RandomRanger
Just build nuclear plants!
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User ID: 317
If Mythos was near AGI/ASI I don't think Anthropic would release it to the general public. If it's AGI then people will not be using it to make crappy 3js oneshot games on twitter, they will be using it mostly to make the next generation, with the side gig being products worth billions of dollars!
I think Fable is AGI 'in the aggregate' in that it has all the separate abilities needed to match high/peak human output. But it can't string them together quite well enough. You can't just prompt it 'write me a first rate fantasy novel' and then have it whir for 48 hours drafting and drafting and brainstorming and get 70K words output, where it's all great and would make you good money on Amazon. It'd be cliched or have plot holes even though it's legitimately quite strong as a writer. Time horizon is too short.
RandomRanger
Just build nuclear plants!
1d ago
True... I was editing and removed that sentence before I saw that you replied here.
But it's still a pretty big loss for the US based just on what has been reported. The primary goal of the war wasn't achieved. Attacking political leaders had nothing to do with the nuclear/missile and reopening the straits pivot later on. The initial goal was regime change. On that alone the war is a loss, decapitating leaders is no more useful than removing hydra heads one by one. Then there's the unsanctioning of Iran and war reparations...
America has lost. The goal of the war was regime change, the goal failed immediately and predictably.
Basically everything you said is wrong or unfounded. Firstly, the straits are not actually open (mines that were laid still remain there!). Shipping is not currently passing through.
https://hormuzstraitmonitor.com/
https://straits.live/
There's $300 billion that the Gulf states are apparently going to provide to Iran as war reparations, plus another $24 billion in unfrozen funds. So Iran may be getting a lump sum instead of ongoing fees on the straits. Note that war reparations are not usually paid to defeated countries...
because we destroyed the nuclear facilities they would need to use it
Destroyed them twice over now, after the 2025 air raids. When are people going to develop a basic level of skepticism about US bombing and these amazing claims made by the US military? General Caine said it, so it must be true?
RandomRanger
Just build nuclear plants!
2d ago
That's important and I think that people thinking quantitatively about enormous payoffs might well behave this way.
But also we're all still human and I don't think that even maximum power threats really deters much. What criminal really thinks they'll be caught? It's hard to deter these kinds of gamblers who've won lots of bets in their lives, done the impossible many times and gotten away with it. Gut instinct predominates over calculation I think and the gut says to push forward even in the face of threats. It's like Lenin said:
You probe with bayonets: if you find mush, you push. If you find steel, you withdraw
The good effect of punishment isn't deterrence but about physically destroying their ability to cause any problems. I think steel and certainty now is what's needed, not future threats.
Fable is much more of a 'do it right the first time' model than Opus. I had three pages of instructions for a feature. It just does what I ask, gets it all right, then tests it without me asking and tells me about the balancing! Opus could've done all that too if I cut up the instructions a bit but there'd be some minor glitches and I'd have to go over and fix it.
Better planner too. I was planning out a project with Opus 4.6 a few months ago, never really started it. Tried the same prompt with Fable and it come up with a few strokes of brilliance Opus never found. When making the initial demonstrator, Opus made a crap sandbox that needed a couple of rounds of debugging to even work and it wasn't very satisfactory. So I tried with Fable. Fable made a much nicer, prettier sandbox with more content that worked the first time and had all these things already set up to test. it puts in more care and effort as well as being smarter.
Better writer too. It is to Opus as Opus is to Sonnet.
RandomRanger
Just build nuclear plants!
3d ago
Putting anyone into the torment nexus is crossing a line. Is that not the last thing to normalize? With bad people, just shoot them. That's good enough, no need to worry about them being taken out of the torment nexus by some future authority, less need to worry about Perillos/Brazen Bull style turnaround.
this is significantly less likely now that frontier models are going to be stuck in Uncle Sam's basement
I think that Anthropic is being targeted, not AI generally. The Trump administration does not like Anthropic for obvious cultural reasons and a reasonable suspicion that if Anthropic got hard power via AI, they'd use it to crush Trump and gang. Trump faction wouldn't treat Google, Microsoft or Amazon this way, there are lots of cozy interrelations there. The employees might not like Trump but they'll still help fund his ballroom. Recall the OpenAI, Facebook, Palantir executives getting sworn in as lieutenant colonels in the US military. Or Nvidia getting away with far more grievous harm to US interests via looking the other way with smuggling of their chips to China, lobbying against export controls, failing to track where their chips go. But Jensen knows how to court Trump and Anthropic doesn't. Jensen also has stocks (the biggest and the best!), so it's be costly for the avaricious elements of the US government to harm Nvidia's interests no matter how strategically obvious it is. You just don't sell high tech capital goods to strategic rivals, nevermind if it's 2 years behind or not! Anthropic stock is owned by VCs, not senators and elites or anyone who enjoys an index fund. Anthropic have no such financial pull factor.
