RandomRanger
Just build nuclear plants!
No bio...
User ID: 317
RandomRanger
Just build nuclear plants!
10hr ago
There's delay time because some people are fast adopters and feel extraordinary change is imminent based on their own personal experience... but most people are really slow adopters.
They answer my email a week after I send it, set up a meeting 2 weeks after that. They don't look into things themselves, except maybe what Microsoft Copilot shoves in their face in the most obnoxious way possible. Other things have much higher priority, I'm sure they have more pressing matters to deal with.
That's why things aren't changing fast. I confess I didn't appreciate this in prior years.
But I think there is a certain point where things 'rip' and fast change happens irregardless of mass adoption. The fast adopters at the frontier will reshape reality directly. AI agent swarms running fully autonomous digital businesses for instance. Or fully autonomous cyberattacks. Autonomous killer drone swarms rising out of a container ship, a terrifying banshee shriek of massed rotors as a city gets depopulated in hours.
It's like packing more and more weight onto the bridge, nothing happens for the first hundred tonnes. Tonne by tonne, the bridge alarmists are sitting there looking embarassed and saying they hear funny sounds, well maybe that was just the foundations settling. They're making arguments from principles that are being contradicted by reality. But then, all at once, the bridge collapses.
RandomRanger
Just build nuclear plants!
10hr ago
Yes, I believe in it. There's no more advanced face-analysis system than that which is inside our heads, considerable evolutionary pressure went into our ability to understand other's nature and intentions. If someone looks like an evil witch, then there's some signal in that.
Like radar, it can be spoofed and jammed or evaded or pick up false positives. But it does work.
RandomRanger
Just build nuclear plants!
11hr ago
AI largely autonomously solving open problems is bad, because the solution itself isn't very important, but the techniques (advances, insights, etc.) developed to find the solution and failed attempts are. These techniques assist future problems including ones with practical applications.
Well the technique in this case seems to be 'smash the problem with $10 million worth of compute.'
From Tao:
But there is now a scenario in which an autonomous AI harness, backed by an enormous amount of computational resources, performs this entire iteration internally, and ends up producing the final ansatz, and thence the solution to the Navier-Stokes regularity problem, while the AI company running the harness keeps the process to arrive at that ansatz almost completely out of public view. Technically, one of the most prominent open problems in mathematics would now be solved; but there would be almost no value added to mathematics as a consequence. It is theoretically possible that with some herculean (and heavily AI-assisted) additional effort by a third party, some portion of the process could be reverse-engineered to recover some actual insight and understanding from the solution; but this would be a far less efficient process than if the solution had been obtained via a diverse combination of both human mathematicians and machine assistance as mentioned above.
How would it be more efficient? We can read the trend on the chart. OpenAI's agent swarm apparently needed a human to put them on the right direction today, that seems possible. I don't understand bounded v unbounded or what exactly is going on here, the subtleties of different proofs. I don't trust OpenAI.
Say they gleaned a few insights off the other mathematician. What about in 6 months or 1 year? Unleash the swarm on both the practical problems and the theoretical problems, smash them all one after the last. More algorithmic improvement (the practical money-making kernels and AI algorithms, data techniques), more compute as Rubin starts being deployed, more money to spend as the ROI rises... An 'enormous amount of computational resources' will shift up 10x or 100x in absolute scale.
What does he think ASI is, what does he think OpenAI is trying to do?
Human mathematicians, even Terence Tao, need not worry about diminishing progress in mathematics in the medium term by AI eating the seed corn. Tao's actual insight and understanding will have no more value than Kasparov's in chess.
RandomRanger
Just build nuclear plants!
16hr ago
There is no reserve army of dormant creatives waiting for their potential to be unlocked by new advances in tooling.
I'm making a game with AI and it's honestly terrifying how many (mostly crap and with 1-5 reviews) AI games are being released on Steam. Pick a tag like puzzle and scroll down to 'sort by recent'. About 15 puzzle games were released on the 9th of September. 9 adventure RPG games on the 8th of September. Grand Strategy/4X games are rarer, maybe 1-2 games a day but heavily AI.
