midwest. No word on her desk style. I think she’s moved on to education now that her kid is in school?

Uh, I don’t think I said such.

Botond described Sailer’s model as

the Democrats’ best chance of winning the presidency is by fielding as a candidate an older African American man with a military background who’s from a working class or lower-middle class background and is center-left.

I think this is wrong, and that more or less none of those categories matter if the guy runs on vibes. Democrats have awful, cringe-inducing vibes. They need to present an aura of charismatic competency to contrast with the Trump campaign. No, I don’t have much confidence that will happen.

But I guess I think claims of racialist spoils are overstated, too. Shit’s still politically toxic.

I’ll take that bet.

I say this as someone with a very low opinion of the current chain of command; a ceasefire is politically valuable at the moment, and our President (and SecDef) are exactly the kind of people who might apply pressure to keep it quiet.

The odds just favor a legitimate crash.

Don’t forget Argentina!

In all seriousness, listing incidents is just begging for a Texas sharpshooter to come and draw you a bullseye. All the usual SSC pieces about selection bias apply. Batshit insane stuff does happen occasionally. If you turn up the number of opportunities by, say, maintaining the world’s largest navy and two largest air forces, then sending them across the planet to run combat missions, you will generate more batshit insane incidents. Drawing a line through all these incidents will tell you more about the person drawing the line than about the base rate!

If he thinks Steve Sailer is offering a realistic model of the Democratic Party, he probably didn’t understand working-class politics anyway.

Sailer plays to his audience, which is very much inclined to frame everything as racialist spoils systems. He’s going to ascribe that to the Democrats no matter what they say.

Both of which sound more “math rock” to me.

Wait, Freddie thinks it’s a screwjob?

Revising my estimates down a few points.

I feel like I’ve fallen into bizarro world. People are bending over backwards to defend this guy, and it’s not even our usual mysogynists.

Huh. I think the “found God” strategy would actually work, since his main appeal was always to bring in conservatives.

Not that I expect him to take it.

Uh…me?

I think conscious choices are one of the main dividers between us and other animals. If you’ve seen a feral cat colony, you’ve seen the unfettered id.

how many posts have we had on here discussing how women put men through shit tests?

I think most of those posts fall somewhere between uncharitable and unhinged. I was under the impression you usually thought the same, which is why I was surprised.

Again, I don’t disagree with your assessment of the credibility.

Judge Judy ran from 1996 to 2021. I’m sure a lot of people approve of her…sass, or whatever. Does that qualify her as an inspiring hero?

I dunno, I’m sure someone would say it. But there’s definitely more than one kind of celebrity, and I didn’t realize Bourdain had that much admiration.

I see where you’re coming from, and I guess I’m just not convinced that the average voter decouples those two things.

Look, as unimpressive as I find the accusations…I’m really surprised to see this framing from you. We’ve got a lot of users who have said similar things in the past, and I could have sworn you’d blown up at them.

If the accuser is telling the truth, then it’s rape, plain and simple. That just happens to be a big “if.”

sexual warcrimes

Is this metal band name taken?

Maybe I was unclear.

The accusation represents new information unavailable to primary voters.

If that’s not enough to lose the general, they don’t need to drop him like this.

If it is enough, then his endorsement is worth less than nothing.

Therefore, they have no reason to drop him but keep asking him for input.

Man, that’s bizarre.

Hold on.

I agree that Russia feared NATO expansion into Ukraine. I would say that is adequately explained by the “five-minute adventure” model: if Russia thought the cost would be really low, the benefit of a puppet buffer would be easily worth it. Now that the cost is sunk, Russia doesn’t want to back down, because now it definitely gets a hostile neighbor.

What it doesn’t offer is any reason to prefer the cultural trauma theory. I don’t find it reasonable to say having Ukraine as a neighbor was comparable to having the Nazis on the border. That sounds like a post-facto justification, and a pretty silly one.

military wargame type considerations

What do you mean?

What? If it’s genuine, why would they do that? He can only drag down his replacement.

And so long as he denies it, what incentive would he have to help out?

That sounds awfully…charitable.

What advantage does the cultural trauma theory have?

Accusing your enemies of Nazism is a proud tradition in and out of Russia, so you’d expect to see it whether or not the leadership were motivated by such.

Moving your borders closer to NATO does not suggest a fear of invasion. Neither does draining your manpower and weapon stockpiles. Both of those things are more compatible with the five-minute adventure theory, though.