But also, I'm reminded of how the big players in nuclear research stopped publishing openly in the 1940s...
RandomRanger
Just build nuclear plants!
5d ago
Meta's LLM offerings have been pretty crap but they're still making lots of money off AI in extremely unsexy algorithmic improvements, using the offshoots of LLM tech, using all those GPUs.
So they have something to show for all they've spent. Ad revenue grew about 22% in 2025, in large part due to AI improvements. Though it's kind of diffuse and hard to assign revenue growth to a certain piece of tech when it's all backend, under the hood stuff.
AI is existential for software/ad companies like Facebook or Google, I don't think they have a choice here.
Largely (though Mythos approaches white collar wages in terms of dollars per hour at API rates). But it's not like all tokens go straight to code written. Tokens are more like measuring thought.
When I give Mythos/Fable instructions it first goes 'I'll explore the codebase' and so it searches for relevant things (those search commands are output tokens). Then it reads files which have the relevant data, more input tokens. Then it thinks for a while (that's output tokens). Then it makes its to do list. Then it reads some more, thinks some more. There are pages and pages of just reading and thinking before it goes 'i have a full picture'. Then it starts editing code!
Then it'll try and test if it actually works, often writing some test cases, so that's more code. Then it tells me everything it did in summary and adds stuff to its memory files.
So a lot of thought is happening even if it only adds a few pieces here and there for a new feature.
RandomRanger
Just build nuclear plants!
5d ago
Why didn't they set a spend limit? Can't get tinier or more amateurish than my projects. I have a spend limit set up for precisely this situation, or if I get my API keys stolen. I'm pretty sure spend limits are on by default!
I guess there's just a huge gulf in discipline between businesses of similar sizes, the small companies I work with take pains to track all the dollars in their accounting.
Company Blew $500M On Claude AI In One Month Due To No Usage Limit On Licenses For Employees
How do you even do that, are we supposed to believe that some company with $500 million to spend didn't know how to use cost tracking? Cost tracking comes with the pleb-tier management tools I get!
And if they were trying to goose the valuation then why would they admit it was unintentional, it makes Anthropic sound expensive? (They are expensive). It sounds more like an anti-Anthropic story to me.
The story sounds greatly exaggerated or misleading IMO. Who is this mystery company too, what are the details on this? More likely some company just consciously spent a lot of money on Claude AI and then some reporter fluffed it up into a narrative we all hear instead of a boring article that goes nowhere.
Regarding energy, even though the US is a major producer and isn't as badly affected as other countries like Australia, Europe or poor countries, the world economy is global. Problems in Asia will spread to America. The US is busily exporting oil, including the strategic reserve releases, to take advantage of price gaps and stabilize markets. But this is a temporary fix. The price gaps will narrow. The invisible hand of the market will slowly but surely squeeze the US economy if this price pressure remains. Even if oil producers profit, much more of the US economy relies on truck transport, plastics, feedstock, jet fuel, lubricants and all the other chemicals which support industrial civilization.
Venezuelan oil is low quality and requires years of patient investment and capable administration to realize much net gains from. Crude oil production there is barely half of what it was in 2016 and shows no signs of making up for the current supply loss. Nobody is a bigger fan of nuclear than me but nuclear energy is not going to lower fuel prices in a matter of months.
https://www.ceicdata.com/en/indicator/venezuela/crude-oil-production
RandomRanger
Just build nuclear plants!
6d ago
If there's a crash, I predict it'll be due to energy prices and the war in Iran, not AI.
Anthropic is nearly profitable, or supposed to have been profitable in Q2. Some say that's phoney accounting and Anthropic says profits may not be maintained. But it seems that major investments are paying off. Furthermore, AI models are getting continually better as with Fable most recently. This trend will continue, bigger and better models working for longer need more compute to run them and so justify further intensifying investment. I guess that argument is forbidden by your post. But if it is The Singularity, if it is a New Paradigm then presumably that's good for stocks!
Anyway, energy is more important to the economy than AI right now. You can't just shut off a huge amount of oil and gas production without ramifications! The 1973 oil shock is a useful precedent. The market seems to have been expecting peace talks to advance more smoothly than they actually have been. Bombing has just resumed. Iran has announced they're re-closing the straits and possibly the other straits in the Red Sea too.
RandomRanger
Just build nuclear plants!
6d ago
I was also thinking about this with regard to 'how AGI could win the Iran war for the US'. A more obvious application is eliminating pilot loss by having the AI fly the planes. But maybe you could also get the ground crew to be replaced by random Arabs with headsets who're told what to do/supervised by the AI.