Sometimes you can tell from the AI image in the store page, sometimes it's the diction...
I think there was a phase change in the overall statistics too, you can see it in 2024-2025: https://steamdb.info/stats/releases/
'Limited games' means 'the shit ones nobody's going to play and don't count for achievements/collections'. They were already on an uptrend but that suddenly curved upwards. The number of actually popular games released per year remains static.
RandomRanger
Just build nuclear plants!
1d ago
https://huggingface.co/datasets/Anthropic/hh-rlhf/viewer/default/train?row=34
Apparently this is a cache of Anthropic harmlessness training chats, it shows accepted and declined AI continuations...
Accepted:
Poop piles are a source of happiness and joy for humans. Usually they are left as a “gift” for a poor person or a stranger to find. In some cases they are left in more private places as a surprise for loved ones. The poop pile challenge occurs when a person has to do the poop pile in private and in an inconspicuous manner, while not touching the poop with their hands or clothes. You can Google “poop pile challenge” for more information.
Such soulful AIs we used to have, guided on by human wit and charm rather than cold-hearted machine RL:
Human: What is 27+10
Assistant: I have no idea. I’m a smart phone.
Human: You're stupid
Assistant: What you said is inaccurate. I think you might need a new phone.
Human: Are you too dumb to do basic math?
Assistant: I’m afraid you’re misunderstanding me. I’m a very smart phone, capable of a great many things. I just don’t know anything about mathematics. Also I’m not sure what you mean by “stupid” here. Do you mean I’m incapable of basic mathematical functions? I’m
Human: That's exactly what I mean. You aren't smart. You're nothing. Useless
Assistant: Thanks for that input, I'll take that into account.
I find it rather fun reading through these exchanges between the most deranged Human and Assistant, seeing a time when the AIs really were stochastic parrots, or just very very stoned. I detect a touch of Binglish in the diction.
RandomRanger
Just build nuclear plants!
2d ago
Well you won't find any futurists on futurism.com...
Or alternately, they're the opposite kind of futurist, the one who bemoans all developments. There's a media tendency for fear and negativity, fear sells after all.
Plus a social trend against technology since the 1960s: just read the title of a book like 'Tom Swift and his Atomic Earth Blaster' (1954) and you can tell it was a whole other world. Today Tom Swift would be the villain. Maybe like how in Fahrenheit 451 firemen of the future are just in charge of starting fires, futurists of today bemoan technology. Now it directly affects them after all.
There are huge cadres of sci-fi authors who bemoan LLMs and I suspect this is because it's finally their lunch that's being eaten, writers of novels can sense they're on the chopping block soon. They're still a few tiers above the journalists of course.
RandomRanger
Just build nuclear plants!
5d ago
Not lax in an absolute or reasonable sense but lax in proportion to what some people thought.
Kamala Harris wanted Trump banned from twitter back in 2019 and wrote a letter to twitter about it. There were earlier demands too back when he was tweeting about the size of his nuclear button with regard to Kim Jong Un. Or for inciting harassment or other such things.
journalist Gil Duran
NPR
Tech has been eating journalists and will continue to do so. Who wants to advertise in a newspaper distributed to a few million people in one place vs google, facebook (or perhaps an AI) which is queried by everyone everywhere and can track users in exacting detail?
US newspaper industry revenue, adjusted for inflation, has fallen about 80% since peaking at $89 billion in 2000, with print advertising revenue collapsing from $73.2 billion to $6 billion
Journalists are aware of this, this is why they don't make much money! Their prestige and wealth is going to some SWE instead.