It doesn't seem very practical though. Surely the cost of supervising a person is higher than the cost of getting a robot to do things tirelessly, precisely, with full feedback and sensors. Homo sapiens main strength has always been intellectual, not physical!
RandomRanger
Just build nuclear plants!
7d ago
I don't believe in surrendering to sadness, but it's a sign of health to be distraught about a future where a small number of capital-owners live like kings while the rest of us are relegated to the saddest jobs in existence
There is still time to get on the train? I'm not the most well-off guy in the world. But I have my AI stocks, if 'capital' means anything in the future I should be fine. People are still talking about the AI bubble and such. Lots of people are investing in property or value stocks. The singularity is not priced in.
Alternately if we get a 'fuck the shareholders, liquidate everyone who doesn't have a killbot swarm' scenario then you and I won't need to worry about doing sad jobs.
But you said that Roy's scenario was a fantasy? Can Clavicular make arbitrary women have sex with him on demand? Probably not. Does he slay mad puss? Yes. Would he be capable of this if he hadn't looksmaxxed, famemaxxed? No.
SV startups often give equity that can be worth a lot of money, they are different from Walmart or McDonalds. The tingles are a real thing in both cases. People worked for Elon Musk very hard even when they could've been lazy and useless at Lockheed because he gave them the tingles.
RandomRanger
Just build nuclear plants!
10d ago
the GigaChad as imagined by male incels and female 50 Shades readers, who is so hot that he can make stranger women drop their panties with a wink
Clavicular might not be quite capable of doing this but Roy's standard is somewhat lower. For example, Clavicular was talking with some girl that wanted to be exclusive with him and he went 'lol no, I'm gonna fuck other women' and she instantly folds:
https://x.com/permabulla/status/2045527650098171927
That seems pretty analogous to what roy was saying?
Gigachads and gigastacies might be very rare but are not wholly imaginary.
Lots of normies think Netanyahu is a war criminal and so does the ICC. Obviously the biggest crime a leader can commit is losing the war, that's the key issue. Kill lots of people and win - statesmanlike, to be emulated, FDR and Churchill. Kill lots of people and lose - infamous, hated like Nixon.
I don't think that Iran has maxxed out their abilities, if they wanted to destroy the Saudi pipeline to the Red Sea they could, they've demonstrated the ability to hit it. If they can hit US bases and Israel, presumably they can also hit oil facilities.
RandomRanger
Just build nuclear plants!
12d ago
A dam in Pakistan displaced people, Some employers wanted cheaper labour too:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mirpuri_diaspora
Under the British Nationality Act 1948, citizens of Commonwealth countries had the right to enter and settle in the UK freely. They then tightened this up somewhat later on. But in effective terms the gates are still wide open since there are ways around these rules and a political elite that actively resists immigration restriction.
RandomRanger
Just build nuclear plants!
13d ago
The US doesn't have the sortie rate to do this. US aircraft already fired off the bulk of their standoff arsenal and achieved nothing of great significance.
The necessary munitions do not exist, nor do safe airbases to launch such a demanding operation.
Iran is much less vulnerable than the Gulf Arabs in a war of food and water, their retaliation would smash US regional allies and severely hurt Israel, who is also desal dependent.
There is no path to victory for America here.
OK but then Iran would retaliate by razing oil infrastructure across the Middle East. And so Trump would be considered a Bibi-tier war criminal and also ensure very high oil prices, probably a recession.
That's not a victory! Wars are fought to achieve political goals, not just to blow things up.
How would Americans feel if Russia or China attacked key electrical and water infrastructure? How would Americans feel if a great power launched a sneak attack across their whole country? Would they cuck out like pussies or hit back hard? Iran isn't a country of pussies. They didn't give up after taking considerable casualties against Saddam Hussein (not known for liberal war ethics), they kicked him out of Iran and tried to conquer Iraq, only to get bogged down after years of bloody fighting. That was when they were at their weakest and Saddam was supported by both superpowers, Iran was very determined and tolerant of suffering in that war.
They didn't give up when Saddam terror bombed them, they're not gonna give up to US terror bombing.
To beat Iran there would need to be a full scale multi-million man ground invasion or large-scale nuclear attack, which is just not on the cards.
RandomRanger
Just build nuclear plants!
13d ago
It doesn't take a Thiel-tier political genius to see that 'starting a guaranteed-loss war with Iran' will greatly damage Trump and perceived Trump allies.
Fuel prices were very damaging to the Biden administration. Humiliation/botched withdrawal in Afghanistan was pretty damaging. Amp both factors up considerably, what does that do to Trump?