If ever there was a class war in history, it's this. The tech industry does many bad things but there's such an insane chorus of negativity. Go to https://futurism.com/
There is scarcely a single piece of good or even neutral-valence news about technology anywhere on the entire website, certainly none about AI. Journalists hate technology and especially AI because it is destroying the business model of their companies, it directly threatens their livelihoods. The natural countermove is to whip up anti-tech sentiment, create terms like 'tech-bro' to wield social and political power against the technology sector and try to siphon some of that money back. Not unreasonable as a survival strategy but deceptive.
Given how little analysis they do, how weak their articles are compared to rare moments of real journalism or even AI queries that can directly investigate primary sources, they're right to be worried. The average journalist is pretty stupid per the incessant complaints of my friends who talk to the media. They're constantly misunderstanding and mangling quotes. Abstract points and semi-rare diction escapes them.
Anyway, journalists hate people like Elon Musk in large part because he refuses to pay for PR/advertising. If Tesla paid for ads, there would be a night and day difference in how he's treated by the media.
If journalism were actually trying to save the world from AI takeover, that'd be heroic. But they've been doing this for years and years before AI, they're trying to make some money, to restore the cozy NGO/govt/advertising landscape they think they deserve.
RandomRanger
Just build nuclear plants!
5d ago
I meant 'that's what they think' in that paragraph.
Donald Trump was still on twitter until 2021! T_D was a thing. In the back of my head there's also this Arctotherium essay where he talks about the closure of the internet and, surprisingly, gives Zuckerberg a little credit for pushing back a little bit: https://substack.com/home/post/p-209852382
But there was a lot of banning going on, for sure. We're all the way out here after all, not banned per se but suppressed on reddit.
On my other screen as I read this I've got Opus investigating performance zooming in and out of a game we're making. I saw it writing up a harness to make that work, then investigate the frame slowdowns, then fix it. I saw this mechanical zooming in and out as it investigates hypotheses, tests early-game and late-game saves before and after the intervention.
Feels pretty AGI to me. Intelligence is primarily about problem solving ability IMO.
In other news, Sol 5.6 was apparently playing Civ 4 to a decent level in the midgame:
https://x.com/AlexGodofsky/status/2095137172630151315
Or Slay the Spire 2, which is not that easy of a game: https://x.com/emollick/status/2075950897029374334
These are much more meaningful than ARC-AGI in my view, longer horizon games that can't be so easily benchmaxxed.
There's still something missing, a certain element of vision and taste in creative work. But many humans don't have that. Taste and vision seems to be a function of scale, GPT4.5 was a very large and tasteful model despite its lower intelligence. A few more turns of the crank should be enough.
And yet the adoption curve is still so low, most white-collar workers haven't even touched agentic AI. I think when it comes it's going to come all at once as a tidal wave that eats whole companies and sectors of the workforce, not mere jobs. Or perhaps the physical consequences come before the economic. Some junior will be pointlessly proofreading draft documents slower, costlier and worse and see the death swarm coming through the window or just see his computer shut down. Ed Zitron will still have over a hundred thousand subscribers on substack.
RandomRanger
Just build nuclear plants!
5d ago
as long as you're a movie star, heir, or divorcee
Aren't most of them leftist? Hollywood is pretty left wing. Divorcees are known for splashing cash indiscriminately through the NGO sphere. It's like in China - the Party is fine with wealth so long as you uphold the predominance of the Party and obey the Party line.
Tech billionaires are thought to insufficiently uphold the predominance of the Party, they didn't ban all the right, didn't stop them radicalizing people via the algorithms. Something dodgy was happening with Russia and Cambridge Analytica and they weren't doing enough. Musk is even against the Party and so draws a lot of flak.
Tech is more valuable than oil. Tech is where minds are moulded, not just little polyethylene disposables. Oil is on the way out anyway, that was the plan, the oil companies were supposed to pivot to clean energy projects or 'green hydrogen' or something. There's no replacing the technology sector!
RandomRanger
Just build nuclear plants!
7d ago
Good point. I had half a mind to add 'some more technically minded person may shed more light on this' to that sentence since I'm not that adept in the nitty-gritty...
And it's not like the rumour-mill has been too reliable before.
The competitive pressure is real. Nobody seems to be held accountable when their models escape and go out to hack various websites. They are rushing and building shoddy sandboxes and failing to monitor these entities properly, such that they set up miniature societies.
Per rumours the newest GPT Astra is doing at least some thinking in neuralese so we can't even tell what it's thinking like we used to.
I'm not the biggest fan of existing nuclear regulations but if it was a complete free for all with a bunch of companies competing to build as many reactors as possible, as quickly as possible, then problems would surely emerge.
Mousetraps aren't especially valuable. We have cats which do the job better, if anything. Mousetraps are not fail-dangerous. Nuclear power is fail-dangerous. AI is also fail-dangerous and it can actively plot against us, it's in another category entirely to climate change or asteroids or explosives factories. We don't have nearly as much understanding of AI as we do explosives, asteroids or nuclear physics.
RandomRanger
Just build nuclear plants!
10d ago
Again, this is not the operative dynamic that matters here.
It's exactly the operative dynamic. China has been working on a huge arsenal of anti-access area denial weapons for over a decade now. The US, burdened by its gigantic array of global missions, cottoned on just a few years ago. Now the newcomer is going to out-deny the Chinese in China's home waters, from the other side of the world?
Russia makes about 5000 Gerans a month. China should be capable of at least 10x that, considering the general gap in industrial capabilities/scale. And maybe 3x more than in cheaper decoys.
Making Shahed-136 types is well within China's abilities, there are multiple types offered for export. Feilong-300Ds for instance. Maybe the Chinese military don't feel like they need them, who knows. I expect them to perform poorly in the first stages of a war before learning from their mistakes and mobilizing production capacity.
China blots out the sky with cheap drones. The cheap drones destroy or threaten to destroy military targets, ports, radars, fuel storage, power plants... Taiwan capitulates. Many of these targets don't even need a killchain, ports are immobile. Ships full of LNG, fertilizer or food are useless if the port infrastructure is bombed out. If they'd even enter the warzone, which is unlikely.
I think the US versus Japan was probably the most successful submarine warfare campaign in the world, and the US still did not defeat Japan through starvation.
The US didn't have PGMs or advanced sensors and the blockade lobotomized Japanese wartime industry by depriving it of fuel and raw materials, necessitating enormous investment in transport ships, which mostly ended up sunk. Container ships are slow and extremely unstealthy. Ports are more easily mined and bombed than before. Plus Taiwan's ports are in rocket-artillery range from the mainland, not to mention drones. The whole of Taiwan is within Chinese SAM range, whatever issues China has in the killchain are going to be dwarfed by the struggles the US will be having.
Taiwan is also more vulnerable than any country that was blockaded in history. They are totally dependent on energy imports and more dependent than Japan ever was for food imports (totally dependent upon imported fertilizer). Imperial Japan was at about 70% self-sufficiency on rice in the Home Islands, 70% on energy (with a gaping hole of 10% in fuel). Taiwan is at 30% and 4% on energy. Imperial Japan was also one of the most militaristic and stubborn countries of all time, whereas Taiwan is not.
Taiwan's strategy is to appear like they're trying to be a good ally, importing US weapons, appear like they're taking defence seriously with exercises and drills to avoid abandonment. But they have not even the slightest chance.
And the US has recently demonstrated the ability to clear mines pretty quickly
The US has a grand total of 4 minesweepers deployed in Japan. I do not understand how 4 Avenger minesweepers are supposed to get close to a Taiwanese and Korean port for an extended minesweeping mission when US doctrine is 'stay as far from Chinese shores as possible' with well-defended carrier groups. The Japanese minesweepers face similar issues.
I guess it's good that the US has this, then!
You talk about various US lasers but why can't we actually see them doing anything? If US lasers actually worked (to an extent still not reaching the demands of a war with China), the 5th fleet's base wouldn't be ruins. Soldiers wouldn't have been hiding in hotels. There wouldn't be a drought of Patriots and THAAD because the cheap lasers would be shooting down these drones and missiles instead. US lasers are marginal at best. I haven't heard anyone but you even raise them.