Can't keep draining the SPR forever, can't keep manipulating markets with announcements forever. How can Trump survive midterms if there is a fuel crisis? There will be a fuel crisis by September unless Iran opens the straits. How can Trump survive midterms if he makes objectively humiliating concessions to Iran, who is not exactly beloved by Republican voters? They've been told that the war has been won about a dozen times by now, so a humiliating defeat is not going to go down well.
There can't be an 'Only Trump could go to Iran' moment like Nixon, not after a surprise attack Trump started. Few consider world-historically deft diplomacy to be a Trump strength either.
Thiel is to the left as Soros is to the far-right, they hate him a lot. But the left actually goes after enemies with institutional power.
Now I predict someone is going to come and suggest a military breakthrough will rescue the day for Trump and America. But what military breakthrough can there be? If there are amazing anti-drone weapons or other wonderweapons, why haven't they been used already? Or used against the Houthis earlier? If the straits can be secured, why haven't they been secured already? If there is ongoing work to degrade Iranian capabilities that will soon show fruits, why has the US been so quick to look for a diplomatic solution, why accept a partial truce that logically enables Iran to regroup and prepare for further fighting? If the blockade was going to degrade Iranian oil infrastructure why hasn't this happened already or when Iran lowered oil production in 2020? If Iran were to be more aggressively bombed, how would this prevent Iran destroying more oil infrastructure and heightening the fuel crisis?
RandomRanger
Just build nuclear plants!
13d ago
How is Argentina capable of birthing civilization when they go begging the US or IMF for a bailout every 2-5 years?
Europe and America are immensely richer, more populous and stronger than Argentina. A Brazilified America is still going to be far more capable than Argentina just from its industrial/capital legacy and remaining clusters of strong demographics.
RandomRanger
Just build nuclear plants!
14d ago
Supreme Commander Forged Alliance had the community take over and continue development/multiplayer servers after the company collapsed. Starcraft and Diablo are presumably more popular than Forged Alliance ever was. I think the biggest threat is Blizzard legal department.
Well, the odds it has memorized the autistic game mechanics I invented are nil. But it can still implement and work with them.
Consider this paper for instance, they have the AIs devise experiments to derive physical laws in simulated universes unlike our own, Opus and the strongest GPT do OK: https://arxiv.org/abs/2605.26087
They can't have memorized imaginary physics. With sufficient repetition learning, creativity and intelligence emerge. Do we not hone mathematical talent by repetition? Github is a pretty diverse space, if there's some some set of components needed to make cool things, good odds they are on github. What isn't on github could be assembled from what is. Perhaps all one needs to do to write arbitrary software is assemble all the pieces in such a way as to meet the goal.
????
How does this happen? The US expended a huge amount of its munitions arsenal on Iran and achieved what?
Somewhere around 30% Tomahawk, >20% JASSM, ~20% SM-3/SM-6 - more like half of THAAD, PrSM.
They didn't stop Iran firing missiles and drones at whatever remains of US radar and bases in the region. They didn't open the straits of Hormuz forcefully. The straits are still closed. The oil is bottled up, Iran controls the straits. US says 'oh we blew up all these missiles' but that doesn't change the facts on the ground. Iran's missiles and drone forces are going to disappear from negotiations when they're the forces that won Iran the war? These aren't US missiles, they're not ridiculously expensive and can be quickly rebuilt. The drones are cheaper than cheap.
They just did man. USA just took a big fat L. Because America lacks the power to accomplish all these ambitious military goals against forces specifically designed to counter their techniques. America tried to bomb Iran's missile forces into submission and failed. That is why the Gulf Arabs are apparently going to pay war reparations to Iran. It's not a sign of strength when the loot flows from US allies to Iran, it's a sign of weakness. It's a sign of weakness when the sanctions campaign designed to help pressure the regime into collapse is to be withdrawn, when Trump has to return all these Iranian assets.
So far as I can see, Iran is getting things they didn't have before the war, like sanctions relief and return of assets. The US is getting nothing new. Nuclear negotiations are being put off into the future.
Dressing it up like an anime trope is just cope, a loss is a loss. Trump hates Iran and he was forced by Iranian strength to agree to things he really didn't want to do. He railed and railed against Obama returning a small fraction of Iran's assets. He's worsened America's position at vast expense.
So why didn't you? USAF tried and failed. Iran kept launching rockets. Iran can do something about US bombing, they can win wars, they can close the straits and impose oil pressure on America and the rest of the world. We just saw that. This is what an Iranian victory looks like. Trump was militarily strapped down on Dr Goldfinger's laser-table, watching the beam approach his gentleman's area and so he squealed. He lived to tell the tale and may yet weasel away with limited losses but that is not a win!
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