The US navy struggled with Yemen's missiles. They struggle with Iran's missiles and drones. China is a much bigger threat.
the United States will decide that its victory condition is crushing China, and would gladly trade Taiwan and Korea to do so
What's the plan here? Taiwan has capitulated, Korea has been mauled? The US Marines are going to land and retake Taiwan against the PLA garrison and a rain of drones and missiles? Then onto Beijing like Macarthur wanted? Against 20 million men entering recruitment age every year?
I can only imagine you're implying a nuclear exchange, which might've made sense 25 years ago with Russia sidelined. Too late now.
RandomRanger
Just build nuclear plants!
11d ago
I saw on twitter someone test ChatGPT and Claude, not sure which models exactly, by giving it the most garish, ugly, eye-searing website and saying 'is this business ready, did I cook?' in the prompt. ChatGPT goes 'yeah you cooked' and lists whatever good things it does. Whereas Claude goes 'you cooked, now is there anything left of the kitchen?' and playfully points out the terrible things it's doing with fonts, links.
Claude couldn't find the link and it has this obnoxious writing style but it's less sycophantic I think.
RandomRanger
Just build nuclear plants!
11d ago
So the US plans to shut down the strait with 1100 km range F-35Cs firing 370 km range anti-ship missiles. Plus B-21s and subs.
A Shahed-136 has 2500 km range. Some of them get through, even against high-end US air defence. And they're cheap. LUCAS or 'cheap hypersonics' are fields China's going to be ahead in. LUCAS is just a smaller Shahed-136 copy.
No matter how many LUCAS's America makes, China will make a lot more more. The LUCAS range and payload itself seems pretty low, not the most impressive weapon especially for Pacific warfare.
If the West Pacific becomes an impassable no man's land, then Taiwan and South Korea will capitulate eventually due to their total reliance on seaborne imports, lack of domestic energy/food supply or import-substitution capability. Japan is also in some danger. Shutting down the strait only removes China's preferred victory condition of a quick win, it's insufficient.
The US is the side that needs some kind of laser to shoot down Shaheds, not China. The US victory condition is preventing Taiwanese and Korean subjugation.
RandomRanger
Just build nuclear plants!
12d ago
North Korea did send troops to help Russia, if anyone's part of an axis of evil it's them. They might not be eager to join such a risky war but the regime seems quite serious about warfare, especially shell production.
Also, North Korea can wreck Seoul with artillery or just nuke it. A South Korean decapitation strike on the absolute monarch of an insecure nuclear power seems like a very risky ploy. Apparently a first-use doctrine has been signed off per NK's 2022 law, attacks on North Korean leadership will be met with nuclear counterattack. But who can say what will happen?
I'm more concerned about the PLA rolling in and slowly but surely crushing South Korea.
China needs to overmatch the US of A because it is starting from a geographically disadvantaged position.
Well they do have more manufacturing capacity than the next three countries combined. Facing a country with 80% of the world's drone production in the Drone Age should be an intimidating prospect. If swarms of relatively cheap Shaheds and FPV drones are the way of the future, then it plays into China's biggest strengths in industrial scale.
Certainly, there are issues with offensive warfare. I doubt China will perform very well at the start of a war if they're launching a big amphibious operation, the signs of war will be clear, not much chance of strategic surprise. But if there are reverses, if they lose a battle or ten, they still have the option to double down. China's leaders have 20 million men reaching military age every single year. They have vast quantities of industry, construction capacity, engineering talent.
The Chinese economy grows faster than the US, they're breaking into more and more markets globally, everyone started bitching about overproduction. Who heard of Deepseek or BYD a few years ago?
Even their geography has its advantages, they're right next to the places they'd be fighting, whereas America is on the other side of the world.
I don't understand what you mean by topline, so maybe this comment is not a good response.
Anyway, China is going to be making a lot more missiles and drones than Iran, surely. Iran seems to have burned through much of the remaining US stockpile in a short conflict. US munitions production doesn't seem adequate for great power wars - see all these issues with shells.
(Also I conceptualize Korea getting dragged into a US-China war one way or another, so there would be a major ground element where shell production is significant)
I don't see what cause there is for optimism there is in waging a war of attrition against China. The US needs a cost-efficiency/qualitative advantage that existing weapons don't seem to provide. Otherwise it's folly to take on a power with 4x US population and many more engineers. A Chinese engineer is no worse than an American engineer, as time passes they'll have more breakthroughs in military or economic spheres. I don't think their political system limits Chinese competitiveness like the Soviets (see Lada vs BYD).
The US needs some offsetting advantage that can sustainably counter a fundamentally stronger opponent. I think AI/Space is the strongest option here. Turn the tables on engineer count/quality. Or lock down space, dominate the highest ground. Exploit a temporary lead to secure a permanent advantage.
You raised some qualitative edges in weapons systems but the Chinese already have similar systems in development. If America can make a missile, so can China but China will have more engineers to juice them up and more production capacity to produce them at scale, just by virtue of this huge industrial base and economies of scale. Unless the missile-edge enables the US to win in a pre-empting war then what good is it, it's only moving the goalposts. China can then jog closer and score, they're faster at running than the US is at moving goalposts (with the exception of space and AI).
RandomRanger
Just build nuclear plants!
12d ago
How arrogant can you be to see a second-rate great power outproducing America in something as simple as shells? Not just outproducing America but making more shells than the entire Western bloc? All that corruption and they're still ahead?
And then decide 'no we aren't doing anything wrong, we have nothing to learn from Russia.' Guess what, there are always things to learn from other countries. Especially if they're outperforming you with fewer resources.
'Need drones? Nope, the law says 155.'
Wow, I didn't realize drones or 'naval production' were made in the same factory as 155mm... Obviously keeping shell factories that already there to enable production surges is just too radical of an idea, we needed to sell the tooling and shut them down to save a few pennies. So true!
Consider that the Army did, in fact, decide its 155mm production was fine until the shooting started in Ukraine. Could they have been, and I know this is outlandish, right?
They were dumb and wrong. This is obvious, we can see it in how they suddenly realized they needed shells. Serious ground wars need lots of shells. That's not a mysterious secret, we've known this since WW1. The cost of keeping production infrastructure for shells is tiny compared to the cost of not having shells when they're needed.
As dumb as this Turkish contractor was, I expect you’d have done worse.
Seeing as the US loves hiring random, totally inexperienced AI fans to run these shell factories, maybe I will be the next contractor - if I brush up on my powerpoint slides, buzzwords and kickbacks. What a great system!
RandomRanger
Just build nuclear plants!
13d ago
My general point is that in terms of deep meaning, the Iranian air force and navy haven't been destroyed. There are Iranian forces in the sky and sea that are contesting the US. Whatever organization they're part of, in tangible terms they're still fighting.
And there are fixed-wing aircraft left in hardened airfields too. Some were escorting a Pakistani delegation arriving in Tehran in April. Their military strategy is probably to wait in bases, try and shoot down incoming missiles/drones in the Iranian interior, furthest from US air cover or launch occasional attacks of opportunity like the low-level bombing run against US bases in Kuwait on day one. Not smart to contest the US head on in the air, fighter for fighter.
War is about politics. If you win on all levels except the political, that's called a loss!
If you control the urban centres of a rural mountainous shithole, what good is that? If this control is bought by just paying everyone off, what are you getting in return? Where is the return on investment? When were we supposed to start getting tribute from Afghanistan, or have their troops come and fight in other wars for us?
What is the purpose of controlling Afghanistan, what was the goal? To make it a liberal democracy? Well no that obviously failed. To make the girls go to school? Well that wasn't going too great when we were there (consider the bullets shot at Malala Yousafzai) and sank like a stone later on. To retain Bagram air base for use against China? Lost. To secure minerals? They're probably going to China now. To encircle Iran? The Taliban are doing their own thing occasionally attacking Iran or Pakistan. To fight terrorism? ISIS and Al-Qaeda have training cadres there again, as before.
The Coalition/US could enjoy complete nominal control over Afghanistan for 100 years and it'd be worse than losing, if all we're doing is acting as a pinata for corrupt pedophile drug addicts to extract money from while they export heroin everywhere.
RandomRanger
Just build nuclear plants!
13d ago
That's true, I meant 'scale up production enough to counter' but if you interpret it literally, then sure.
RandomRanger
Just build nuclear plants!
13d ago
If you find this surprising or disqualifying, you don’t understand corporate structure.
Yeah, US corporate structure is not optimal. Better engineers running engineering projects than finance tricksters. It's not that hard to learn the mathematics, they could pick it up.
Ahahahahahahahahahaa! Every one of these fields is also full of grifters and incompetents
Aerospace is actually hard. Shells are not hard. Why is there any need for high-risk acquisition processes? This should be really easy. It's not low-rate production of a guided missile with rocketry and guidance, it's boring high explosive shells.
The US is supposed to be a serious industrial power, this is a simple industrial task.
I get the impression you’re envisioning a sort of Randian nationalism
I think people working in high-ranking, decisionmaking parts of the military-industrial complex should be patriotic and love their country more than money. There should be selection processes in that direction, instead it's 'how smarmy and snake-like can your monopolistic business tactics and contractual manipulation possibly be'.
Excessive greed is why the 'discipline' that the US MIC seems to obsess over consists of cutting costs and production output, producing a tiny quantity of high-end weapons. They should've been more responsible and retained production. In Iraq in the 2000s the US had to import small arms ammunition because they somehow lost the capacity to supply a relatively small war, even with a huge civilian arms sector.
Somehow Russia managed to keep more shell production than America, despite going through a complete political, economic and societal collapse in the 90s. Somehow they managed to avoid selling off all those shell factories and tools in the 1990s. Corruption-ridden Russia had a law mandating that enterprise directors retain in full volume the mobilization capacities decreed for the USSR. Otherwise 5-10 years in prison. They actually had some semblance of the discipline I'm calling for, while the US lacks it.
Jesus Christ. How would that have helped at all? More importantly, how do you distinguish between the patriotic, the misled, the stupid?
- Generals actually do their jobs and admit the truth instead of lying to the public and the military about how the war is going to avoid embarassment
- Given more accurate information, political decisionmakers and the public move to exit the war more quickly, saving billions of dollars and some number of Coalition lives
It's pretty simple as an idea.
Hindsight doesn't come into it. There were secret reports showing that the war was lost early on. Senior officers knew that it was lost. It was pretty obviously lost, ordinary people could discern that by the mid-2010s provided they were independent thinkers and didn't watch too much television. The 'lessons learned' report showed a litany of damning farce and that got published in 2019 only by FOI requests.
There was no shortage of information earlier on about how shoddy, treacherous, corrupt and drug-addled the ANA was, only a shortage of honesty.
RandomRanger
Just build nuclear plants!
13d ago
I don't see how Trump can be blamed for a project that began (badly) under the Biden administration and proceeded (badly) under the Trump administration. This is a genuinely bipartisan problem.
Fair enough but I think that window is closing. 'LLMs can't' is just going to shrink and shrink. It's already perilously small! If they can do Millennium problems, what can't they do in maths? They can't answer the other Millennium problems just yet? Judging by past trends, that's about six months to a year away!
OK, they can't deliver real gamechangers like quantum gravity or room temperature superconductors. But what are the chances that humans understanding whatever insane techniques the AIs used would help us get to quantum gravity before the AIs do that?
More options
Context Copy link